World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY Figure 2.7 20 countries with undernourishment over 30% in 2005/07, data and projections Kcal/person/day 1 910 Figure 2.8 Sub-Saharan Africa: GDP per capita (PPP 2005$), food per capita and poverty GDP/Cap & Kcal 2 700 2 600 2 500 2 400 2 300 2 200 2 100 2 000 1 900 1 800 1 700 1 600 1 500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 Kcal/person/day Undern. % of Pop.(right Axis) Undern million (right Axis) 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 44 121 1994 1998 2002 2006 176 173 1 942 2 080 2 290 Source: GDP and Poverty: WB, WDI Accessed Oct. 2010; kcal: FAOSTAT, accessed Dec. 2010. 43 2010 2014 34 2018 2022 2026 2030 153 22 10 2034 2038 2042 2046 2 580 180 GDP/Capita - PPP 2005$ Food (Kcal/person/day) Pov. % -RightAxis 2025 53 1729 56 1946 1612 54 1575 58 57 1585 1471 59 58 2006 2039 2082 2092 2135 1506 1514 2147 1560 2211 2241 1715 1784 2260 1859 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2006 2007 2008 55 51 91 2050 1914 200 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 Undern. Million and % of Population Pov. % 41
PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithstanding, achieving significant declines in the numbers undernourished may prove to be a more arduous task than commonly thought. A combination of higher national average food consumption and reduced inequality 26 can have a significant impact on the proportion of the population undernourished. However, when population growth is added, such gains do not necessarily translate into commensurate declines in the absolute numbers. In this context, it is noted that WFS halving target, being set in absolute terms (numbers undernourished), is much more difficult to reach than the MDG1 target which is set in terms of halving the proportion undernourished, not the absolute numbers. Monitoring progress towards the WFS halving target will always show countries with high population growth rates as making less progress than countries with low population growth rates, even when both make the same progress towards the MDG1 target. Finally, an additional factor why progress may be slow is the increase in the share of adults in total population. This raises the average MDERs of the countries and, ceteris paribus, contributes to making the incidence of undernourishment higher that it would otherwise be. In conclusion, in many countries the decline in the numbers undernourished will be slow. Where population growth rates are high the numbers undernourished may increase by 2015. This prospect notwithstanding, the significant improvements implied by the projections should not be underestimated: the part of the developing country population living in countries with relatively low incidence of undernourishment (under 5 percent) would increase from the present 645 million (13 percent of the total of the developing countries) to 3330 million (49 percent) in 2030; and the part living in countries with high incidence (over 20 percent) would fall drastically from 40 percent to 4 percent. The shift of China from the 5-10 percent class to the one of under 5 percent, and of India from the over 20 percent to the 10-20 percent class are instrumental in these prospective developments. More details are given in Figure 2.9 26 Food consumption per capita, being a bounded variable (a rich person can eat/waste so much food and a poor person must consume a minimum amount in order to survive), does not offer as much scope for increase in inequality as income. The indices of inequality of access to food are generally well below those of income. For example, for 100 countries with Gini coefficient data from surveys for both income and food (admittedly of different years and qualities) the simple Gini average of the income is 0.39 and that of food 0.14 (data in http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/food-security-statistics/en/). For these reasons, the increase in national averages of food consumption beyond certain levels is bound to be accompanied by declines in inequality. We take this prospect on board by assuming that countries (with significantly higher projected kcal/person/day) will have lower food inequality in the future. How much lower depends on the progress they make in raising their average kcal/person/day, as follows: Future CV=Present CV times (Present kcal/Future kcal), subject to future CV=> 0.20. 42
Page 1 and 2: WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
Page 3 and 4: Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
Page 5 and 6: Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
Page 7 and 8: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
Page 9 and 10: PROOF COPY producing countries rema
Page 11 and 12: PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
Page 13 and 14: PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
Page 15 and 16: PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
Page 17 and 18: PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
Page 19 and 20: PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
Page 21 and 22: PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
Page 23 and 24: PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
Page 25 and 26: PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
Page 27 and 28: PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
Page 29 and 30: PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
Page 31 and 32: PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
Page 33 and 34: PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
Page 35 and 36: PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
Page 37 and 38: PROOF COPY by people. In particular
Page 39 and 40: PROOF COPY production potential. Th
Page 41 and 42: PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
Page 43 and 44: PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
Page 45 and 46: PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
Page 47: PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
Page 51 and 52: PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
Page 53 and 54: PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
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PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
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PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
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PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
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PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
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PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
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PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
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PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
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PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
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PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
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PROOF COPY products facing finite n
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PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
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PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
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PROOF COPY The developed countries
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PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
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PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
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PROOF COPY million ha at an average
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PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
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PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
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PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
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PROOF COPY under way for some time,
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PROOF COPY Livestock production is
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Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
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Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
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PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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