Applied numerical modeling of saturated / unsaturated flow and ...
Applied numerical modeling of saturated / unsaturated flow and ...
Applied numerical modeling of saturated / unsaturated flow and ...
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76 C. Beyer et al. / Journal <strong>of</strong> Contaminant Hydrology 87 (2006) 73–95<br />
contaminant concentrations are exactly known. In the second step, the synthetic aquifer is investigated<br />
by st<strong>and</strong>ard monitoring <strong>and</strong> investigation techniques. Although the parameter distribution <strong>of</strong> the<br />
synthetic aquifer is known a priori, only the data “measured” at the observation wells (i.e. hydraulic<br />
heads <strong>and</strong> concentrations) are used <strong>and</strong> interpreted. This is done because in a real site investigation<br />
also only a limited amount <strong>of</strong> measured data would be available, with the amount <strong>of</strong> information<br />
depending on investigation intensity <strong>and</strong> project finances. In the third step, the investigation results are<br />
compared to the “true” values, allowing an evaluation <strong>of</strong> the accuracy <strong>of</strong> the investigation method. In<br />
addition, the use <strong>of</strong> synthetic aquifers <strong>of</strong>fers the possibility to assess the influence <strong>of</strong> different<br />
parameters, such that sources <strong>of</strong> uncertainty <strong>and</strong> error for the investigation method can be considered<br />
individually <strong>and</strong> the sensitivity <strong>of</strong> investigation results on these can be studied. Stochastic simulation<br />
techniques like the Monte-Carlo method are applied to study the propagation <strong>of</strong> parameter variability<br />
<strong>and</strong> uncertainty into the investigation results. Due to the ability to perform extensive <strong>and</strong> detailed<br />
scenario analysis <strong>and</strong> visualization, this approach is well suited to the exploration <strong>of</strong> the uncertainty<br />
involved in hydrogeologic investigation <strong>and</strong> management. The methodology has been applied under<br />
the term “Virtual Aquifer” by Schäfer et al. (2002, 2004b), Bauer <strong>and</strong> Kolditz (2005) <strong>and</strong> Bauer et al.<br />
(2005, 2006).<br />
3. Scenario definition<br />
In this study, the Virtual Aquifer concept is used in a Monte-Carlo framework to assess the<br />
influence <strong>of</strong> spatially heterogeneous hydraulic conductivities on the estimation <strong>of</strong> degradation<br />
rates <strong>and</strong> contaminant plume lengths. Multiple plume realizations <strong>of</strong> contaminants degrading<br />
according to a first order degradation kinetics or Michaelis–Menten kinetics in aquifers with<br />
different degrees <strong>of</strong> heterogeneity are investigated using the center line approach. By comparison<br />
<strong>of</strong> the estimated degradation rates <strong>and</strong> plume lengths with the respective virtual reality data the<br />
investigation methods are tested <strong>and</strong> evaluated. Three different cases are studied in detail:<br />
In case A, four different st<strong>and</strong>ard methods for the determination <strong>of</strong> the first order rate constant λ<br />
are applied to concentration vs. distance data obtained from investigation <strong>of</strong> synthetic contaminant<br />
plumes following first order degradation kinetics. Accordingly, four different rate constants are<br />
estimated for each plume realization. For each λ the length <strong>of</strong> the contaminant plume is estimated<br />
using an analytical transport model. The four methods <strong>and</strong> the corresponding analytical transport<br />
models are introduced in Sections 4.1 <strong>and</strong> 4.2. The main objectives <strong>of</strong> case A are to test the<br />
applicability <strong>and</strong> performance <strong>of</strong> the four different methods <strong>of</strong> determining the first order degradation<br />
rate constant in heterogeneous aquifers <strong>and</strong> to analyse the propagation <strong>of</strong> errors <strong>and</strong><br />
uncertainty from the rate constant to the plume length estimate.<br />
In case B, the same four methods are evaluated with regard to their ability to approximate the<br />
degradation potential <strong>and</strong> estimate the plume length, when the true degradation kinetics deviate<br />
from first order. Here plumes following MM degradation kinetics are investigated in an analogous<br />
manner to case A. The additional error that arises from the first order approximation is studied. The<br />
motivation behind this scenario is that although it is well known that contaminant degradation in<br />
natural aquifers may follow far more complicated processes <strong>and</strong> kinetic laws than a simple first<br />
order model, the latter is routinely used at many field sites. Therefore, this scenario highlights some<br />
<strong>of</strong> the problems that result from this discrepance.<br />
In case C, a regression approach is studied which allows the estimation <strong>of</strong> MM kinetic parameters<br />
from plume center line data. This method is developed in Section 4.1 <strong>and</strong> tested under the influence<br />
<strong>of</strong> aquifer heterogeneity in case C. Here the plumes following MM degradation kinetics are<br />
investigated. As for cases A <strong>and</strong> B the propagation <strong>of</strong> errors <strong>and</strong> uncertainty from the estimated MM