World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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This near constancy in the midst of still significant undernutrition is a composite of both
positive and negative factors. On the negative side, there are the experiences of the many
developing countries whose declines in food cereals consumption, while they still have very
low kcal/person/day, are part of the a broader picture of failures in the food security area.
Countries in this class include Zambia, the United Republic of Tanzania, Democratic People’s
Republic of Korea, Yemen and several others. On the positive side, there are the experiences
of those countries whose declines in food cereals are part of a diet diversification away from
staples. Countries in this class include several in the middle and upper middle income
categories, e.g. China, the Republic of Korea, Turkey, Tunisia, the Syrian Arab Republic, etc.
Concerning the future, the downward pressure on the direct food consumption of cereals
per capita from developments in China (and to a smaller extent in the region Near East/North
Africa) on the average of the developing countries will likely continue. This may, however, be
more than compensated by a continuation of the recent upturn in sub-Saharan Africa and
Latin America. Eventually South Asia may also raise its per capita cereals food if India’s near
stagnant and recently declining consumption per capita is halted or reversed in the medium
term future before declining again in the longer term following diet diversification (see Annex
2.1). In the end, the world average and that of the developing countries may be in the future
somewhat above present levels. This likely development will be the net effect of the
contrasting trends of, on the one hand, diet diversification away from the direct consumption
of cereals in those countries attaining medium-high levels of food consumption, and on the
other hand, increases in per capita consumption in those countries remaining at low levels of
food consumption and/or diversifying towards cereals and away from other staples, e.g. roots
and tubers.
The share of cereals in total calories will continue to decline, but very slowly, falling for
the developing countries from 53 percent at present to 49 percent in 2030 and to 47 percent in
2050. The wide inter-country differences in cereals food consumption will continue to persist,
though not as pronounced as at present, for the reasons already mentioned: agro-ecological
factors favouring dependence of diets on roots and tubers, bananas and plantains, in countries
mainly in the humid tropics on the one hand; and prevalence of poverty and depressed levels
of food consumption on the other hand. World average per capita consumption of cereals for
all uses (including food, feed, and other non-food uses, e.g. for seed and the production of
ethanol or starch for industrial uses should instead keep growing after the reversal of the sharp
declines of the 1990s in the feed sector of the formerly centrally planned economies of Europe
(Table 2.5).
Concerning the likely developments in the individual cereals (wheat, rice, coarse grains)
much of the slowdown in per capita food consumption will continue to originate from rice.
This is a well established trend in diets of some major rice-based countries, particularly those
in the East Asia. South Asia is projected to follow this pattern in the medium term. Rice
consumption per capita will however continue rising in the other regions, including the
developed countries. Wheat food consumption per capita may see little growth for the world
as a whole, but it will continue to rise in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Latin America;
while levelling off and eventually declining in the Near East/North Africa, East Asia – mainly
in China – and the developed countries. Such growth in consumption in some of the
developing regions will be accompanied by continued growth in their wheat imports,
particularly in those countries that are non-producers or minor ones for agro-ecological
reasons (see Chapter 3).
Food consumption of coarse grains has stagnated at 35-37 kg/capita as a world average
as well as in the developing countries (30-32 kg). It continues to be important and rising
slowly mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, where it accounts for 69 percent of food consumption of
cereals, with some countries – e.g. Zimbabwe and Zambia – depending overwhelmingly on
maize and others on millet and sorghum, mostly in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and to a smaller
extent in Latin America (43 percent, mostly maize). Developments in barley use for beer
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