World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY Figure 4.8 The historical evolution of rainfed and irrigated arable area 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Evolution of total world rainfed and irrigated area (million ha) total arable land rainfed area in use area equipped for irrigation 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 The expansion of irrigation would be strongest (in absolute terms) in the more landscarce regions hard-pressed to raise crop production through more intensive cultivation practices, such as East Asia (+8 million ha), South Asia (+3 million ha), and the Near East/North Africa (+3 million ha), although in the latter region further expansion will become increasingly difficult as water scarcity increases and competition for water from households and industry will continue to reduce the share available to agriculture. China and India alone account for more than half (54 percent) of the irrigated area in developing countries. Although the overall arable area in China is expected to decrease further, the irrigated area would continue to expand through conversion of rainfed land. Table 4.10 Area equipped for irrigation 1961/ 1963 2005/ 2007 0 irrigated developed 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050 1961 -2007 1997 -2007 2005/ 2007 -2050 Million ha Annual growth (% p.a.) World 142 302 314 322 1.8 1.3 0.1 Developed countries 38 68 69 69 1.5 0.1 0.0 Developing countries 103 235 246 253 1.9 1.7 0.2 idem excl. China and India 47 108 114 119 2.0 1.4 0.2 Sub-Saharan Africa 3 6 7 7 1.9 0.7 0.5 Latin America 8 20 22 23 2.1 1.0 0.3 Near East / North Africa 15 31 32 34 1.9 1.2 0.2 South Asia 37 90 90 93 2.1 1.6 0.1 East Asia 40 88 95 96 1.6 2.2 0.2 1000 800 600 400 200 Evolution of rainfed and irrigated area in developing and developed countries (million ha) total developing rainfed developing total developed rainfed developed irrigated developing 119
PROOF COPY The developed countries account for over a fifth of the world’s irrigated area, 68 out of 302 million ha (Table 4.10). Annual growth of their irrigated area reached a peak of 3.0 percent in the 1970s, dropping to 1.1 percent in the 1980s and to only 0.1 percent over the last decade for which data are available (1997-2007). For the developed countries as a group only a very marginal expansion of the irrigated area (supplemented with improvements on existing areas) is foreseen over the projection period so that the world irrigation scene will remain dominated by events in the developing countries. In terms of annual growth, the projected net increase in land equipped for irrigation would represent a sharp slowdown as compared with the historical growth. The projected slowdown which applies to most countries and regions, reflects the projected lower growth rate of crop production combined with the increasing scarcity of suitable areas for irrigation and of water resources in some countries, as well as the rising costs of irrigation investment. Most of the expansion of irrigated land is achieved by converting land in use in rainfed agriculture into irrigated land. Part of irrigation, however, takes place on arid and hyper-arid (desert) land which is not suitable for rainfed agriculture. It is estimated that of the 235 million ha irrigated at present in developing countries, some 39 million ha are on arid and hyper-arid land which could slightly increase over the period to 2050. In some regions and countries, irrigated arid and hyper-arid land forms an important part of the total irrigated land presently in use: 17 out of 31 million ha in the Near East/North Africa, and 16 out of 90 million ha in South Asia. For the purpose of this study a distinction was made between the area equipped for irrigation and the irrigated area actually in use. Areas equipped might be temporarily or even permanently out of use for various reasons, including for maintenance, or because of degradation of irrigation infrastructure or since the area does not need to be irrigated in a particular year (the latter occurs often in developed countries with temperate climates where sprinkler irrigation is practiced only in dry summers). The percentage of the area equipped actually in use differs from country to country and could range from a low 40 to a high 100 percent, but on average over all countries is at present about 85 percent (expected to increase very slightly to 86 percent in 2050). So out of the 235 million ha equipped for irrigation in the developing countries in 2005/07, some 201 million ha were assumed to be in use increasing to 220 million ha in 2050 (253 million ha equipped; see also Figure 4.9). Although the irrigated area in use in developing countries would rise by 2050 by ‘only’ 10 percent (from 201 to 220 million ha from 2005/07 to 2050), the harvested irrigated area could expand by 34 million ha (or 12 percent) due to a continuing increase in multiple cropping on both existing and newly irrigated areas (from 137 to 141 percent in 2050) and would account for well over a quarter of the total increase in harvested land (Table 4.9). One should bear in mind that the projected expansion of irrigated land by 20 million ha is the increase in net terms. It assumes that losses of existing irrigated land due to, for example, water shortages or degradation because of salinization and water-logging, will be compensated for through rehabilitation or substitution by new areas for those lost. The few existing historical data on such losses are too uncertain and anecdotal to provide a reliable basis for drawing inferences about the future. In investment terms, rehabilitation of existing irrigation schemes will represent the bulk of future expenditure on irrigation: if it is assumed that 2.5 percent of existing irrigation must be rehabilitated or substituted by new irrigation each year, that is, if the average life of irrigation schemes were 40 years, then the total irrigation investment activity over the projection period to 2050 would include some 172 million ha, of which nearly 90 percent would be for rehabilitation or substitution and the balance for net expansion. 120
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
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PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
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PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
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PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
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PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
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PROOF COPY by people. In particular
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PROOF COPY production potential. Th
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PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
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PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
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PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
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PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
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PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
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PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
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PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
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PROOF COPY The other major commodit
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PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
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PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
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PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
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PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
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PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
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PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
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PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123 and 124: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
Page 133 and 134: PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
Page 135 and 136: PROOF COPY million ha at an average
Page 137 and 138: PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
Page 139 and 140: PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
Page 141 and 142: PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
Page 143 and 144: PROOF COPY under way for some time,
Page 145 and 146: PROOF COPY Livestock production is
Page 147 and 148: Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
Page 149 and 150: Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
Page 151 and 152: PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
Page 153 and 154: PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
Page 155 and 156: PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
Page 157 and 158: PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
Page 159 and 160: PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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