Environmental Problems, Their Causes, and Sustainability 1

■ How should limited funds be spent to provide thegreatest benefit?■ How will the risk management plan be monitored,enforced, and communicated to the public?Each step in this process involves making valuejudgments and weighing trade-offs to find some reasonablecompromise among often conflicting political,economic, health, and environmental interests.How Well Do We Perceive Risks? Most of UsFlunkMost individuals are poor at evaluating the relativerisks they face, mostly because of misleadinginformation and irrational fears.Most of us are not good at assessing the relative risksfrom the hazards that can affect us. Also, many peopledeny or shrug off the high-risk chances of death (orinjury) from voluntary activities they enjoy, such asmotorcycling (1 death in 50 participants), smoking (1 in300 participants by age 65 for a pack-a-day smoker),hang gliding (1 in 1,250), and driving (1 in 3,300 withouta seatbelt and 1 in 6,070 with a seatbelt). Indeed, themost dangerous thing most people in many countriesdo each day is drive or ride in a car.Yet some of these same people may be terrifiedabout the possibility of being killed by a gun (1 in28,000 in the United States), flu (1 in 130,000), nuclearpower plant accident (1 in 200,000), West Nile virus (1 in1 million), lightning (1 in 3 million), commercial airplanecrash (1 in 9 million), snakebite (1 in 36 million), or sharkattack (1 in 281 million).What Factors Distort Our Perceptions ofRisk? Irrational Fears and Perceptions CanTake OverSeveral factors can give people a distorted sense of risk.Here are four factors that can cause people to see atechnology or a product as being riskier than expertsjudge it to be. First is the degree of control we have. Mostof us have a greater fear of things over which we do nothave personal control. For example, some individualsfeel safer driving their own car for long distancesthrough heavy traffic than traveling the same distanceon a plane. But look at the math. The risk of dying in acar accident while using your seatbelt is 1 in 6,070whereas the risk of dying in a commercial airliner crashis 1 in 9 million. Can you think of another example?Second is fear of the unknown. Most people havegreater fear of a new, unknown product or technologythan they do of an older and more familiar one. Examplesinclude a greater fear of genetically modified foodthan of food produced by traditional plant breedingtechniques, and a greater fear of nuclear power plantsthan of more familiar coal-fired power plants. Can youthink of another example?Third is whether or not we voluntarily take therisk. For example, we might perceive that the risk fromdriving, which is largely voluntary, is less than thatfrom a nuclear power plant, which is mostly imposedon us whether we like it or not. Can you come up withanother example?Fourth is whether a risk is catastrophic, not chronic.We usually have a much greater fear of a wellpublicizeddeath toll from a single catastrophic accidentrather than the same or an even larger death toll spreadout over a longer time. Examples include a severe nuclearpower plant accident, an industrial explosion, oran accidental plane crash, as opposed to coal-burningpower plants, automobiles, and smoking. Can youthink of another example?There is also concern over the unfair distribution ofrisks from the use of a technology or certain chemicals.Citizens are outraged when government officials decideto put a hazardous waste landfill or incinerator inor near their neighborhood. Even when the decision isbased on careful risk analysis, it is usually seen as politics,not science. Residents will not be satisfied by estimatesthat the lifetime risks of cancer death from thefacility are not greater than, say, 1 in 100,000. Instead,they point out that living near the facility means thatthey will have a much higher risk of dying from cancerthan would people living farther away.How Can You Become Better at RiskAnalysis? Analyze, Compare, and EvaluateYour LifestyleTo become better at risk analysis you can carefullyevaluate the barrage of bad news, compare risks,and concentrate on reducing risks over which wehave some control.You can do three things to become better at estimatingrisks. First, carefully evaluate what the media presents.Recognize that the media often give an exaggeratedview of risks to capture our interest and thus sellnewspapers or gain TV viewers.Second, compare risks. Do you risk getting cancerby eating a charcoal-broiled steak once or twice aweek? Yes, because in theory anything can harm you.The question is whether this danger is great enoughfor you to worry about. In evaluating a risk the questionis not, “Is it safe?” but rather, “How risky is it comparedto other risks?”Third, concentrate on the most serious risks toyour life and health over which you have some controlover and stop worrying about smaller risks and thoseover which you have little or no control. When youworry about something, the most important questionto ask is, “Do I have any control over this?”http://biology.brookscole.com/miller14431