Market Economics | Interest Rate Strategy - BNP PARIBAS ...

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Chart 2: AUD/USD – Pausing before extending rally Aussie was a leader of the June “risk on” trade and once again is a key barometer for risk appetite. Currently 0.95 0.9405 0.9320 0.9390 consolidating near 0.90 0.9005 0.8860 chart 0.8910 resistance and 0.8885 Fibonacci resistance, 0.8735 the bullish mediumterm bias favors extension toward the top of the June up 0.85 0.8580 channel near 0.9070/80. 0.80 0.8070 20-Nov-09 19-Jan-10 18-Mar-10 17-May-10 0.8860 0.8315 14-Jul-10 Source: BNP Paribas USD/JPY is being dragged lower by bearish weekly and daily momentum. This risks a re-test of strong support from the recent twin-low near 87.00 – with a downside break opening a deeper decline toward 86.50- 85.60. 97 95 93 91 89 87 Chart 3: USD/JPY – Rolling over 97.78 93.76 92.32 92.15 94.95 88.00 86.95 85 27-Jul-09 23-Sep-09 84.81 20-Nov-09 19-Jan-10 18-Mar-10 17-May-10 14-Jul-10 Source: BNP Paribas Although weekly momentum remains bearish following the break of the March uptrend on July 1st, the recent $80 decline in spot gold is reminiscent of previous corrective declines seen this year. Any further corrective weakness should be limited to key $1166 support followed by resumption of the February advance. Source: BNP Paribas Chart 4: Gold – Correcting off the June peak 1300.00 1250.00 1226 1200.00 1161 1164 1150.00 1100.00 1050.00 1074 1090 1043 1000.00 20-Nov-09 19-Jan-10 18-Mar-10 1264 1248 17-May-10 14-Jul-10 Andrew Chaveriat 16 July 2010 Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section 54 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Currency Spot Trade Recommendations Date EUR/AUD 1.4675 Sell 1.4875, stop at 1.5075, target 1.3850 15 Jul 2010 EUR/GBP 0.8380 Buy 0.8290, stop at 0.8210, target 0.85 08 Jul 2010 USD/CHF 1.0430 Short from 1.0585, lower stop to 1.06, target 1.0150 08 Jul 2010 USD/JPY 87.35 Short at 88.00, lower stop to 88.60, target 85.00 02 Jul 2010 USD/KZT 147.50 Short at 147.00, stop at 149.50, target 135.00 28 May 2010 EUR/AUD 1.4670 Long from 1.4700 stopped at 1.4340 07 Jul 2010 GBP/USD 1.5365 Short from 1.5165 stopped at 1.53 08 Jul 2010 TRY/CZK 12.95 Long from 13.20 stopped at 12.90 28 May 2010 Source: BNP Paribas Andrew Chaveriat 16 July 2010 Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section 55 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
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Market Economics | Interest Rate St
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Page 9 and 10: we expect residential investment to
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Page 15 and 16: But property prices have barely cor
Page 17 and 18: political leaders persuaded the pub
Page 19 and 20: …average fiscal multiplier is 1,
Page 21 and 22: US: 10y Range Trade with a Receiver
Page 23 and 24: give-up because we’re switching f
Page 25 and 26: term structure models mentioned bel
Page 27 and 28: swaps. The overall volume of USD 9.
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