Market Economics | Interest Rate Strategy - BNP PARIBAS ...

Chart 2: AUD/USD – Pausing before extending rally
Aussie was a leader of
the June “risk on”
trade and once again
is a key barometer for
risk appetite. Currently
0.95
0.9405
0.9320
0.9390
consolidating near 0.90
0.9005
0.8860 chart
0.8910
resistance and 0.8885
Fibonacci resistance,
0.8735
the bullish mediumterm
bias favors
extension toward the
top of the June up
0.85
0.8580
channel near
0.9070/80. 0.80
0.8070
20-Nov-09 19-Jan-10 18-Mar-10 17-May-10
0.8860
0.8315
14-Jul-10
Source: BNP Paribas
USD/JPY is being
dragged lower by
bearish weekly and
daily momentum. This
risks a re-test of strong
support from the
recent twin-low near
87.00 – with a
downside break
opening a deeper
decline toward 86.50-
85.60.
97
95
93
91
89
87
Chart 3: USD/JPY – Rolling over
97.78
93.76
92.32
92.15
94.95
88.00
86.95
85
27-Jul-09
23-Sep-09
84.81
20-Nov-09
19-Jan-10
18-Mar-10
17-May-10
14-Jul-10
Source: BNP Paribas
Although weekly
momentum remains
bearish following the
break of the March
uptrend on July 1st,
the recent $80 decline
in spot gold is
reminiscent of
previous corrective
declines seen this
year. Any further
corrective weakness
should be limited to
key $1166 support
followed by resumption
of the February
advance.
Source: BNP Paribas
Chart 4: Gold – Correcting off the June peak
1300.00
1250.00
1226
1200.00
1161
1164
1150.00
1100.00
1050.00
1074
1090
1043
1000.00
20-Nov-09 19-Jan-10 18-Mar-10
1264
1248
17-May-10 14-Jul-10
Andrew Chaveriat 16 July 2010
Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section
54
www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com