Market Economics | Interest Rate Strategy - BNP PARIBAS ...

Table 2: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts
Japan
UK
Sweden
Core CPI SA
Core CPI NSA
Headline CPI RPI
CPI CPIF
Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y
2009 100.3 - -1.3 100.3 - -1.3 110.8 - 2.1 213.7 - -0.5 299.7 - -0.3 191.2 - 1.9
2010 (1) 99.3 - -1.0 99.3 - -1.0 114.3 - 3.1 223.4 - 4.5 303.9 - 1.4 195.0 - 2.0
2011 (1) 98.9 - -0.3 98.9 - -0.3 116.5 - 2.0 229.7 - 2.8 310.6 - 2.2 197.7 - 1.3
Q3 2009 99.9 - -2.3 100.1 - -2.3 111.3 - 1.5 214.4 - -1.4 299.5 - -1.2 191.6 - 1.6
Q4 2009 99.7 - -1.8 99.9 - -1.8 112.1 - 2.1 216.9 - 0.6 301.3 - -0.4 193.2 - 2.3
Q1 2010 99.7 - -1.3 99.3 - -1.2 112.9 - 3.2 219.3 - 4.0 301.2 - 1.0 194.0 - 2.6
Q2 2010 (1) 99.2 - -1.3 99.2 - -1.3 114.4 - 3.4 223.5 - 5.1 302.8 - 1.1 194.9 - 2.1
Q3 2010 (1) 98.9 - -1.0 99.2 - -0.9 114.5 - 2.9 224.6 - 4.8 303.6 - 1.4 194.8 - 1.7
Q4 2010 (1) 99.2 - -0.5 99.4 - -0.5 115.2 - 2.7 226.0 - 4.2 308.1 - 2.2 196.4 - 1.7
Q1 2011 (1) 99.0 - -0.7 98.6 - -0.7 115.5 - 2.3 227.3 - 3.7 306.7 - 1.8 195.8 - 0.9
Q2 2011 (1) 98.9 - -0.3 98.9 - -0.3 116.5 - 1.8 229.2 - 2.6 309.4 - 2.2 197.5 - 1.3
Jan 10 99.6 -0.1 -1.3 99.2 -0.6 -1.3 112.4 -0.2 3.4 217.9 0.0 3.7 299.8 -0.6 0.6 193.0 -0.2 2.6
Feb 10 99.8 0.2 -1.2 99.2 0.0 -1.2 112.9 0.4 3.0 219.2 0.6 3.7 301.6 0.6 1.2 194.2 0.6 2.7
Mar 10 99.8 0.0 -1.2 99.5 0.3 -1.2 113.5 0.5 3.4 220.7 0.7 4.4 302.3 0.2 1.2 194.7 0.3 2.5
Apr 10 99.3 -0.5 -1.5 99.2 -0.3 -1.5 114.2 0.6 3.7 222.8 1.0 5.3 302.4 0.0 1.0 194.8 0.0 2.2
May 10 99.3 0.0 -1.2 99.3 0.1 -1.2 114.4 0.2 3.3 223.6 0.4 5.1 302.9 0.2 1.2 195.0 0.1 2.1
Jun 10 (1) 99.1 -0.2 -1.1 99.2 -0.1 -1.1 114.5 0.1 3.2 224.1 0.2 5.0 303.0 0.0 0.9 195.0 0.0 1.9
Jul 10 (1) 98.9 -0.2 -1.1 99.0 -0.2 -1.1 114.2 -0.3 3.0 223.8 -0.1 4.9 302.7 -0.1 1.3 194.2 -0.4 1.6
Aug 10 (1) 98.9 0.0 -0.9 99.2 0.2 -0.9 114.7 0.5 3.0 225.0 0.5 4.9 302.2 -0.2 0.9 194.5 0.1 1.5
Sep 10 (1) 98.9 0.0 -0.9 99.3 0.1 -0.9 114.7 0.0 2.9 225.1 0.1 4.6 305.9 1.2 1.9 195.8 0.7 1.8
Oct 10 (1) 99.2 0.3 -0.5 99.6 0.3 -0.5 114.8 0.1 2.8 225.5 0.2 4.4 308.3 0.8 2.4 196.5 0.3 1.8
Nov 10 (1) 99.3 0.1 -0.5 99.4 -0.2 -0.5 115.0 0.2 2.7 225.8 0.1 4.2 307.2 -0.4 2.1 196.5 0.0 1.8
Dec 10 (1) 99.1 -0.2 -0.6 99.2 -0.2 -0.6 115.6 0.5 2.7 226.7 0.4 4.0 308.6 0.5 2.3 196.3 -0.1 1.5
Jan 11 (1) 99.0 -0.1 -0.6 98.6 -0.6 -0.6 115.2 -0.4 2.5 226.3 -0.2 3.9 305.0 -1.2 1.7 195.0 -0.7 1.0
Feb 11 (1) 99.0 0.0 -0.8 98.4 -0.2 -0.8 115.6 0.3 2.4 227.4 0.5 3.7 307.3 0.8 1.9 195.8 0.4 0.8
Mar 11 (1) 99.0 0.0 -0.8 98.7 0.3 -0.8 115.8 0.2 2.0 228.1 0.3 3.4 307.7 0.2 1.8 196.7 0.5 1.0
Apr 11 (1) 99.0 0.0 -0.3 98.9 0.2 -0.3 116.2 0.3 1.8 228.7 0.2 2.7 309.4 0.5 2.3 197.3 0.3 1.3
May 11 (1) 98.9 -0.1 -0.4 98.9 0.0 -0.4 116.6 0.3 1.9 229.4 0.3 2.6 309.2 -0.1 2.1 197.5 0.1 1.3
Jun 11 (1) 98.8 -0.1 -0.3 98.9 0.0 -0.3 116.6 0.1 1.8 229.5 0.1 2.4 309.5 0.1 2.2 197.6 0.0 1.3
Updated
Next
Release
Jun 25
Jun CPI (Jul 30)
Jul 13
Jul CPI (Aug 17)
Jul 08
Jul CPI (Aug 12)
Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts
Chart 6: Japanese CPI (% y/y)
Chart 7: UK CPI (% y/y)
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
Prices are expected to continue falling but the pace of decline is
easing as the economy recovers.
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas
We expect inflation to remain above target for the remainder of the
year, although trending down.
Luigi Speranza/Eoin O’Callaghan 16 July 2010
Market Mover
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