World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY A few countries with high fish consumption (Japan, Norway) have much lower levels and so do some others, mainly reflecting economic conditions, e.g. the Central Asian countries of the former Soviet Union 51 . At the other extreme, there are countries with over 100 kg, e.g., the United States of America, Australia), or high, levels (most EU countries – the EU27 has an average of 80 kg). In principle, the achievement of near-saturation levels of overall food consumption and high meat levels, as well as health concerns, suggest that there is little scope for further increases. Yet the data indicate that such increases do take place even in countries which have passed the 100-kg mark, probably reflecting a mix of over-consumption and growing post-retail waste or feeding of pets. For example, the latest USDA baseline projections to 2021 indicate an increase in per capita meat consumption of 2 percent from the 208.7 pounds of 2010 (retail weight, a small decline in red meat and an increase in poultry – USDA, 2012, Table 29). The latest projections of the EU foresee a 3 percent increase in the per capita meat consumption to 85 kg in 2020, carcass weight– small declines in bovine and small increases in poultry and pork (European Commission, 2011, Table A16). These trends have to be taken into account, even if nutritional and health considerations would suggest otherwise. As shown in Table 2.5, our projection of per capita meat consumption in the developed countries grows 14 percent in the four decades to 2050, but this includes all the countries with relatively still low consumption (countries of the former Soviet Union). These prospects for changes in the per capita consumption of meat, in combination with slower population growth, suggest that the strength of the meat sector as a driving force of the world food economy will be much weaker than in the past. Thus, world aggregate demand for meat is projected to grow at 1.3 percent p.a. in the period to 2050, one half of the growth rate of the comparable historical period (Table 3.4). The reduction is even more drastic for the developing countries. Much of this reduction is due to the projected slower growth of aggregate consumption in China and Brazil. If these two countries are removed from the developing countries aggregate, the reduction in the growth of aggregate demand for meat is much smaller, indeed smaller than the reduction in the growth rate of their population, as their per capita consumption grows even faster than in the past (Table 2.5). In conclusion, the projected slowdown in the world meat economy is based on the following assumptions: (a) relatively modest further increases in per capita consumption in the developed countries combined with near stationary population. In particular, the population of Russian Federation and Japan, the major importers will be lower in 2050 than at present, by 52 million or 19 percent 52 , with the consequence that their aggregate meat consumption may stop increasing in the medium term future, eventually leading to a shrinkage of the import requirements of these two largest meat importers (see below); (b) growth rates in per capita consumption in China and Brazil well below those of the past, (c) persistence of relatively low levels of per capita consumption in India, and (d) persistence of low incomes and poverty in many developing countries. If these assumptions are accepted, the projected slowdown follows inevitably. Naturally, a slower growth rate applied to a large base year world consumption (258 million tonnes in 2005/07, of which 149 million in the developing countries – Table 3.4) will still produce large absolute increases in world production (some 200 million tonnes by 2050, the great bulk of which in the developing countries). These increases will tend to accentuate environmental and other problems 51 The countries of Central Asia are included in the group of developed countries in our classification in order to ensure comparability for the group between historical data and the projections. 52 32 million in the revised UN population projections of 2010 (UN, 2011). 81
PROOF COPY associated with such large livestock sectors (the sector’s production aspects are discussed in Chapter 4). Little decline in the growth of demand for dairy products. Given the still low consumption levels in the developing countries, the potential for growth is there. Few developing countries have per capita consumption exceeding 150 kg (Argentina, Uruguay, some pastoral countries in the Sudano-Sahelian zone of Africa). Among the most populous countries, only Pakistan has such a level. In South Asia, where milk and dairy products are preferred foods, India has only 67 kg and Bangladesh 16 kg. East Asia has only 23 kg. In this latter region, however, food preferences do not favour milk and dairy products, but the potential for growth is still there: with growing urbanization the per capita consumption has been rising fast and should continue to do so (Table 2.5). Overall, therefore, there is considerable scope for further growth in consumption of milk and dairy products. In the projections, demand in the developed countries grows faster than in the past (Table 3.5) because of the cessation of declines and recovery in the formerly centrally planned economies of Europe. Meat trade expansion will likely continue, at least to 2050, but more of the exports may be supplied by the developing exporters: Despite the projected slowdown in meat demand growth, some of the forces that made for the above discussed buoyancy in world meat trade in the recent past are likely to continue to operate. The net trade positions are shown in Figure 3.7. Figure 3.7 Meat: net trade of major importer/.exporter country groups Thousand Tons 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 -5000 -10000 -15000 -20000 -25000 Developed excl. Jap./Russia Major Dev.ing Exporters Other Dev.ing Japan&Russia Major Dev.ing Importers 1992/1994 2005/2007 2030 2050 *Country groups defined in text. Historical data go back only to 1992, because of the unavailability of data for Russia before 1992. Overall, the trend for the developing countries as a whole to become growing net importers of meat from the mid-70s onwards has been reversed in recent years as Brazil’s exports soared. Thus, an ever growing share of the imports of the importing developing 82
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
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PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
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PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
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PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
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PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
Page 37 and 38: PROOF COPY by people. In particular
Page 39 and 40: PROOF COPY production potential. Th
Page 41 and 42: PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
Page 43 and 44: PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
Page 45 and 46: PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
Page 47 and 48: PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
Page 49 and 50: PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
Page 51 and 52: PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
Page 53 and 54: PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123 and 124: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
Page 133 and 134: PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
Page 135 and 136: PROOF COPY million ha at an average
Page 137 and 138: PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
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PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
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PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
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PROOF COPY under way for some time,
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PROOF COPY Livestock production is
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Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
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Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
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PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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