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scenarIo For Increased expansIon
56 Renewable Energy Sources in Figures
Costs and cost-effectiveness: Falling investment costs versus rising
heating fuel costs
The economic analyses applied to the scenarios reveal the following results: After the peak
due to photovoltaic in the years 2009 to 2011, the volume of investment in all renewable energy
installations remains relatively constant at around 18 billion EUR per year. Not until
after 2030 does it show further growth to 22 billion EUR per year. Up to 2009 a total of
around 120 billion EUR was invested in renewable energy installations for power and heat
generation. At a further 202 billion EUR, the cumulative investment volume between 2010
and 2020 will be nearly twice as high. And in the following decades the level will remain
similar, at around 200 billion EUR per decade. In view of the expected decline in costs for the
technologies for generating electricity from renewable energy sources, supply costs of
between 5 and 9 cents per kWh el can be expected in the longer term. Compared with the
costs of using fossil energy sources, the expansion of renewables to date (power, heat and
motor fuels) a total systems analysis cost differential of 71 billion has accumulated up to the
end of 2010. By 2020 they will increase to a maximum of around 200 billion EUR for the total
of all renewable energy sources, i.e. including photovoltaic, assuming a further rise in prices
of fossil fuels. The full positive benefits of renewable energy expansion for the national
economy make themselves felt from about 2025 onwards. By that time the cost gap between
renewable energy and traditional energy supplies has closed, and there is no longer any cost
differential. After that, the use of renewable energy sources saves the economy from incurring
expenditure that would otherwise have to be made on additional supplies of fossil energy
sources. Around 2038 the cumulative cost differential of all renewable energy technologies
since 2000 reaches zero. At this point the “advance payments” for expansion are paid off.
By the middle of the century, the supply of energy from renewables has already saved the
economy some 670 billion EUR compared with the continuation of fossil energy supplies.
Cumulative system-analytical differential costs of electricity, heat and fuel supply 1)
cumulative cost differential [bn. eUr(2009)]
200
150
100
50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
71
136
total figure 2041 – 2050: -590 bn. eUr
-10
photovoltaics (pv)
electricity excl. pv
heat
Fuels
up to 2010 2011 – 2020 2021 – 2030 2031 – 2040
note: compared with a fossil energy system, assuming a marked future increase in fossil fuel prices
1) Basic scenario 2010 for 10-year periods
source: [134]
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