World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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Modest reductions in the numbers undernourished
The relatively high average consumption levels that the developing countries may attain in the
future (Table 2.1) could lead one to expect that numbers undernourished should show
significant declines. However, due to adverse initial conditions and large population growth in
several countries, their per capita consumption will not increase to levels allowing significant
reductions in the numbers undernourished: their reduction will be a very slow process (Table
2.2 and Figure 1.4). Developing countries may have to wait until after 2040 before the
numbers of undernourished are reduced to the target set for 2015 by the WFS, i.e. one half of
the 810 million estimated for the base period of 1990/92.
There are two main reasons why several countries will likely fail to reduce significantly
the numbers undernourished in the medium term. The first reason is the very adverse initial
conditions, i.e. the very low levels of food consumption several countries start with. Secondly,
high population growth keeps the numbers undernourished high even though they decline as a
share of population. For these countries to attain the medium-high per capita food
consumption levels that would be required for them to halve undernourishment in the next 10-
15 years, their aggregate food consumption would need to grow at rates that would exceed
even optimistic assumptions about growth in domestic production and food imports.
The following example illustrates: as noted, 20 developing countries start with
estimated base year (2005/07) undernourishment of over 30 percent. The group’s average per
capita food consumption is 1940 kcal in 2005/07 and the undernourished are 176 million (or
43 percent) out of a total population of 411 million. The food consumption projections (2075
kcal for 2015) imply (according to the method used here) that the proportion of the population
affected will fall to 34 percent by 2015. This is a significant decline. However, the absolute
numbers affected will be in 2015 virtually the same, because of the relatively high growth rate
of the group’s population (2.5 percent p.a. in 2006-2015) which will have increased to 513
million by 2015. The undernourished may still be some 150 million by 2030 (22 percent) of
the population which is projected to grow to 700 million (2.1 percent p.a. from 2015-30), no
matter that their food per capita may have grown to 2290 kcal. In short, it is a slow process in
the presence of adverse initial conditions and rapid demographic growth.
Based on these projections, the numbers undernourished will not change much by 2015;
they may fall significantly after 2030, when the population growth rate will have fallen to 1.5
percent p.a. There may still be some 10 percent of the population undernourished in 2050
(Figure 2.7). While this will still be a significant problem, but it would represent a real break
from the past history of stagnant food/capita and rising numbers undernourished. Overall,
therefore, the projections of food consumption and those of the underlying production and
trade, far from being pessimistic, embody a degree of optimism. There are three main reasons
why this may be so: the trend of declining per capita food consumption seems to have
reversed after the mid 1990s (Figure 2.7); eventually, population growth in this group of
countries will decelerate from the high 2.5 percent p.a. in 2006-2015 to 1.5 percent in 2030-
50; finally, sub-Saharan Africa (where most countries in this category are) has been
experiencing accelerated economic growth and poverty reductions in recent years: the
prospects are that such improvements will continue. A recent paper from the World Bank
projects drastic falls in poverty in the region, from 51.7 percent of the population in 2005 to
2.8 percent in 2050 (van der Mensbrugghe et al., 2011: Table 5.8) 25 . Figure 2.8 graphs the
region’s recent upturn in per capita GDP and declines in the poverty rates.
25 A recent article in the Economist highlights sub-Saharan Africa’s good economic growth record of the current
decade and future prospects. See: “A more hopeful continent: The lion kings? Africa is now one of the world’s
fastest-growing regions”, Economist, 08 January 2011.
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