Environmental Problems, Their Causes, and Sustainability 1

80Stage 1PreindustrialStage 2TransitionalStage 3IndustrialStage 4PostindustrialHighFigure 10-20Generalized modelof the demographictransition.Birth rate and death rate(number per 1,000 per year)706050403020100Birth rateTotal populationDeath rateLow Increasing Very high Decreasing Low Zero NegativeGrowth rate over timeRelative population sizeLowIn most developing countries today, death rateshave fallen much more than birth rates. In otherwords, these developing countries are still in the transitionalstage, halfway up the economic developmentladder, with high population growth rates.Some economists believe that developing countrieswill make the demographic transition over thenext few decades. But some population analysts fearthat the still-rapid population growth in many developingcountries will outstrip economic growth andoverwhelm local life-support systems. This couldcause many of these countries to be caught in a demographictrap at stage 2, the transition stage. This is nowhappening in a number of developing countries, especiallyin Africa. Indeed, some of the countries in Africabeing ravaged by the HIV/AIDS epidemic are fallingback to stage 1 as their death rates rise.Analysts also point out that some of the conditionsthat allowed developed countries to develop arenot available to many of today’s developing countries.One problem is a shortage of skilled workers to producethe high-tech products necessary to compete intoday’s global economy. Another is a lack of the financialcapital and other resources that allow rapid economicdevelopment.Two other problems hinder economic developmentin many developing countries. One is a sharp risein their debt to developed countries. Much of the incomeof such countries must be used to pay the intereston their debts. This leaves too little money for improvingsocial, health, and environmental conditions.Another problem is that since 1980 developingcountries have been receiving less economic assistancefrom developed countries. Indeed, since themid-1980s, developing countries have paid developedcountries $40–50 billion a year (mostly in debtinterest) more than they have received from thesecountries.How Can Family Planning Help Reduce Birthand Abortion Rates and Save Lives? Planningfor Babies WorksFamily planning has been a major factor in reducingthe number of births and abortions throughout mostof the world.Family planning provides educational and clinicalservices that help couples choose how many childrento have and when to have them. Such programs varyfrom culture to culture, but most provide informationon birth spacing, birth control, and health care forpregnant women and infants.Family planning has helped raise the use of modernforms of contraception by married women in theirreproductive years in developing countries from 10%of in the 1960s to 51% in 2004.Studies also show that family planning has beenresponsible for at least 55% of the drop in TFRs in developingcountries, from 6 in 1960 to 3.1 in 2004. Twoexamples of countries that have sharply reduced theirpopulation growth are Thailand (p. 176) and Iran(Case Study, p. 190). Family planning has also reducedthe number of legal and illegal abortions per year andthe risk of maternal and fetus death from pregnancy.Despite such successes, there is also some badnews. First, according to John Bongaarts of the PopulationCouncil and the United Nations Population Fund,42% of all pregnancies in the developing countries areunplanned and 26% end with abortion. Second, an estimated150 million women in developing countrieswant to limit the number and determine the spacing oftheir children, but they lack access to contraceptiveservices. According to the United Nations, extendingfamily planning services to these women and to thosewho will soon be entering their reproductive yearscould prevent an estimated 5.8 million births a yearand more than 5 million abortions a year!http://biology.brookscole.com/miller14189