World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY Figure 3.6 Cereals self-sufficiency rates and net imports SSR, percent 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 3.3 Livestock commodities 3.3.1 Past and present mill. Tons Net Imports-All Developing (right Axis) SSR All Developing - left SSR Net Exporters in 2005/07 SSR Net Importers in 2005/07 Livestock, a major factor in the growth of world agriculture. The world food economy is being increasingly driven by the shift of diets and food consumption patterns towards livestock products. Some use the term “livestock revolution” to refer to these trends (Delgado et al., 2001). In developing countries, where almost all world population increases take place, consumption of meat has grown at an average rate of 5.1 percent p.a. since 1970 (Table 3.4), that of milk and dairy products at 3.6 percent p.a. (Table 3.5). However, growth rates have been on the decline: meat was growing at 2.9 percent between 1997 and 2007, down from 6.1 percent in the preceding ten years.. Aggregate agricultural output is being affected by these trends, not only through the growth of livestock production proper, but also through the linkages of livestock production to the crop sector which supplies the feeding stuffs, mainly cereals and oilseed products. On the negative side, and in association with policy distortions or market failures, there are environmental implications associated with the expansion of livestock production. For example, through the expansion of land for livestock development, livestock sector growth has been a prime force in deforestation in some countries such as Brazil, and in overgrazing in other countries. Intensive livestock operations on industrial scale, mostly in the industrial countries but increasingly in the developing ones, are a major source of environmental problems through the production of point-source pollution such as effluents. In parallel, 250 200 150 100 50 million tons 75
PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant sector contributes to greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere through methane emissions and nitrous oxide from the waste of grazing animals 46 . Important exceptions and qualifications. The strength of the livestock sector as the major driving force of global agriculture can be easily exaggerated. Many developing countries and regions, where the need to increase protein consumption is the greatest, are not participating in the process. There are 23 developing countries (out of the 98 analysed individually) having under 10 kg per capita consumption of meat and another 24 with between 10 and 20 kg. Of these 47 countries 17 (including India – but see Chapter 2, Annex 2.1) have currently consumption levels lower than at the beginning of the 1990s. Therefore, the phenomenon of rising meat consumption in the world is less widespread than first impressions from the aggregates would lead one to believe. It is just that per capita consumption has been growing rapidly in a number of large countries, China and Brazil among them, and this has pulled up the average of the developing countries and the world (see Table 2.5 and discussion in Chapter 2). Thus, the growth rate of meat consumption of 4.9 percent p.a. in the developing countries in the last three decades is reduced to 3.3 percent p.a. if China and Brazil are excluded from the developing country totals (Table 3.4). This is not to deny that meat and other livestock products are preferred foods in most countries and that demand grows rapidly when incomes increase, at least in most countries. It is just that there is less of a meat revolution than commonly asserted, mainly because of lack of development and income growth in many countries. In addition, cultural and religious factors have also stood in the way of wider diffusion of consumption of meat in general in some countries (India) or of particular meats (beef in India, pork in the Muslim countries). For milk and dairy products, there has also been a mild ‘China effect’, but only in the last few years as the country’s per capita consumption almost quadrupled in the last ten years, though it remains modest at 26 kg in 2005/07. Rapid growth in per capita consumption will continue for some time. Rapid growth has instead taken place, in poultry. Perhaps the perception of revolutionary change in the meat sector reflects the extraordinary performance of world production and consumption of poultry meat. Production grew at 5.0 percent p.a. since 1970 vs. 2.8 percent for total meat (Table 3.4) and its share in world meat production increased from 15 percent to 32 percent currently. Per capita consumption increased three-fold over the same period. That of pork also increased from 9.7 kg to 15 kg (China’s statistics helping, but hardly at all for the world without China). In contrast, per capita consumption of ruminant meat (from cattle, sheep and goats) actually declined a little. The growth of the poultry meat sector reflected, in addition to the more favourable expansion possibilities of industrial production and the lower feed requirements per kg of meat, also the substitution for other meats in consumption, essentially beef, in the countries with already medium-high levels of total meat consumption, e.g. several major producers and often exporters of beef in Latin America, North America, Oceania and the EU. For other countries, it was part of the more 46 A study puts the problem as follows: “In 1964, half of all beef cows in the United States were on lots of fewer than 50 animals. By 1996, nearly 90 percent of direct cattle feeding was occurring on lots of 1,000 head or more, with some 300 lots averaging 16,000-20,000 head and nearly 100 lots in excess of 30 thousand head. These feedlots represent waste management challenges equal to small cities, and most are regulated as point-source pollution sites under the authority of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)” (Commission for Environmental Cooperation-NAFTA, 1999: 202). See also de Haan et al. (2006) and, for the thesis that environmental impact has been declining if measured per unit of output, though not for the sector as a whole, see Capper et al. (2009). 76
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
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PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
Page 31 and 32: PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
Page 33 and 34: PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
Page 35 and 36: PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
Page 37 and 38: PROOF COPY by people. In particular
Page 39 and 40: PROOF COPY production potential. Th
Page 41 and 42: PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
Page 43 and 44: PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
Page 45 and 46: PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
Page 47 and 48: PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
Page 49 and 50: PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
Page 51 and 52: PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
Page 53 and 54: PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123 and 124: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
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PROOF COPY million ha at an average
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PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
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PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
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PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
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PROOF COPY under way for some time,
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PROOF COPY Livestock production is
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Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
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Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
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PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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