World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY • The next step is to generate the food demand of the different commodities that go with this projected level of kcal. This is done as follows for main commodity groups: • Direct food consumption of cereals is assumed to be lower in 2050 than in the base year: in 2050 they would provide 48 percent of total kcal, down from the 60 percent at present. • Meat increases considerably to 9 kg in 2030 and to 18 kg in 2050, of which 12.5 kg poultry meat. This is well below the levels consumed by other countries which attained the per capita HHCE India is projected to attain in 2050. In brief, the vegetarian tradition is largely preserved while recognizing that the rise in incomes, the emergence of sizeable middle class and the accompanying change in food habits will have an impact on the average diet composition. Such prospect tallies with ICAR’s Vision 2030 which projects per capita meat consumption to increase from 4.3 kg in 2000 to 10.1 kg in 2030 (Indian Council of Agricultural Research, 2011:4). • Food use of dairy products in milk equivalent to increase 63 percent from 2005/07 to 2050. ICAR projects total demand for milk – probably for all uses – to increase from 76 million tonnes in 2000 to 182 million tonnes in 2030 or 54 percent in per capita terms. • Sugar, vegetable oils, fruit and vegetables all to increase considerably, but the first two ones to remain within nutritionally acceptable limits Figure A.2.1.5 Cross-country relationship between kcal/person/day and HHCE per capita (PPP2005$) for 62 developing countries Kcal/person/day 2005/07 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Sources: kcal, FAO/FAOSTAT; HHCE, World Bank, WDI. y = 310.25ln(x) + 202.83 R² = 0.4742 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 Household Consumption Expenditure per capita 2005/07 (HHCE) 59
PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows these projections to 2050 for the main commodities or groups. Figure A.2.1.6 India: food demand, base year and 2050 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 151 144 67 110 Cereals Milk & Dairy (milk equiv.) 2005/2007 2050 2005/2007 2050 18.8 29 Sugar (raw equiv.) 8.8 18 18.3 3.1 2301 2825 Vegetable oils Meat Kcal/person/day (right Axis) 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 60
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
Page 15 and 16: PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
Page 17 and 18: PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
Page 19 and 20: PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
Page 21 and 22: PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
Page 23 and 24: PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
Page 25 and 26: PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
Page 27 and 28: PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
Page 29 and 30: PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
Page 31 and 32: PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
Page 33 and 34: PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
Page 35 and 36: PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
Page 37 and 38: PROOF COPY by people. In particular
Page 39 and 40: PROOF COPY production potential. Th
Page 41 and 42: PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
Page 43 and 44: PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
Page 45 and 46: PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
Page 47 and 48: PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
Page 49 and 50: PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
Page 51 and 52: PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
Page 53 and 54: PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
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PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
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PROOF COPY products facing finite n
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PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
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PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
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PROOF COPY The developed countries
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PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
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PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
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PROOF COPY million ha at an average
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PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
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PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
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PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
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PROOF COPY under way for some time,
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PROOF COPY Livestock production is
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Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
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Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
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PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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