World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY Figure 3.5 Cereals feed (million tonnes) and livestock production ($billion) Million tons Cereals Feed & $ billion Livestock Prod. 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Feed Developed Feed Developing Livestock Developed Livestock Developing 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 *Volume of production obtained as quantities times constant price of 2004/06 of individual livestock products, same price in all countries. About 36 percent of world consumption of cereals goes to feed, the bulk of it coarse grains. The developed countries account for most of such use of coarse grains, but the developing ones are catching up: they now account for 42 percent of the world total, up from 30 percent ten years ago. They will continue to increase their share in world feed consumption of coarse grains, up to 56 percent by 2050, as their livestock sector grows; that of the developed countries, instead, will not increase much (Figure 3.5). The developing countries have already surpassed the developed countries in meat production and they will do so also for milk in the next decade or so. As a consequence, there is little growth in prospect for feed use in the developed countries, but non-food uses of coarse grains will likely grow as the biofuels sector expands. Our provisional projection for biofuels (Annex 3.1) indicates that some 180 million tonnes of cereals (mostly maize) may be so used in the developed countries by 2020, up from 61 million tonnes in the base year (average 2005/07) and an estimated about 135 million tonnes in 2010. Cereals trade projections Table 3.2 shows the projected net cereals imports of the developing countries and indicated that the self-sufficiency rates, measured as production in percent of domestic use, would fall marginally from 92 percent at present to 90 percent. The developing countries as a group would continue to be growing net importers, but the rate of expansion would be much smaller than in the past. Their net imports almost quintupled since the early 1970s: they may increase 70 percent by 2050. The slowdown in the growth of demand will make it easier for them to meet it from domestic production, which itself will be slowing down. The net import requirements of the net importer developing countries are partly compensated by net exporters. There are nine developing countries with over 1 million tonnes net exports each in 71
PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of them are likely to remain net exporters by 2050 (e.g. China, Turkey), but new ones would become net exporters (Brazil, Cambodia, Myanmar). For the developing countries as a whole, the slowdown in the growth of net imports and the near constancy of the self-sufficiency rate (graphed in Figure 3.6) is the net result of the varying performances of the two groups, net importers and net exporters (see also Figure 1.5). Table 3.3 shows the net trade balances of wheat, rice and coarse grains of the developing countries by region. Wheat will continue to account for about one half of total net imports and rice will continue to be a minor item, since much of the rice trade is between the developing countries (naturally, rice trade between the exporting and importing developing countries will continue to grow, no matter that the net balance of the developing countries will remain nearly constant). The net cereals exports of the developed countries are the mirror image of the deficits of the developing countries, as shown in Table 3.3. The traditional developed exporters will continue to supply the required surplus with the major supplier (the United States of America) loosing share in favour of the new ones (Russian Federation, Other Eastern Europe), while the EU27 may maintain its status as net cereals exporter, but it is unlikely to revert to being the significant net exporter it was in the past. On the import side, Japan will remain the major player followed by Israel. 45 They are in ascending order: Uruguay, Turkey, Paraguay, Viet Nam, Pakistan, India, China, Thailand and Argentina. 72
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
Page 27 and 28: PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
Page 29 and 30: PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
Page 31 and 32: PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
Page 33 and 34: PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
Page 35 and 36: PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
Page 37 and 38: PROOF COPY by people. In particular
Page 39 and 40: PROOF COPY production potential. Th
Page 41 and 42: PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
Page 43 and 44: PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
Page 45 and 46: PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
Page 47 and 48: PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
Page 49 and 50: PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
Page 51 and 52: PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
Page 53 and 54: PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123 and 124: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
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PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
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PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
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PROOF COPY million ha at an average
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PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
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PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
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PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
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PROOF COPY under way for some time,
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PROOF COPY Livestock production is
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Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
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Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
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PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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