World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY Figure 3.10 Sugar production and consumption, developed countries (thousand tonnes, raw equivalent) 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 1970/1971 1972/1973 1974/1975 1976/1977 1978/1979 1980/1981 1982/1983 1984/1985 1986/1987 Source: USDA, PSD (accessed 16March2012), incl. forecast for 2011/12; data refer to actual sugar, not the sugar equivalent of sugar cane and beet. As such, they are not directly comparable with the data used in other parts of this study. Figure 3.11 Sugar and sugar crops food consumption (raw sugar equivalent) Total Consumption (Million Tons) 250 200 150 100 50 Prod: Other Countries Consumption (all uses), All Developed Countries Prod: former Soviet Union Prod.: EU27 Prod.: USA Prod: Australia & South Africa 1988/1989 0 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1990/1991 1992/1993 1994/1995 1996/1997 1998/1999 2000/2001 Total Developing Total Developed 2002/2003 Per Capita Developing Per Capita Developed 2004/2005 2006/2007 5 2008/2009 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 2010/2011 Per Capita Consumption (kg) 93
PROOF COPY Net exports from developing countries did not decline because over the same period the decline of their exports to the industrial countries was offset by rising imports into developing countries. Several countries in the Near East/North Africa region and also countries like Indonesia, Nigeria, Malaysia, and the Republic of Korea played a major role in the expansion of world trade as their imports shot up. On the export side, Brazil has come to dominate world exports followed by Thailand, while Cuba turned from the leading world exporter it was up to the early 1990s to a minor one (Figure 3.12). Figure 3.12 Sugar net trade positions, 1970-2007 Million tons (raw sugar equivalent) 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 1970 1972 Developed Brazil Thailand Cuba Other Developing Exporters Developing Importers 1974 1976 1978 1980 Net exporter/importer status of the developing countries as of average 2005/2007. 1982 1984 1986 Beyond the turnaround of the developed countries from importers to exporters and back again and the emergence of Brazil as the major supplier to world markets, the last few years have been characterized by growing interaction between energy and sugar markets: an increasing part of world sugar cane and some sugar beet were used as feedstocks for the production of ethanol, with Brazil being by far the most important producer. Currently over one half of Brazil’s sugar cane production is used for ethanol. Given the country’s resource potential and technological prowess, this has not prevented the country from increasing in parallel sugar production and keep being the premier world exporter (Figure 3.13). Food consumption of sugar in the developing countries is projected to continue to grow to 2050 (Table 2.5 and Figure 3.11). Much of the growth would occur in Asia, as Latin America and the Near East/ North Africa have already attained fairly high levels. Latin America may continue to experience some decline (Table 2.6). Per capita consumption in the developed countries will probably remain nearly constant, compared with declines in part of the historical period during which corn sweeteners were substituting for sugar in the United States of America. This process, very pronounced up to the mid-1980s, has by now run its course. In the 1990s the decline in the average of the developed countries continued as consumption fell in the formerly centrally planned economies of Europe during the reform 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 94
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
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PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
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PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
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PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
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PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
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PROOF COPY by people. In particular
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PROOF COPY production potential. Th
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PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
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PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
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PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
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PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
Page 49 and 50: PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
Page 51 and 52: PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
Page 53 and 54: PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123 and 124: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
Page 133 and 134: PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
Page 135 and 136: PROOF COPY million ha at an average
Page 137 and 138: PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
Page 139 and 140: PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
Page 141 and 142: PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
Page 143 and 144: PROOF COPY under way for some time,
Page 145 and 146: PROOF COPY Livestock production is
Page 147 and 148: Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
Page 149 and 150: Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
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PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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