World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

PROOF COPY
Table 4.2 Agricultural production growth rates (percent p.a.)
1961- 2007 1987- 2007 1997- 2007
2005/
2007- 2030 2030- 2050
World 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.3 0.8
Developing countries 3.3 3.5 3.1 1.6 0.9
idem, excl. China and India 2.9 3.0 3.3 1.8 1.2
Sub-Saharan Africa 2.6 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.1
Latin America and the Caribbean 2.9 3.3 3.8 1.7 0.8
Near East / North Africa 3.0 2.7 2.6 1.6 1.2
South Asia 2.9 2.7 2.4 1.9 1.3
East Asia 4.0 4.2 3.3 1.3 0.5
Developed countries 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3
44 countries with over 2700
kcal/person/day in 2005/07* 2.6 2.9 2.0 1.1 0.5
* accounting for 57 percent of the world population in 2005/2007.
Figure 4.1 shows the increase of agricultural production (over its base year level) by
region. It brings out that although growth in production would slowdown, it still means that
by 2050 agricultural production could more than double in South Asia and nearly triple in
sub-Saharan Africa.
Figure 4.1 Agricultural production by region
300
250
200
150
100
50
World Developing countries sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America Near East/ North Africa South Asia
East Asia Developed countries
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Index of total agricultural production (2005/07 = 100)
The annual growth of world agricultural production is projected to fall from 2.2 percent
over the last decade to 1.3 percent over the period to 2030 and 0.8 percent from 2030 to 2050
(Table 4.2). However, one should not lose sight of the fact that the incremental quantities
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