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scenarIo For Increased expansIon 54 Renewable Energy Sources in Figures Long-term scenario 2010 for renewables expansion in Germany The long-term scenario 2010 [134], commissioned by the Federal Environment Ministry, describes consistent quantity frameworks for the long-term expansion of renewable energy and of energy supply in general in Germany, and deduces the resulting structural and economic impacts. The scenarios of the Lead Study 2010 project the development paths for energy supply in a way that ensures achievement of the over-arching objectives of climate protection, efficiency and expansion of renewable energy in Germany. However, the Lead Study 2010 was unable to cover all the aims of the Energy Concept of autumn 2010 1) , which means that it has a provisional character. Other examples of objectives implemented in the scenarios include the development of electric mobility, the expansion of combined heat-and-power generation, and the limitation of biomass use to ecologically acceptable domestic potential. Strategies for achieving climate objectives: Expansion of renewable energies and extensive efficiency measures The development paths of the Lead Study 2010 indicated that final energy consumption would fall by 38 % by 2050 (compared with 2009). This development – in addition to the clear restructuring of electricity supply in favour of renewables – makes a contribution to the marked decrease in primary energy input. Primary energy consumption will fall to 84 % of its 2009 level by 2020 and about 56 % by 2050. In 2050 Germany will be importing only 32 % of the present quantity of fossil energy. The renewables share of 18 % of gross final energy consumption required for 2020 by the EU directive is exceeded in the successful scenarios, with a figure of 21 %. After 2020, renewables as a whole start to become the dominant energy source. In the scenarios, their share of primary energy increases to nearly 55 % by 2050. The restructuring of energy supply is thus very far advanced at that point. More than 85 % of electricity is supplied by renewable energy sources. In the heat sector, more than half the demand is met by renewable energy sources. And even in the mobility sector, the contribution made by renewables (excluding electricity) is already considerable at 42 % of motor fuel requirements. 1) the lead study 2011 is intended to depict all the German government’s objectives, but at the time of going to press it was still in preparation.
Structural challenges: Expansion of electricity, heat and gas networks In order to implement the expansion of renewable energy, it will be necessary to invest in distribution and transport networks, energy storage facilities and flexible gas-fired power plants to meet residual load requirements. Moreover, the guiding principle of largely renewable energy supplies for all sectors consists in intelligent interlinking of power, gas and heating networks. For the electricity grids, high-voltage direct current transmission (HVDC) is an interesting option for long-distance transport of renewable electricity. To some extent the fluctuating supply of electricity from wind and solar sources can also be offset by generation and load management. Development of electricity generation from renewable energies in basic scenario 2010 A renewables-based electricity generation [tWh/a] 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 source: [134] eU grid interconnection Geothermal energy photovoltaics Biomass/biogenic fraction of waste Wind energy at sea (offshore) Wind energy on land hydropower 16 % 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 scenarIo For Increased expansIon 40 % 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Expansion of local heating networks makes it possible to exploit the great potential of combined heat-and-power generation (co-generation), especially using biomass. Further network expansion reduces, but cannot completely solve, the problem of storing electricity from renewable sources. In addition to short-term storage, large-capacity long-term storage is needed to smooth out fluctuations in largely renewables-based electricity generation. Chemical storage of renewable electricity is particularly well suited to this task. The energy sources hydrogen and methane are capable of overcoming the limits set by the fluctuating supply of renewable electricity and ensuring reliable energy supplies at all times with a high percentage of renewable electricity. Renewable electricity, the future “primary energy”, can be stored for weeks and months by linking power and gas grids and made available for motor fuels and high-temperature heating. Renewable Energy Sources in Figures 66 % 2027 2028 2029 2030 55
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Renewable Energy Sources in Figures
Page 3 and 4: ContEntS Foreword 5 pArt i: GErmAnY
Page 5 and 6: ForEWorD Dear Readers, The consiste
Page 7 and 8: WorKinG GroUp on rEnEWABLE EnErGiES
Page 9 and 10: Expansion of power grids In future
Page 11 and 12: Renewable energy share increases de
Page 13 and 14: Renewable energy shares of energy s
Page 15 and 16: Structure of renewables-based energ
Page 17 and 18: Development of electricity generati
Page 19 and 20: Shares of total renewables-based in
Page 21 and 22: Development of heat supply from ren
Page 23 and 24: Development of renewables-based fue
Page 25 and 26: In the case of electricity and heat
Page 27 and 28: Emission balance of renewables-base
Page 29 and 30: Emission balance for renewables-bas
Page 31 and 32: Emission balance for renewable-base
Page 33 and 34: The tables show details of the savi
Page 35 and 36: Trends in investments in renewable
Page 37 and 38: Initial and further training in the
Page 39 and 40: In retrospect, important assumption
Page 41 and 42: [tWh] electricity feed-in/eeg Struc
Page 43 and 44: ards of the Energy Saving Ordinance
Page 45 and 46: Assistance funding and resulting in
Page 47 and 48: Environmental damage from emission
Page 49 and 50: Some of the costs and benefits of r
Page 51 and 52: Promotion of research and developme
Page 53: potentIal capacItIes Long-term sust
Page 57 and 58: PART II: RENEWABLE ENERGIES IN THE
Page 59 and 60: The National Renewable Energy Actio
Page 61 and 62: Structure of total renewable energy
Page 63 and 64: Structure of final energy consumpti
Page 65 and 66: A competitive, sustainable and secu
Page 67 and 68: Development of the share of renewab
Page 69 and 70: Renewables-based electricity supply
Page 71 and 72: Wind energy use in the EU Installed
Page 73 and 74: At the end of 2010, total wind ener
Page 75 and 76: equivalent to an additional collect
Page 77 and 78: In 2009 Observ’ER [101] puts the
Page 79 and 80: Jobs in the renewable energies sect
Page 81 and 82: The examples of wind energy and pho
Page 83 and 84: Development of world population and
Page 85 and 86: Renewables-based energy production
Page 87 and 88: Renewables-based shares of energy d
Page 89 and 90: 2009 Rural areas Persons using trad
Page 91 and 92: In 2008, the renewables share of el
Page 93 and 94: Renewable Energy Policy Network for
Page 95 and 96: Clean Energy Ministerial - CEM - Th
Page 97 and 98: 1. Energy supply from photovoltaic
Page 99 and 100: The emission factors for fossil and
Page 101 and 102: 5. Calculating avoidance factors an
Page 103 and 104: The gross saving in fossil fuels is
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8. Organisation for Economic Cooper
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Conversion factors Terawatt hour: 1
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List of Sources Communications from
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[38] Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- u
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[92] Umweltbundesamt (UBA): Zentral
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[135] Sensfuß, F.: Analysen zum Me
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