World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY moderate rate than in the past, bringing by 2050 the developing countries’ share in world soybean production to over 70 percent, with four countries (Brazil, Argentina, China and India) accounting for 90 percent of total production in developing countries. Table 4.12 Area and yields for major crops in the world Production Harvested area Yield million tonnes million ha tonnes/ha 1961/ 2005/ 2050 1961/ 2005/ 2050 1961/ 2005/ 2050 1963 2007 1963 2007 1963 2007 Wheat 235 614 858 206 222 225 1.1 2.8 3.8 Rice (paddy) 230 644 827 118 158 155 1.9 4.1 5.3 Maize 210 736 1 178 106 155 194 2.0 4.7 6.1 Soybeans 27 217 390 24 94 124 1.1 2.3 3.2 Pulses 44 60 100 69 73 62 0.6 0.8 1.6 Barley 84 137 186 59 56 64 1.4 2.4 2.9 Sorghum 44 60 102 47 45 53 0.9 1.3 1.9 Millet 25 32 60 43 37 42 0.6 0.9 1.4 Seed cotton 30 71 100 32 36 39 0.9 2.0 2.6 Rape seed 4 50 99 6 31 36 0.6 1.6 2.8 Groundnuts 15 36 68 17 24 35 0.9 1.5 2.0 Sunflower 7 29 49 7 23 28 1.0 1.3 1.7 Sugarcane All cereals (rice 428 1 452 2 822 9 21 27 49 68 104 milled) 843 2 069 3 009 654 704 763 1.3 2.9 3.9 All crops 978 1 256 1 380 439 924 1 296 Notes: crops selected and ordered according to (harvested) land use in 2005/07 (excluding fruits and vegetables); Yields for ‘all crops’ are in ICP$ per ha. For cereals, which occupy more than half of the harvested area in the world (56 percent) and in developing countries (52 percent), the slowdown in yield growth would be particularly pronounced: at the world level down from 1.9 percent p.a. in the historical period to 0.7 percent p.a. over the period to 2050 and from 2.3 to 0.8 percent p.a. in the developing countries (Table 4.13). Again this slowdown has been underway for some time. The differences in the sources of growth for the various regions have been discussed before. Suffice it here to note that irrigated land is expected to play a more important role in increasing maize production, almost entirely due to China which accounts for over 40 percent of the developing countries’ maize production and where irrigated land allocated to maize could almost double. Part of the continued, albeit slowing, growth in yields is due to a rising share of irrigated production (with normally much higher cereal yields) in total production. This fact alone would lead to yield increases even if rainfed and irrigated cereal yields would not grow at all. Increasing yields are often credited (see for example Borlaug, 1999) with saving land and thus diminishing pressure on the environment (e.g. less deforestation than otherwise would have taken place). To take cereals as an example, the reasoning is as follows. If the average global cereal yield had not grown since 1961/63 when it was 1242 kg/ha, 1604 million ha would have been needed to grow the 2069 million tonnes of cereals (rice milled) the world produced in 2005/07. This amount was actually obtained on an area of only 704 127
PROOF COPY million ha at an average yield of 2941 kg/ha Therefore, 900 million ha (1604 – 704) have been saved because of yield increases for cereals alone. This conclusion should be qualified however, since if there had been no yield growth, the most probable outcome would have been much lower production because of lower demand due to higher prices of cereals, and somewhat more land under cereals. Furthermore, in many countries the alternative of land expansion instead of yield increases does not exist in practice. Table 4.13 Cereal yields, rainfed and irrigated Yield (tonnes/ha) Annual growth (percent p.a.) 1961/ 1963 2005/ 2007 2050 1961-2007 1987-2007 2005/ 2007-2050 World Wheat total 1.14 2.77 3.82 2.11 1.08 0.74 rainfed 2.41 3.24 0.68 irrigated 3.52 5.02 0.81 Rice (paddy) total 1.94 4.07 5.32 1.80 1.10 0.61 rainfed 2.57 3.60 0.77 irrigated 5.08 6.59 0.59 Maize total 1.99 4.74 6.06 1.98 1.95 0.56 rainfed 4.25 5.65 0.65 irrigated 6.81 7.43 0.20 All cereals (rice milled) total 1.29 2.94 3.94 1.90 1.43 0.67 rainfed 2.55 3.44 0.68 Developing countries irrigated 3.88 5.16 0.65 Wheat total 0.87 2.76 4.01 2.92 1.56 0.85 rainfed 1.73 2.51 0.85 irrigated 3.41 5.01 0.88 Rice (paddy) total 1.83 4.01 5.28 1.91 1.13 0.63 rainfed 2.57 3.60 0.77 irrigated 5.02 6.56 0.61 Maize total 1.16 3.25 4.68 2.47 2.12 0.83 rainfed 2.70 4.02 0.91 irrigated 5.41 6.43 0.39 All cereals (rice milled) total 0.98 2.49 3.60 2.27 1.53 0.84 rainfed 1.78 2.72 0.97 irrigated 3.56 5.01 0.78 Note: Historical data are from FAOSTAT; base-year data for China have been adjusted. Despite the increases in land under cultivation in the land-abundant countries, much of agricultural production growth has been based on the growth of yields, and will increasingly need to do so. What is the potential for a continuation of yield growth? In countries and localities where the potential of existing technology is being exploited fully, subject to the agro-ecological constraints specific to each locality, further growth, or even maintenance, of current yield levels will depend crucially on further progress in agricultural research. In places 128
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
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PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
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PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
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PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
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PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
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PROOF COPY by people. In particular
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PROOF COPY production potential. Th
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PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
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PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
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PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
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PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
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PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
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PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
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PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
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PROOF COPY The other major commodit
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PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
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PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
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PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
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PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
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PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
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PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
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PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
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PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
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PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
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PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123 and 124: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
Page 133: PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
Page 137 and 138: PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
Page 139 and 140: PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
Page 141 and 142: PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
Page 143 and 144: PROOF COPY under way for some time,
Page 145 and 146: PROOF COPY Livestock production is
Page 147 and 148: Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
Page 149 and 150: Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
Page 151 and 152: PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
Page 153 and 154: PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
Page 155 and 156: PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
Page 157 and 158: PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
Page 159 and 160: PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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