Caspian Report - Issue: 08 - Fall 2014

NINO KALANDADZE
58
become comprise a key part of the
West’s plan for implementing its energy
security concept.
A. EUROPEAN ENERGY SECURITY
I. INTRODUCTION
The ongoing crisis in Ukraine has
made the West, and especially the
EU, rethink its strategy toward Moscow.
Once again Western governments
are questioning Russia’s reliability
as a partner in international
affairs. Energy security is high on
the EU agenda. The crisis is unlikely
to be resolved any time soon, and
Kremlin’s threats to cut off Ukraine’s
gas supply, unless it pays the price
set by Moscow, are increasingly loud.
History is repeating itself. Similar
gas disputes have characterised the
recent past, carried out by Moscow
against its neighbours, including
Georgia, 1 Belarus, 2 and Ukraine. In
the latter case, several Central and
Western European countries were
also left without gas supply. 3 Today,
again, talks on how to negotiate with
Russia are topping the agendas in
the EU’s national parliaments. Risks
to Europe’s energy security are
becoming more and more urgent,
given that approximately 50% of
Russia’s supply to the West is still delivered
through Ukraine, making up
a significant proportion of EU’s annual
gas consumption. Against this
background, Western policy makers
are powerfully aware of the need for
a common strategy to diversify Europe’s
energy supply sources. Even if
currently it seems unrealistic to substitute
the Russian supply in full, an
effective alternative must be found at
least to replace the volumes threatened
by the prolongation of the Russian
– Ukrainian crisis.
II. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
AND CHALLENGES OF
DIVERSIFICATION
Access to natural resources such as
hydrocarbons has for decades represented
one of the major challenges
for international security and stability.
So far, there seems to be no clearalternative
to substitute fossil energy,
excluding nuclear energy with the
latter requiring huge financial investment
and bearing high political costs.
Thus gas and oil remain the preferred
energy sources for a major part of the
world economy. 4 According to a 2013
survey, EU member states are collectively
the world’s largest energy im-
1.
January 2006, two blasts shut down the main pipeline supplying Georgia with Russian gas, leaving the country without gas
during one of its coldest winters. The Georgian government classified the attacks as deliberate action against Georgia.
The view that this was done deliberately by Russia is substantiated by the fact that explosions took place in the Russiancontrolled
North Ossetia, bordering Georgia’s then breakaway South Ossetia (fully occupied by Russian military forces),
suspiciously coinciding with the scandalous discovery and public handover of Russian spies by the Georgian government.
Finally, the attacks were preceded by gas disputes Russia against Moldova and Ukraine, providing further credence to this
assumption. (For further discussion see Victor Yasman, Russia: “Is Georgian Gas Crisis Evidence of Moscow’s New Energy
Strategy Radio Free Liberty, January 2006.
2.
Russia vs. Belarus gas disputes stretched out over a decade, emerging in 2004 alongside other Russia-Belarus disputes
that were to follow almost every year, including gas cut-offs and disputes. Largely, it was understood as a politically
motivated move on behalf of Russia, as Gazprom hoped to gain control over Beltransgaz and of its 6,000 km of pipelines,
and thereby of the gas transit route delivering gas to Europe. (For further discussion see Chloe Bruce, fraternal Friction or
Fraternal fiction: The Gas Factor in Russian-Belarusian Relations, The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, March 2005.
3.
David Gow, “Russia-Ukraine Gas Crises intensifies as all European Supplies are cut off”, theguardian.com, Jan 2009. http://
www.theguardian.com/business/2009/jan/07/gas-ukraine
4.
International Energy Outlook 2013, US Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/nat_gas.cfm,
see also “Recent trends in the Global Energy Oil & Gas Economy”, IISS – Oberoi Lecture, IISS, 14 August 2014, http://www.
iiss.org/en/events/events/archive/2013-5126/august-1e98/recent-trends-in-global-energy-1218