Environmental Problems, Their Causes, and Sustainability 1

taxes on carbon emissions or fuel used. Other analystspoint to some problems with emissions trading. One isthat carbon fuels are burned in so many homes, vehicles,factories, and crop fields that it would be difficultto monitor compliance. For that reason, many analyststhink that emissions trading programs should be usedin conjunction with other approaches, such as taxes onfossil fuel use, significant government subsidies for energyefficiency and renewable energy, and removal ofsubsidies for fossil fuels.Another problem is that it is politically difficult forthe world’s countries to agree on what should count ascredits or how any such credits should be dividedamong nations.Can We Afford to Reduce the Threatof Global Warming? Not Acting WillProbably Cost MoreIt will very likely cost us less to help slow andadapt to global warming now than to deal with itsharmful effects later.According to a 2001 study by the UN EnvironmentProgramme, projected global warming will cost theworld economy more than $300 billion annually by 2050($30 billion per year in the United States) unless nationsmake strong efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions.According to a number of economic studies, implementingthe strategies listed in Figure 21-16 wouldboost the global and U.S. economy, provide muchneededjobs (especially in developing countries withlarge numbers of unemployed and underemployedpeople), and cost much less than trying to deal withthe harmful effects of these problems.However, according to some widely publicizedeconomic models developed by economist WilliamNordhaus and others, the projected costs of reducingCO 2 emissions will greatly exceed the projected benefits.Other economists criticize these models as beingunrealistic and too gloomy for two reasons. First, theydo not include the huge cost savings from implementingmany of the strategies listed in Figure 21-17 suchas improving energy efficiency. Second, they underestimatethe ability of the marketplace to act rapidlywhen money is to be made from reducing greenhousegas emissions.21-8 WHAT IS BEING DONE TOREDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS?What Is the Kyoto Protocol? A ControversialInternational AgreementGetting countries to agree on reducing theirgreenhouse gas emissions is difficult.In December 1997, more than 2,200 delegates from 161nations met in Kyoto, Japan, to negotiate a treaty tohelp slow global warming. The resulting Kyoto Protocolwould require 39 developed countries to cut emissionsof CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O to an average of about 5.2% below1990 levels by 2012. The initial steps of the protocolwere directed at these 39 countries because they areresponsible for a majority of the world’s CO 2 emissions(58% in 1999) and thus should take the lead inreducing their emissions.The protocol would not require poorer developingcountries to make cuts in their greenhouse gas emissionsuntil a later version of the treaty. It would also allowgreenhouse gas emissions trading among participatingcountries. By mid-2004, the Kyoto Protocol hadbeen ratified by more than 120 countries.Some climate analysts praise the Kyoto agreementas a small but important step in attempting to slowprojected global warming. But according to computermodels, the 5.2% reduction goal of the Kyoto Protocolwould shave only about 0.06°C (0.1°F) off the 0.7–1.7°C(1–3°F) temperature rise projected by 2060.In 2001, President George W. Bush withdrew U.S.participation from the Kyoto Protocol because he arguedthat it was too expensive and did not requireemissions reductions by developing countries such asChina and India that have large and increasing emissionsof greenhouse gases. This decision set off strongprotests by many scientists, citizens, and leadersthroughout most of the world who pointed out thatstrong leadership is needed by the United Statesbecause it has the highest total and per capita CO 2emissions of any country. According to most climateanalysts, the Kyoto Protocol will accomplish littlewithout the full participation of the United States,Russia, China, and India. However, Scott Barnett, anexpert on environmental treaties, believes that theKyoto Protocol is a badly thought out agreement thatwill not work.xHOW WOULD YOU VOTE? Should the United States participatein the Kyoto Protocol? Cast your vote online at http://biology.brookscole.com/miller14.How Can We Move Beyond the Kyoto ProtocolStalemate? Forging a New StrategyCountries could work together to develop anew international approach to slowing globalwarming.In 2004, Richard B. Stewart and Jonathan B. Wienerproposed that countries work together to develop anew strategy for slowing global warming.They urge the development of a new climatetreaty by the United States; China, India, Russia, andother major emitters among developing countries,http://biology.brookscole.com/miller14481