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scenarIo For Increased expansIon
54 Renewable Energy Sources in Figures
Long-term scenario 2010 for renewables expansion
in Germany
The long-term scenario 2010 [134], commissioned by the Federal Environment Ministry, describes
consistent quantity frameworks for the long-term expansion of renewable energy and
of energy supply in general in Germany, and deduces the resulting structural and economic
impacts. The scenarios of the Lead Study 2010 project the development paths for energy supply
in a way that ensures achievement of the over-arching objectives of climate protection, efficiency
and expansion of renewable energy in Germany. However, the Lead Study 2010 was
unable to cover all the aims of the Energy Concept of autumn 2010 1) , which means that it has
a provisional character. Other examples of objectives implemented in the scenarios include
the development of electric mobility, the expansion of combined heat-and-power generation,
and the limitation of biomass use to ecologically acceptable domestic potential.
Strategies for achieving climate objectives: Expansion of renewable energies and
extensive efficiency measures
The development paths of the Lead Study 2010 indicated that final energy consumption
would fall by 38 % by 2050 (compared with 2009). This development – in addition to the
clear restructuring of electricity supply in favour of renewables – makes a contribution to the
marked decrease in primary energy input. Primary energy consumption will fall to 84 % of
its 2009 level by 2020 and about 56 % by 2050. In 2050 Germany will be importing only 32 %
of the present quantity of fossil energy. The renewables share of 18 % of gross final energy
consumption required for 2020 by the EU directive is exceeded in the successful scenarios,
with a figure of 21 %. After 2020, renewables as a whole start to become the dominant energy
source. In the scenarios, their share of primary energy increases to nearly 55 % by 2050. The
restructuring of energy supply is thus very far advanced at that point. More than 85 % of
electricity is supplied by renewable energy sources. In the heat sector, more than half the demand
is met by renewable energy sources. And even in the mobility sector, the contribution
made by renewables (excluding electricity) is already considerable at 42 % of motor fuel requirements.
1) the lead study 2011 is intended to depict all the German government’s objectives, but at the time of going to press it was
still in preparation.