World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

PROOF COPY
The high dependence of several developing countries on roots and tubers as a major
source of food calories is expected to continue. Six countries of sub-Saharan Africa may still
depend on them for over 30 percent of total food consumption (calories) in 2050. Potato
consumption per capita will continue to grow fairly rapidly. There is scope for the declining
trend in the other roots, tubers and plantains to be reversed now that much of the decline in
China’s per capita food consumption of sweet potatoes has already occurred and in the future
it will not have the depressing effect it had in the past on the average of the developing
countries. Another factor that could raise consumption is the potential for productivity
increases in the root crops (cassava, yams). It will be possible for more countries in sub-
Saharan Africa to replicate the experiences of countries like Nigeria, Ghana, Benin and
Malawi, and increase their food consumption based on rapid production improvements in
these crops (Nweke, 2004; Babaleye, 2005).
World average sugar consumption per capita has been nearly constant over several
decades, but rising in the developing countries and falling in the developed ones (Table 2.5).
Sugar shares some of the characteristics of vegetable oils in that it is an important source of
total calories in the developing countries and it is a major export commodity of several of
them such as Brazil, Thailand, Guatemala, Colombia,– with Brazil dominating by far total
exports. In addition, several developing countries are becoming large and growing net
importers this is the case of Indonesia, Nigeria, Algeria, Pakistan, Iran, the Republic of Korea,
making up for the lack of growth of net imports into the developed countries. The developing
countries’ average consumption is 19 kg/person year, but it is 22 kg if China is excluded from
the calculation. China has only 10 kg, partly because it uses saccharine as a sweetener. About
one quarter of the developing countries consume less than 10 kg/year. The scope for
consumption growth is still considerable and we project that in 2050 only one in ten
developing countries would be in the under 10 kg/year category. China’s contribution to total
growth should be more than in the past since the country could be discouraging the use of
saccharine.
2.4 Concluding remarks
Some brief conclusions may be drawn, as follows:
• Over the longer term significant progress can be made in raising food consumption
levels and reducing the percentage of the population undernourished. However the
progress in reducing the absolute numbers will be a very slow process, mainly because
the countries that have high incidence of undernourishment now have also high
population growth rates. This means that improvements in per capita food consumption
and reduction in the percent of the population undernourished will not be translated into
commensurate reductions in absolute numbers affected. A contributing factor will be the
growing share of adults in the population that will raise the average minimum food
requirements.
• The number of undernourished in developing countries stood at 810 million in 1990/92
(the 3-year average used as the basis for defining the World Food Summit target of
halving the absolute numbers by 2015). This number, far from declining, had actually
increased a little by 2005/07, i.e. before the food price surges of 2008. Provisional
estimates suggest that it increased further after 2007 (FAO, 2010: Figure 1). It is not
likely to be halved by 2015 as per target. We may have to wait until after 2040 for the
halving target to be attained. However, if the target is redefined (as per MDG1) as
halving the proportion of the population undernourished by 2015, then it could be
attained shortly after 2015 (Figure 1.4 and Table 2.2).
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