World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY Godfray H. Charles J., John R. Beddington, Ian R. Crute, Lawrence Haddad, David Lawrence, James F. Muir, Jules Pretty, Sherman Robinson, Sandy M. Thomas and Camilla Toulmin (2010), “Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People”, Science 327, 812. Goldman Sachs (2007), Bricks and Beyond http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/book/BRIC-Full.pdf. Gustavsson, J., Cederberg, Ch., Sonesson, U., van Otterdijk, R. and A. Meybeck (2011), Global Food Losses and Food Waste: Extent, Causes and Prevention, FAO, Rome. Hawksworth, J. (2006), The World in 2050, Implications of Global Growth for Carbon Emissions and Climate Change Policy, PricewaterhouseCoopers. Hazell, P. and S. Wood (2008), “Drivers of change in global agriculture”, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B (2008) 363, 495-515. Henao, J. and C. Baanante (1999), “Nutrient depletion in the agricultural soils of Africa”, Vision 2020 Brief No. 62. Washington, DC, IFPRI. Henry, G., Westby A. & Collinson, C. (1998), Global Cassava End-Uses and Markets: Current Situation and Recommendations for Further study. Report to FAO by the European group on root, tuber and plantains coordinated by Dr Guy Henry, CIRAD. Hoogeveen, J. (2012), “Irrigated agriculture towards 2050”, (mimeo; to be submitted for publication), FAO, Rome. Hopper, G. (1999), “Changing Food Production and Quality of Diet in India, 1947-98”, Population and Development Review, 25(3): 443-447. Indian Council of Agricultural Research (2011), Vision 2030, New Delhi, www.icar.org.in. IPCC (2007a), General Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment-Version 2 http://www.ipcc-data.org/guidelines/TGICA_guidance_sdciaa_v2_final.pdf. IPCC (2007b), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds). Cambridge University Press, UK and New York (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report _wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm). Jaggard, K., Qi A. and E. Ober (2010), “Possible changes to arable crop yields by 2050”, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B (2010) 365, 2835-2851. Jansson, C., Westerbergh, A., Jiaming Zhang, Xinwen Hud and Chuanxin Sun (2009), “Cassava, a potential biofuel crop in (the) People’s Republic of China”, Applied Energy, 86 (2009) S95–S99. Keyzer, M., M. Merbis and F. Pavel (2001), Can We Feed the Animals? Origins and Implications of Rising Meat Demand, Center for World Food Studies, Amsterdam. Kumar, P., Mruthyunjaya and M. N. Dey,. 2007, “Long-term Changes in Indian Food Basket and Nutrition”, Economic and Political Weekly, September 1. Lambin, E. and P. Meyfroidt (2011), “Global land use change, economic globalization and the looming land scarcity”, PNAS, Vol. 108, no. 9, 3465-3472. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/02/04/1100480108.full.pdf+html Landes, M., Persaud, S. and J. Dyck (2004), India’s Poultry Sector: Development and Prospects, USDA (Report WRS-04-03). Licker, R., M. Johnston, J. Foley, C. Barford, C. Kucharik. C. Monfreda and N. Ramankutty (2010), “Mind the gap: how do climate and agricultural management explain the ‘yield gap’ of croplands around the world?”, Global Ecology and Biogeography (2010). 149
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
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PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
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PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
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PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
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PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
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PROOF COPY by people. In particular
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PROOF COPY production potential. Th
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PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
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PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
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PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
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PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
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PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
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PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
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PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
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PROOF COPY The other major commodit
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PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
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PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
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PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
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PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
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PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
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PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
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PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
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PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
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PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
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PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
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PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
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PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
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PROOF COPY countries in per capita
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PROOF COPY associated with such lar
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
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PROOF COPY The production of biodie
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PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
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3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
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PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
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PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
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Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123 and 124: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
Page 133 and 134: PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
Page 135 and 136: PROOF COPY million ha at an average
Page 137 and 138: PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
Page 139 and 140: PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
Page 141 and 142: PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
Page 143 and 144: PROOF COPY under way for some time,
Page 145 and 146: PROOF COPY Livestock production is
Page 147 and 148: Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
Page 149 and 150: Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
Page 151 and 152: PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
Page 153 and 154: PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
Page 155: PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
Page 159 and 160: PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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