Caspian Report - Issue: 08 - Fall 2014

FATIH MACIT, HOLLY REHM
14
these two states was the fastest in
the country during this period. 27
The economic effects of the shale oil
and gas boom have been especially
striking in North Dakota. In 2002,
North Dakota had the second smallest
economy in the country with
economic output of just $24.7 billion
a year. In the ten years since, North
Dakota has doubled its economy to
$49.4 billion a year. This massive increase
in economic output was driven
primarily by the oil and gas boom
in the Bakken shale play. 28 The state’s
GDP growth of 9.7 percent was the
country’s fastest in 2013, while its
unemployment rate of 2.9 percent
was the lowest nationally. North Dakota’s
one-year population growth
of 3.1 percent is also the highest in
the country, as people flock to the
state to fill the jobs mainly created
by the oil and gas sector. In fact, the
economic growth of the five fastest
growing states in 2013—including
Wyoming, Oklahoma, and West Virginia—was
primarily the result of oil,
gas, and coal production. 29
Though shale gas production actually
fell in 2013, most experts predict that
U.S. shale production will continue to
grow in the future. The IEA estimates
natural gas output in the U.S. will increase
from an estimated 650 bcm
in 2011 to 840 bcm in 2035. This
projection puts the U.S. ahead of Russia
as the largest gas producer, and
ahead of Saudi Arabia as the largest
hydrocarbon producer in the world. 30
This increase is due almost exclusively
to shale gas sources. The EIA estimates
that shale gas production will
grow from 7.8 trillion cubic feet (tcf)
in 2011 to 16.7 tcf in 2040. The EIA
also projects that the share of shale
gas in total U.S. gas production will
increase from 40 percent in 2012 to
53 percent in 2040. 31 By comparison,
27.
Stephen P.A. Brown and Mine K. Yücel (2013), “The Shale Gas and Tight Oil Boom: U.S. States’
Economic Gains and Vulnerabilities,” New York, New York, 2-3.
28.
Blake Ellis, “How North Dakota’s economy doubled in 11 years,” http://money.cnn.
com/2014/06/11/news/economy/north-dakota-economy/. Accessed June 17, 2014.
29.
Alexander E.M. Hess and Thomas C. Frohlich, “10 states with the fastest growing economies,”
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/06/14/states-fastest-growingeconomies-new/10377735/.
Accessed June 17, 2014.
30.
IEA (2013), “World Energy Outlook 2013,” Paris, France, 108-109.
31.
EIA (2014), “Annual Energy Outlook 2014,” Washington, DC, MT-23.