World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY Daberkow et al. (2000) state that increased use of fertilizer is becoming even more crucial in view of other factors, such as the impact on soil fertility of more intensive cultivation practices and the shortening of fallow periods. There is empirical evidence that nutrient budgets 83 change over time and that higher yields can be achieved through reduction of nutrient losses within cropping systems. That is, increases in food production can be obtained with a less than proportional increase in fertilizer nutrient use. Frink et al. (1998) showed this situation for maize in North America. Farmers achieve such increased nutrient use efficiency by adopting improved and more precise management practices. Socolow (1998) suggests that management techniques such as precision agriculture offer abundant opportunities to substitute information for fertilizer. It is expected that this trend of increasing efficiency of nutrient use through better nutrient management, by improving the efficiency of nutrient balances and the timing and placement of fertilizers, will continue and accelerate in the future. Projections for fertilizer consumption have been derived applying non-linear (piecemeal linear) relationships between yields and fertilizer application rates (separately for N, P and K fertilizer) for 34 crops grown under rainfed and irrigated conditions. Country-specific data from FAOSTAT for the base year 2005/07 on N, P and K consumption and for harvested land and yield by crop were used to calibrate (scale) the functions (for 105 countries and country groups 84 ) to reproduce the 2005/07 fertilizer consumption in each country (see Bruinsma et al., 1983, for a description of the methodology). The overall result, aggregated over all crops and countries, is that fertilizer consumption could increase from 166 million tonnes in 2005/07 to 263 million tonnes in 2050 (see Figure 4.12 and Table 4.15). This would imply a continuing slowdown in the overall growth of fertilizer consumption (Table 4.15) with particularly slow growth in the developed countries and East Asia. The reasons for this will be explained below 85 . The developing countries account at present for almost 70 percent of world fertilizer consumption and this share could increase further to over three-quarters of world consumption in 2050. China and India alone account for almost two-thirds of the developing countries’ fertilizer consumption but this could decline to about half the consumption in 2050 as other regions will catch up. The decline in world fertilizer consumption in the 1990s (Figure 4.12) was mainly caused by the decline in the transition countries following systemic reforms. Growth in fertilizer use in the industrial countries, especially in Western Europe, is expected to lag significantly behind growth in other regions of the world. The maturing of fertilizer markets during the 1980s in North America and Western Europe, two of the major fertilizer consuming regions of the world, account for much of the projected slowdown in fertilizer consumption growth. In the more recent past, changes in agricultural policies, in particular reductions in support measures, contributed to a slowdown or even decline in fertilizer use in this group of countries. Increasing awareness of and concern about the environmental impacts of fertilizer use are also likely to hold back future growth in fertilizer use. 83 A nutrient budget is defined as the balance of nutrient inputs such as mineral fertilizers, manure, deposition, biological nitrogen fixation and sedimentation, and nutrient outputs (crops harvested, crop residues, leaching, gaseous losses and erosion). 84 See Appendix 1 for a list of the countries and crops included. 85 Earlier fertilizer projections made in 2001-02 (Bruinsma, 2003, pp. 148-151) considerably underestimated developments in world fertilizer consumption, projecting a consumption of 165 million tonnes by 2015, a level which in practice had already been reached by 2005/07. 133
PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer consumption: historical and projected Total consumption million tonnes of nutrient (N, P and K) 1961/ 1963 2005/ 2007 2050 1961- 2007 1997- 2007 percent p.a. 2005/ 2007 -2030 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.2 1 6 4.3 0.4 3.7 3.1 Latin America 1.1 17 45 5.6 5.4 3.2 1.1 Near East / North Africa 0.5 8 12 6.0 2.6 1.1 1.1 South Asia 0.6 27 59 8.2 3.0 2.5 1.0 East Asia 1.9 62 79 7.7 4.0 0.8 0.3 Developing countries 4.3 114 201 7.2 3.8 1.7 0.8 excl. China and India 2.9 42 94 6.0 3.6 2.4 1.1 Developed countries 30.0 51 62 0.5 -0.3 0.6 0.3 World 34.3 166 263 3.0 2.4 1.4 0.7 Per harvested hectare kg/ha percent p.a. 1961/ 1963 2005/ 2007 2050 1961- 2007 1997- 2007 2005/ 2007 -2030 Sub-Saharan Africa 1.9 8 27 2.6 -1.6 3.1 2.6 Latin America 15.1 122 250 4.4 3.0 2.4 0.7 Near East / North Africa 10.3 113 170 5.3 1.9 0.9 0.9 South Asia 3.4 121 268 7.7 2.7 2.5 1.0 East Asia 9.6 210 256 6.9 3.3 0.6 0.3 Developing countries 7.3 127 200 6.3 2.7 1.4 0.6 excl. China and India 9.6 79 144 4.7 1.9 1.9 0.8 Developed countries 75.9 144 166 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.3 World 35.0 132 191 2.5 1.7 1.1 0.5 2030- 2050 2030- 2050 Cereals, in particular wheat, rice and maize, account at present for some 60 percent of global fertilizer use, and are expected to still account for just over half of fertilizer consumption by 2050 (Table 4.16). Fertilizer applications to oilseeds (in particular to soybeans and rapeseed) are expected to grow fastest so that oilseeds by 2050 could account for over a fifth of all fertilizer consumption. The shares of N (57 percent), P (25 percent) and K (18 percent) in total fertilizer consumption are expected to change only marginally over the projection period. Table 4.16 Fertilizer consumption by major crops Share (%) in total Million tonnes of nutrient (NPK) 2005/ 2007 2050 2005/ 2007 2030 2050 Annual growth (% p.a.) 2005/ 2007-2030 2030- 2050 Cereals 60.5 51.7 100 128 136 1.0 0.3 Oilseeds 15.3 22.0 25 43 58 2.2 1.5 Vegetables, citrus and fruits 10.3 10.6 17 24 28 1.5 0.7 Roots and tubers 1.5 1.6 3 4 4 1.5 0.8 Other crops 12.4 14.1 20 32 37 1.9 0.7 134
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
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PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
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PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
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PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
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PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
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PROOF COPY by people. In particular
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PROOF COPY production potential. Th
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PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
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PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
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PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
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PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
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PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
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PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
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PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
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PROOF COPY The other major commodit
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PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
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PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
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PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
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PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
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PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
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PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
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PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
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PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
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PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
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PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
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PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
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PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
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PROOF COPY countries in per capita
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Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
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Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
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Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
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Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
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Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
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Page 137 and 138: PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
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Page 145 and 146: PROOF COPY Livestock production is
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Page 149 and 150: Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
Page 151 and 152: PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
Page 153 and 154: PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
Page 155 and 156: PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
Page 157 and 158: PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
Page 159 and 160: PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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