EVALUATION

AN INDEPENDENT EVALUATION OF THE LCNF
Finally, the referendum decision for the UK to leave the European Union (EU) has also
added significant uncertainty into the European carbon market. Any future decision by the
UK to leave the EU ETS is likely to lead to an impact on the current and future carbon
price.
5.6.1 Overall carbon benefit in mtCO2
Figure 31 presents current and future benefits associated with carbon savings. The
orange shaded area on the chart represents the estimated savings assuming the LCNF
projects are only taken forward into BAU on their own network. The green shaded area
represents the additional estimated LCNF project benefits when scaled to GB level (using
the same methodology as in Section 5.3.3).
The current benefit is approximately 3mtCO2; these are the benefits to 31st March 2016.
Future benefits are estimated to range from approximately 107mtCO2 to 215mt CO2 63 .
Figure 31 – Carbon benefits in mtCO2
250
200
Range of Additional Scaled Benefits
Range of Future Benefits
150
Current Benefits
mt CO2
100
50
0
Benefits
Source: GB DNOs and Pöyry / Ricardo analysis
5.6.2 Overall carbon benefit in £/mtCO2
In Figure 32 we present the estimated benefits above assuming a carbon price of
£5.91/tCO2 64 .
63
64
As a guide to the magnitude of these estimated savings, the total carbon dioxide emissions
from energy supply were provisionally estimated to be 136mt CO2 in 2015:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data
/file/511684/20160331_2015_Provisional_Emissions_Statistics.pdf
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/updated-short-term-traded-carbon-values-usedfor-uk-policy-appraisal-2015
PÖYRY MANAGEMENT CONSULTING
October 2016
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