World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY Table 3.2 Cereal balances, world and major country groups World Per capita (kg) Demand Total (million tonnes) Food All uses Food All uses Production Net Trade SSR a % Growth rates percent p.a. Period Demand Production Population 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1969/1971 144 304 530 1 117 1 118 -3 100 1961-2007 2.0 1.9 1.7 1979/1981 153 325 678 1 438 1 442 -4 100 1971-2007 1.6 1.5 1.6 1989/1991 161 321 848 1 695 1 732 6 102 1981-2007 1.3 1.2 1.5 2005/2007 158 314 1 035 2 060 2 068 1 100 1991-2007 1.3 1.2 1.3 2030 160 329 1 324 2 719 2 720 1 100 2005/2007 -2030 2050 160 330 1 454 3 008 3 009 1 100 2005/2007 -2050 Developing countries 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 1969/1971 140 193 363 501 483 -25 96.4 1961-2007 2.9 2.7 2.1 1979/1981 152 219 496 713 649 -73 91.1 1971-2007 2.6 2.4 1.9 1989/1991 160 229 644 919 868 -86 94.5 1981-2007 2.1 2.0 1.8 2005/2007 155 242 809 1 262 1 164 -116 92.3 1991-2007 1.8 1.6 1.6 2030 159 254 1 085 1 740 1 572 -168 90.4 2005/2007 -2030 2050 158 262 1 215 2 008 1 812 -196 90.2 2005/2007 -2050 Developed countries 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 1969/1971 155 571 167 616 635 22 103 1961-2007 1.0 1.2 0.7 1979/1981 156 620 183 725 793 69 109 1971-2007 0.5 0.7 0.6 1989/1991 162 618 204 777 864 93 111 1981-2007 0.2 0.3 0.5 2005/2007 167 591 226 798 904 118 113 1991-2007 0.5 0.6 0.4 2030 166 682 239 979 1 148 169 117 2005/2007 -2030 2050 166 695 239 999 1 197 197 120 2005/2007 -2050 a SSR = Self Sufficiency Rate = production / demand. 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.1 73
PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade balances, wheat, rice, coarse grains, developing countries by region (million tonnes) 1969/ 1971 Developing countries* 1979/ 1981 1989/ 1991 1999/ 2001 2005/ 2007 2030 2050 Wheat -30.5 -55.9 -59.8 -63.4 -67.0 -95 -113 Rice -0.9 -1.7 -0.1 1.6 4.0 5 5 Coarse grains 6.5 -15.8 -26.3 -50.0 -53.4 -78 -88 All cereals Sub-Saharan Africa -25.0 -73.4 -86.2 -111.7 -116.4 -168 -196 Wheat -6.6 -9.4 -4.5 -8.7 -12.7 -22 -33 Rice -0.6 -2.3 -2.8 -4.7 -6.9 -12 -15 Coarse grains -0.3 -1.8 -0.9 -2.3 -3.7 -7 -8 All cereals -7.5 -13.6 -8.2 -15.7 -23.4 -42 -56 Near East/North Africa Wheat -6.4 -17.1 -23.2 -27.0 -22.1 -37 -41 Rice 0.2 -1.3 -2.0 -3.4 -3.3 -6 -7 Coarse grains -0.5 -5.9 -9.5 -21.9 -27.2 -48 -66 All cereals Latin America -6.6 -24.3 -34.6 -52.2 -52.6 -91 -114 Wheat -3.9 -7.1 -3.6 -7.4 -7.0 -4 -1 Rice 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -1.2 -0 1 Coarse grains 7.4 -0.6 -6.9 -9.8 -8.0 9 26 All cereals South Asia 3.5 -8.2 -11.4 -18.2 -16.3 5 25 Wheat -4.4 -3.1 -3.9 -3.3 -5.8 -5 -6 Rice -0.9 1.3 0.8 2.8 7.4 5 6 Coarse grains -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 1.2 -1 -0 All cereals East Asia -5.5 -1.7 -3.2 -0.9 2.7 -0 0 Wheat -8.8 -18.3 -23.1 -14.9 -17.3 -23 -28 Rice 0.5 1.5 5.4 9.1 9.4 19 22 Coarse grains 0.2 -7.2 -8.5 -14.7 -14.5 -29 -35 All cereals -8.1 -23.9 -26.2 -20.5 -22.4 -33 -41 * Includes net imports of other small developing countries with FBS data, not included in the regional totals. 74
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
Page 29 and 30: PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
Page 31 and 32: PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
Page 33 and 34: PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
Page 35 and 36: PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
Page 37 and 38: PROOF COPY by people. In particular
Page 39 and 40: PROOF COPY production potential. Th
Page 41 and 42: PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
Page 43 and 44: PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
Page 45 and 46: PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
Page 47 and 48: PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
Page 49 and 50: PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
Page 51 and 52: PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
Page 53 and 54: PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123 and 124: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
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PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
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PROOF COPY million ha at an average
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PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
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PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
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PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
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PROOF COPY under way for some time,
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PROOF COPY Livestock production is
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Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
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Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
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PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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