World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY consumption per capita and improved food security, but are necessary just to sustain minimum levels of food consumption. Figure 3. 1 Net agricultural trade of developing countries, 1961-2007 (billion 2004-06 ICP$) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 1960 1962 1964 1966 All Developing Brazil Developing excl. Brazil 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 *Commodities covered in this study valued as indicated in Box 3.1. 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 65
PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultural trade of developing countries, data and projections (billion 2004-06 ICP$) 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 * Commodities covered in this study valued as indicated in Box 3.1. Table 3.1 Growth rates of demand and production, percent p.a. 1970- 2007 1980- 2007 1990- 2007 2005/ 2007- 2030 2030- 2050 2005/ 2007- 2050 Demand (all commodities - all uses), total World 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.4 0.8 1.1 Developing countries 3.6 3.6 3.5 1.7 0.9 1.3 idem, excl. China 3.1 2.9 2.8 1.9 1.2 1.6 Sub-Saharan Africa 3.1 3.4 3.5 2.6 2.1 2.4 Near East/North Africa 3.3 2.8 2.8 1.7 1.1 1.5 Latin America and the Caribbean 2.8 2.6 2.6 1.7 0.6 1.2 South Asia 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.0 1.3 1.7 East Asia 4.3 4.4 4.4 1.4 0.5 1.0 idem, excl. China 3.2 2.9 2.7 1.6 0.9 1.3 Developed countries 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.5 Demand (all commodities - all uses), per capita World 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 Developing countries 1.6 1.7 1.9 0.5 0.4 0.5 idem, excl. China 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.4 Near East/North Africa 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.3 Latin America and the Caribbean 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.6 South Asia 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 East Asia 2.8 3.1 3.3 0.8 0.5 0.6 idem, excl. China 3.2 2.9 2.7 1.6 0.9 1.3 66
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
Page 21 and 22: PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
Page 23 and 24: PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
Page 25 and 26: PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
Page 27 and 28: PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
Page 29 and 30: PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
Page 31 and 32: PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
Page 33 and 34: PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
Page 35 and 36: PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
Page 37 and 38: PROOF COPY by people. In particular
Page 39 and 40: PROOF COPY production potential. Th
Page 41 and 42: PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
Page 43 and 44: PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
Page 45 and 46: PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
Page 47 and 48: PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
Page 49 and 50: PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
Page 51 and 52: PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
Page 53 and 54: PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
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PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
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PROOF COPY The developed countries
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PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
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PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
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PROOF COPY million ha at an average
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PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
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PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
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PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
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PROOF COPY under way for some time,
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PROOF COPY Livestock production is
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Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
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Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
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PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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