World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY resources that could profit from the growth of demand for their exports, e.g. Brazil. On average at the global level, 4 million hectares of arable land were added annually over the period 1961 to 2007 (Figure 4.4). The data show that expansion of arable land continued to be an important source of agricultural growth in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and East Asia (Table 4.8). This includes countries with ample land resources with potential for crops facing fast demand growth, particularly for exports and for non-food uses, e.g. soybeans in South America and the oil palm in Southeast Asia. Indeed, oil crops have been responsible for a good part of the increases in total cultivated land in the developing countries and the world as a whole, albeit often at the expense of forest land. Figure 4.4 Arable land and land under permanent crops: past developments 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 World Developing countries Developed countries y = 4.0 x + 1373 R2 = 0.95 y = 5.2 x + 679 R2 = 0.99 y = -1.2 x + 694 R2 = 0.63 0 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 The projected expansion of arable land in crop production shown below in Tables 4.8, 4.9 and 4.10, has been derived for rainfed and irrigated land separately. Starting with the production projections for each crop, the land and yield projections were derived drawing on expert judgement and taking into account: (a) base year (2005/07) data on total harvested land and yield by crop; (b) data or often estimates for harvested land and yield by crop for rainfed and irrigated land; (c) data on total arable rainfed and irrigated land and their expected increases over time; (d) likely increases in yield by crop and land class; (e) plausible increases in cropping intensities, and (g) the (net) land balances for rainfed and irrigated agriculture 70 . Base year data for total arable land were for several developing countries adjusted 71 to – among other things – arrive at cropping intensities that seemed more meaningful. This is reflected in column ‘2005/07 adjusted’ in Table 4.8. The overall result for developing countries is a projected net increase in the arable area of some 107 million ha (from 968 in the base year to 1075 in 2050), an increase of 11 percent (see Table 4.8). Not surprisingly, the bulk of this projected expansion is expected to take 70 See Box 1 in Bruinsma (2011) for an explanation of the approach followed. 71 Also, data on total arable land and harvested land by crop for China are often unreliable and have been adjusted based on additional information. 113
PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Africa (51 million) and Latin America (49 million), with almost no land expansion in South Asia, and a constant area in Near East/North Africa and East Asia. Table 4.8 Total arable land in use: data and projections 1961/ 1963 2005/ 2007 Arable land in use 2005/ 2007 adjusted 2030 2050 Annual growth 1961- 2007 1991-2007 million ha percent p.a. 2005/ 2007- 2050 World 1 372 1 548 1 592 1 645 1 661 0.28 0.13 0.10 Developed countries 678 624 624 608 586 -0.17 -0.51 -0.14 Developing countries 693 923 968 1 036 1 075 0.65 0.60 0.24 idem excl. China and India 427 604 668 734 775 0.74 0.70 0.34 Sub-Saharan Africa 133 200 240 266 291 0.83 1.25 0.44 Latin America 105 167 202 235 251 0.98 0.61 0.49 Near East / North Africa 86 97 84 84 84 0.31 -0.17 0.00 South Asia 191 204 206 210 213 0.14 0.06 0.08 East Asia 178 255 236 241 236 0.93 0.87 0.00 The arable area in the world as a whole expanded between 1961/63 and 2005/07 by 176 million ha, the result of two opposite trends: an increase of 230 million ha in the developing countries and a decline of 54 million ha in the developed countries (Table 4.8). The arable land area in the latter group of countries peaked in the mid-1980s (at 684 million ha) and declined ever since. This decline in the arable area has been accelerating over time. The longer-term forces determining such declines are sustained yield growth combined with a continuing slowdown in the growth of demand for their agricultural products. The projections of this study foresee a further slow decline in their arable area to 608 and 586 million ha in 2030 and 2050 respectively (it should be noted that this could change should a sustained growth in the demand for biofuels materialize). The overall results are shown in Figure 4.5. The slowdown in the expansion of arable land (and its eventual decline) is of course a direct consequence of the projected slowdown in the growth of crop production and the assumed continuing (albeit slower than in the past) increase in crop yields (see below). Measured from the base year 2005/07, the net result for the world as a whole would by 2050 be an increase in the arable land area of some 70 million ha, consisting of an increase by almost 110 million ha in the developing countries and a decline by nearly 40 million ha in the developed countries (Table 4.8). It should be emphasized that all the estimates for expansion of arable land presented above are estimates of net expansion of arable area, i.e. they do not take into account the development of additional hectares of arable land needed to compensate for land taken out of production due for example to severe land degradation. Unfortunately there is only anecdotal evidence of the extent of this phenomenon and there are no reliable estimates of the extents of land that need to be replaced annually on a global scale. Bringezu et al. (2010) mention an estimate of 2 to 5 million ha of global arable land lost every year to soil erosion and another estimate of 3 million ha lost annually to severe land degradation, but these estimates should be taken as rough indications only. 114
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
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PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
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PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
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PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
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PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
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PROOF COPY by people. In particular
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PROOF COPY production potential. Th
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PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
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PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
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PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
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PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
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PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
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PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
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PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
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PROOF COPY The other major commodit
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PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
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PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
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PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
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PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
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PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
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Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 123 and 124: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
Page 133 and 134: PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
Page 135 and 136: PROOF COPY million ha at an average
Page 137 and 138: PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
Page 139 and 140: PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
Page 141 and 142: PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
Page 143 and 144: PROOF COPY under way for some time,
Page 145 and 146: PROOF COPY Livestock production is
Page 147 and 148: Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
Page 149 and 150: Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
Page 151 and 152: PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
Page 153 and 154: PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
Page 155 and 156: PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
Page 157 and 158: PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
Page 159 and 160: PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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