Caspian Report - Issue: 08 - Fall 2014

More documents

Recommendations

Info

NINO KALANDADZE 58 become comprise a key part of the West’s plan for implementing its energy security concept. A. EUROPEAN ENERGY SECURITY I. INTRODUCTION The ongoing crisis in Ukraine has made the West, and especially the EU, rethink its strategy toward Moscow. Once again Western governments are questioning Russia’s reliability as a partner in international affairs. Energy security is high on the EU agenda. The crisis is unlikely to be resolved any time soon, and Kremlin’s threats to cut off Ukraine’s gas supply, unless it pays the price set by Moscow, are increasingly loud. History is repeating itself. Similar gas disputes have characterised the recent past, carried out by Moscow against its neighbours, including Georgia, 1 Belarus, 2 and Ukraine. In the latter case, several Central and Western European countries were also left without gas supply. 3 Today, again, talks on how to negotiate with Russia are topping the agendas in the EU’s national parliaments. Risks to Europe’s energy security are becoming more and more urgent, given that approximately 50% of Russia’s supply to the West is still delivered through Ukraine, making up a significant proportion of EU’s annual gas consumption. Against this background, Western policy makers are powerfully aware of the need for a common strategy to diversify Europe’s energy supply sources. Even if currently it seems unrealistic to substitute the Russian supply in full, an effective alternative must be found at least to replace the volumes threatened by the prolongation of the Russian – Ukrainian crisis. II. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND AND CHALLENGES OF DIVERSIFICATION Access to natural resources such as hydrocarbons has for decades represented one of the major challenges for international security and stability. So far, there seems to be no clearalternative to substitute fossil energy, excluding nuclear energy with the latter requiring huge financial investment and bearing high political costs. Thus gas and oil remain the preferred energy sources for a major part of the world economy. 4 According to a 2013 survey, EU member states are collectively the world’s largest energy im- 1. January 2006, two blasts shut down the main pipeline supplying Georgia with Russian gas, leaving the country without gas during one of its coldest winters. The Georgian government classified the attacks as deliberate action against Georgia. The view that this was done deliberately by Russia is substantiated by the fact that explosions took place in the Russiancontrolled North Ossetia, bordering Georgia’s then breakaway South Ossetia (fully occupied by Russian military forces), suspiciously coinciding with the scandalous discovery and public handover of Russian spies by the Georgian government. Finally, the attacks were preceded by gas disputes Russia against Moldova and Ukraine, providing further credence to this assumption. (For further discussion see Victor Yasman, Russia: “Is Georgian Gas Crisis Evidence of Moscow’s New Energy Strategy Radio Free Liberty, January 2006. 2. Russia vs. Belarus gas disputes stretched out over a decade, emerging in 2004 alongside other Russia-Belarus disputes that were to follow almost every year, including gas cut-offs and disputes. Largely, it was understood as a politically motivated move on behalf of Russia, as Gazprom hoped to gain control over Beltransgaz and of its 6,000 km of pipelines, and thereby of the gas transit route delivering gas to Europe. (For further discussion see Chloe Bruce, fraternal Friction or Fraternal fiction: The Gas Factor in Russian-Belarusian Relations, The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, March 2005. 3. David Gow, “Russia-Ukraine Gas Crises intensifies as all European Supplies are cut off”, theguardian.com, Jan 2009. http:// www.theguardian.com/business/2009/jan/07/gas-ukraine 4. International Energy Outlook 2013, US Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/nat_gas.cfm, see also “Recent trends in the Global Energy Oil & Gas Economy”, IISS – Oberoi Lecture, IISS, 14 August 2014, http://www. iiss.org/en/events/events/archive/2013-5126/august-1e98/recent-trends-in-global-energy-1218
porter, importing about 55% of their energy supply-approximately 84% of their oil and 64% of their natural gas. Fifteen EU member states are increasingly reliant on natural gas, in order to reduce carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions. 5 As the European demand for gas is unlikely to decrease, 6 a huge bulk of European energy imports are expected to come from the three major gas suppliers of Europe, namely Norway, Algeria, and Russia. 7 Approximately 30% of the EU’s net gas consumption is provided by Russia. 8 In 2012, Russia accounted for 34% of European natural gas imports, surpassed by Norway as the lead supplier. Algeria is the third-largest supplier to the EU. 9 However, even though there are other suppliers, it seems that Europe will still remain extremely vulnerable to Russian control over gas supplies. As stated by The Economist, while 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) could come from Norway, the scope for further production inside the EU would remain limited. For instance, in the Netherlands public opinion would demand the country to pump less gas, not more. Britain’s gas fields - due to depletion - would further offer no better option. Moreover, North Africa has “proved an unreliable supplier, beset by terrorist threats and other unrest.” Italy’s imports from Libya are also described as a weak option; supplies were down by 11.9% in 2013. Supplies from Algeria were down by a full 40%. 10 5. The European Commission forecasts that EU will import over 80% of its natural gas needs by 2030. Europe’s Energy Security: Options and Challenges to Natural Gas Diversification, CRS, August 2013, P. 5, 59 CASPIAN REPORT, FALL 2014 6. International Energy Outlook 2013, US Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia. gov/forecasts/ieo/nat_gas.cfm, see also “Recent trends in the Global Energy Oil & Gas Economy”, IISS – Oberoi Lecture, IISS, 14 August 2014, http://www.iiss.org/en/events/events/ archive/2013-5126/august-1e98/recent-trends-in-global-energy-1218 7. Europe’s Energy Security: Options and Challenges to Natural Gas Diversification, CRS, August 2013, P. 5, http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42405.pdf 8. Clingendael International Energy Programme, Factsheet, p.1, 2, http://www.clingendaelenergy. com/files.cfmevent=files.download&ui=9C1DEEC1-5254-00CF-FD03186604989704 9. Europe’s Energy Security: Options and Challenges to Natural Gas Diversification, CRS, August 2013, P. 5, http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42405.pdf 10. “Conscious uncoupling”, European energy security, The Economist, Apr 5th 2014, see also http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/nat_gas.cfm
Page 1:
CASPIAN PUBLISHED BY CASPIAN STRATE
Page 4 and 5:
Dear Readers, CASPIAN REPORT 2 It i
Page 6 and 7:
CASPIAN CASPIAN REPORT 4 06 FATIH M
Page 8 and 9:
FATIH MACIT, HOLLY REHM 6 THE U.S.
Page 10 and 11: FATIH MACIT, HOLLY REHM 8 shale rev
Page 12 and 13: FATIH MACIT, HOLLY REHM 10 in the 1
Page 14 and 15: FATIH MACIT, HOLLY REHM 12 SINCE TH
Page 16 and 17: FATIH MACIT, HOLLY REHM 14 these tw
Page 18 and 19: FATIH MACIT, HOLLY REHM 16 LNG’s
Page 20 and 21: FATIH MACIT, HOLLY REHM 18 kets, pa
Page 22 and 23: MANFRED HAFNER 20 THE SOUTHERN GAS
Page 24 and 25: MANFRED HAFNER 22 THE DOCUMENT RECO
Page 26 and 27: MANFRED HAFNER 24 Notwithstanding t
Page 28 and 29: MANFRED HAFNER 26 TANAP, A PROJECTE
Page 30 and 31: MANFRED HAFNER 28 by the Shah Deniz
Page 32 and 33: MANFRED HAFNER 30 Snam Rete Gas has
Page 34 and 35: MANFRED HAFNER 32 THE ESTABLISHMENT
Page 36 and 37: MATTEO VERDA 34 LNG MARKET: TRENDS
Page 38 and 39: MATTEO VERDA 36 traditionally accou
Page 40 and 41: MATTEO VERDA 38 bcm), Brunei (9 bcm
Page 42 and 43: MATTEO VERDA 40 for transport vesse
Page 44 and 45: MATTEO VERDA 42 of the global LNG m
Page 46 and 47: MUBARIZ HASANOV 44 AN OVERVIEW OF E
Page 48 and 49: MUBARIZ HASANOV 46 Figure 1. Primar
Page 50 and 51: MUBARIZ HASANOV 48 Figure 4. Real c
Page 52 and 53: Figure 7. Price of transport fuels
Page 54 and 55: Figure 10. Electricity generation i
Page 56 and 57: Figure 13. Breakdown of electricity
Page 58 and 59: THE SOUTHERN GAS CORRIDOR - WINDOW
Page 62 and 63: NINO KALANDADZE 60 This picture mak
Page 64 and 65: NINO KALANDADZE 62 Security policy.
Page 66 and 67: NINO KALANDADZE 64 There are benefi
Page 68 and 69: NINO KALANDADZE 66 tion of Crimea b
Page 70 and 71: RADU DUDAU 68 THE UKRAINE CRISIS: L
Page 72 and 73: RADU DUDAU 70 RUSSIA HAS FREQUENTLY
Page 74 and 75: RADU DUDAU 72 Russia, which depends
Page 76 and 77: RADU DUDAU 74 WHAT INTERNATIONAL LA
Page 78 and 79: RADU DUDAU 76 THE NEAR FUTURE WILL
Page 80 and 81: RADU DUDAU 78 THE UKRAINIAN GOVERNM
Page 82 and 83: RADU DUDAU 80 parliament decided to
Page 84 and 85: Black Sea Serpents’ Island. RADU
Page 86 and 87: RADU DUDAU 84 (where Russia holds v
Page 88 and 89: RADU DUDAU 86 IN TERMS OF ENERGY, A
Page 90 and 91: WHY RUSSIA SIGNED A MAJOR GAS CONTR
Page 92 and 93: MESUT HAKKI CASIN 90 I will focus o
Page 94 and 95: Russian President Vladimir Putin sh
Page 96 and 97: Figure II: Russian energy infrastru
Page 98 and 99: Kazakhstan President Nursultan Naza
Page 100 and 101: MESUT HAKKI CASIN 98 economic devel
Page 102 and 103: Figure IV: China’s gas import sou
Page 104 and 105: THANOS DOKOS, THEODORE TSAKIRIS 102
Page 110 and 111:
THANOS DOKOS, THEODORE TSAKIRIS 108
Page 112 and 113:
Page 114 and 115:
Page 116 and 117:
ARZU YORKAN 114 TURKEY’S RENEWABL
Page 118 and 119:
ARZU YORKAN 116 is 12 th in the wor
Page 120 and 121:
Figure 4: Solar Energy Potential At
Page 122 and 123:
ARZU YORKAN 120 Figure 8: The share
Page 124 and 125:
ARZU YORKAN 122 THE STRATEGY PAPER
Page 126 and 127:
ARZU YORKAN 124 TURKEY HAS NOT YET
Page 128 and 129:
CASPIAN
Page 130 and 131:
THE EU AGREEMENT ON THE 2030 FRAMEW
Page 132 and 133:
EU Commission President Jean Claude
Page 134 and 135:
ROMAN RUKOMEDA 132 THE PHANTOM OF R
Page 136 and 137:
Russia’s gas giant Gazprom CEO, A
Page 138:
CASPIAN CALL FOR PAPERS 136 Caspian
show all

Caspian Report - Issue: 08 - Fall 2014

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?