World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY Addendum Comparison with the previous AT20XX projections for arable land in developing countries excluding China. 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 FAOSTAT data (April 2011) AT2000 (1988) AT2010 (1995) AT2030 (2003) AT2050 (2009) AT2050 (2012) 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Notes: (i) The AT2000 and AT2010 studies did not include China; (ii) The difference between the FAOSTAT data and the base year data for the projections reflects the adjustments made in the base year data for this study as explained above (Table 4.8). 4.2.4 Expansion of irrigated land The area equipped for irrigation has been continuously expanding (mainly in developing countries and only slowly in developed countries) although more recently this expansion has slowed down (Figure 4.7 and Table 4.10). The projections of irrigation presented below reflect necessarily scattered information on existing irrigation expansion plans in the different countries, potentials for expansion (including water availability) and need to increase crop production. The projections include expansion in both formal and informal irrigation, the latter being important in particular in sub-Saharan Africa. 117
PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped for irrigation (million ha) 350 300 250 200 150 100 world developing countries y = 3.8 x - 7334 R² = 0.99 y = 3.0 x - 5802 R² = 0.99 50 y = 0.79 x - 1511 developed countries R² = 0.92 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 The importance of irrigated agriculture cannot be overstated. At present it accounts with 16 percent of the arable area for 44 percent of total crop production (see section 4.2.1 above). Not surprisingly therefore irrigated arable area has been expanding faster than rainfed area and on a net basis the world expansion of arable area over time seems to come all on account of irrigated area (see SOLAW – FAO, 2011b and Figure 4.8 72 ). On closer inspection however it is noted that this near-constancy of rainfed area at the global level consists of a fairly sharp decline in the developed countries and a compensating increase in the developing countries. The aggregate projection result shows that the area equipped for irrigation could expand by 20 million ha (or 6.6 percent) over the period from 2005/07 to 2050 (Table 4.10), nearly all of it in the developing countries. This means that some 10 percent of the land with current irrigation potential in this group of countries could be brought under irrigation, and that by 2050 some 60 percent of all land with irrigation potential 73 (417 million ha) would be in use. If one takes into account new irrigated areas required to replace those parts of existing irrigated areas lost to degradation, water shortages, etc., the remaining areas in developing countries suitable for irrigation but not yet in use, will be much less. 72 The rainfed area in Figure 4.8 has been derived as the difference between total arable land in use and the area equipped for irrigation. This is not entirely correct as the irrigated area in use as a share of the equipped area is at present some 85 percent. If however one assumes that this share is constant over time, the developments in rainfed and irrigated areas can be compared. 73 Estimates of “land with irrigation potential” are difficult to make and such estimates should only be taken as rough indications. 118
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
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PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
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PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
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PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
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PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
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PROOF COPY by people. In particular
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PROOF COPY production potential. Th
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PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
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PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
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PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
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PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
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PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
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PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
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PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
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PROOF COPY The other major commodit
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PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
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PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
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PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
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PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
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PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
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PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
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PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
Page 133 and 134: PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
Page 135 and 136: PROOF COPY million ha at an average
Page 137 and 138: PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
Page 139 and 140: PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
Page 141 and 142: PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
Page 143 and 144: PROOF COPY under way for some time,
Page 145 and 146: PROOF COPY Livestock production is
Page 147 and 148: Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
Page 149 and 150: Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
Page 151 and 152: PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
Page 153 and 154: PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
Page 155 and 156: PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
Page 157 and 158: PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
Page 159 and 160: PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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