World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY general thrust towards rapidly growing consumption of meat, e.g. several countries in the regions East Asia and Near East/North Africa. Brazil is an example of fast growth in all aspects of the meat economy, with significant increases in production, consumption and exports of beef, poultry and pork. Buoyancy of meat trade in recent years. The rapid growth in consumption of several countries was supported by even faster growth in trade. Some drastic changes occurred in the sources of exports and destination of imports. For example, Japan increased per capita meat consumption from 29 kg in 1979/81 to 45 kg in 2005/07, an increase of 2.3 million tonnes. All this increase was met by imports, which grew almost 6-fold over the period, while production remained essentially constant. Another major developed importer is the Russian Federation. On the side of the developing countries, the major importers are Mexico, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia and the Republic of Korea. The major developing exporters include Brazil which has become the largest world exporter by increasing net exports more than 10fold since the early 1990s; followed by Argentina. The major developed exporters are the United States of America, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the EU. Dairy products. The growth of world milk production and consumption 47 has been less buoyant than that of meat. World per capita consumption is currently 83 kg, up from 77 kg 30 years ago. All of the increase in per capita consumption came from the developing countries (from 37 kg to 52 kg), with China playing a major role in the last few years. The developing countries continue to have per capita consumption well below that of the industrial countries (partly reflecting the consumption habits of East Asia, though this is changing rather rapidly, as well as low incomes and poverty in many other countries), but they are gradually reducing the distance, although not all countries/regions are participating in these increases (Table 2.5). Consumption in Asia (both South and East Asia) grew the fastest and accounts for a good part of the gains in the developing countries (Table 3.5). The lack of progress in continuing to raise per capita consumption and reversal of past gains in many countries, particularly in sub- Saharan Africa and the Near East/ North Africa region, is partly associated with the levelling off in the 1980s and subsequent reduction of subsidized exports from the EU. 47 In our data system all dairy products (e.g. cheese, milk powder, etc, but excluding butter which is part of the animal fats in the food balance sheets) are converted into liquid milk equivalent. Perhaps these conversions of data for so many final products are partly responsible for the fact that the world trade shows a large statistical discrepancy for 2005/07 (Table 3.5), with world exports being 91000 thousand tons and imports 85000. 77
PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregate production and demand World Production Consumption 2005/ 2007 2005/ 2005/ 1996- 1971- 1981- 1991- 2007- 2007- 2007 2007 2007 2007 2030 2050 2005/ 2007 2005/ 2005/ 1961- 1971- 1981- 1991- 2007- 2007- 2007 2007 2007 2007 2030 2050 ‘000 t Growth rates, % p.a. ‘000 t Growth rates, % p.a. Bovine 63 583 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.2 62 321 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.2 Ovine 12 876 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 12 670 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 Pig meat 99 917 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.2 0.8 99 644 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.2 0.8 Poultry meat 81 994 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.4 2.1 1.8 81 545 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.4 2.1 1.8 Total meat 258 370 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.4 1.5 1.3 256 179 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 1.6 1.3 Developing countries Bovine 34 122 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.0 2.0 1.8 31 975 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.2 1.9 Ovine 9 462 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.4 1.9 1.7 9 695 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.3 2.0 1.8 Pig meat 60 483 5.7 5.6 5.0 3.7 1.5 1.1 60 584 5.6 5.6 5.0 3.7 1.6 1.1 -excl. China 15 504 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.5 2.0 1.7 16 053 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 2.1 1.8 Poultry meat 44 880 7.4 7.6 7.6 6.4 2.8 2.4 44 543 7.3 7.4 7.2 6.2 2.9 2.4 Total meat 148 946 4.8 5.1 5.0 4.2 2.1 1.7 146 797 4.9 5.1 4.9 4.1 2.2 1.8 -excl. China 80 660 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.7 2.3 2.1 78 958 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.4 2.5 2.2 -excl.China and Brazil 59 957 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.4 64 357 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.3 2.7 2.4 Total meat by region Sub-Saharan Africa 6 802 2.5 2.4 2.5 3.0 2.9 2.9 7 334 2.8 2.8 2.7 3.4 3.2 3.0 Near East/ North Africa 8 918 4.5 4.7 4.3 3.9 2.4 2.2 10 292 4.3 4.1 3.1 3.7 2.7 2.3 Lat. Amer. and 40 585 Carib. 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.5 1.7 1.3 34 557 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.6 1.7 1.3 -excl. Brazil 19 882 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.1 1.9 1.6 19 955 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 2.0 1.6 South Asia 7 180 2.8 2.8 2.3 1.6 4.4 4.0 6 685 2.6 2.6 2.1 1.2 4.5 4.2 East Asia 85 121 6.5 6.6 6.3 4.5 1.9 1.4 86 806 6.5 6.6 6.4 4.7 1.9 1.4 -excl. China 16 834 4.7 4.7 4.3 3.2 2.3 2.1 18 967 4.8 4.9 4.6 3.7 2.4 2.0 Developed countries 109 424 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 109 382 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 Memo items : cereals feed use vs. livestock production 2005/ 1961- 1971 1981- 1991- 2005/ 2005/ 2007 2007 -2007 2007 2007 2007- 2007- 2030 2050 World livestock production 1 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.4 1.2 - cereals feed (million tonnes) 742 1.8 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 Developing countries livest. production) 1 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.1 2.0 1.7 - cereals feed (million tonnes) 292 4.2 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.0 1.6 Developed countries livest. production) 1 1. 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 -cereals feed (million tonnes) 450 1.0 0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 1 Growth rates of aggregate production derived by valuing all products (meat, milk, eggs) at 2004/06 international prices (see Box 3.1). 78
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
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PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
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PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
Page 33 and 34: PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
Page 35 and 36: PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
Page 37 and 38: PROOF COPY by people. In particular
Page 39 and 40: PROOF COPY production potential. Th
Page 41 and 42: PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
Page 43 and 44: PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
Page 45 and 46: PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
Page 47 and 48: PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
Page 49 and 50: PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
Page 51 and 52: PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
Page 53 and 54: PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123 and 124: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
Page 133 and 134: PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
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PROOF COPY million ha at an average
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PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
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PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
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PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
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PROOF COPY under way for some time,
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PROOF COPY Livestock production is
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Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
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Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
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PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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