World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY Figure 4.2 World land area by category (million ha in 2005/07) 4060 4055 Source: FAOSTAT (extraction April 2011) 1530 3374 How much land is there with crop production potential? Arable land and Permanent crops Permanent meadows and pastures Forest area Other land Notwithstanding the predominance of yield increases in the growth of agricultural production, land expansion will continue to be a significant factor in those developing countries and regions where the potential for expansion exists and the prevailing farming systems and more general demographic and socio-economic conditions are favourable. A frequently asked question in the debate on world food futures and sustainability is: How much land is there that could be used to produce food to meet the needs of a growing population? A new version of the Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ v3.0) analysis was recently finished (Fischer G. et al., 2011). The GAEZ, combining soil, terrain and climate characteristics with crop production requirements, estimates the suitability (in terms of land extents and attainable yield levels; Box 4.2) for crop production of each land grid cell at the 5arc-minute-level, at four technology and management levels (low, intermediate, high and mixed; see Box 4.3). The suitability assessments provide extents for a range of suitability classes as follows: Very suitable, suitable, moderately suitable, marginally suitable, very marginally suitable and not suitable. Fischer et al. (2010) condense these six classes into three classes, (i) prime land, (ii) good land and (iii) marginal and not suitable land. Prime land is characterized as very suitable land with attainable yields of over 80 percent of maximum constraint-free yields. Good land represents suitable and moderately suitable land with attainable yield levels of 40 to 80 percent of maximum constraint-free yields and marginal and not suitable land includes all land with estimated attainable yields that are less than 40 percent of maximum constraintfree yields. 107
PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological zone (AEZ) methodology The AEZ modelling uses detailed agronomic-based knowledge to simulate land resources availability, assess farm-level management options and estimate crop production potentials. It employs detailed spatial biophysical and socio-economic datasets to distribute its computations at fine gridded intervals over the entire globe (Fischer et al., 2002). This land-resources inventory is used to assess, for specified management conditions and levels of inputs, the suitability of crops in relation to both rain-fed and irrigated conditions, and to quantify expected attainable production of cropping activities relevant to specific agro-ecological contexts. The characterization of land resources includes components of climate, soils, landform, and present land cover. Crop modelling and environmental matching procedures are used to identify cropspecific environmental limitations, under various levels of inputs and management conditions. In summary, the AEZ framework contains the following basic elements: • Land resources database, containing geo-referenced climate, soil and terrain data; • Land Utilization Types (LUT) database of agricultural production systems, describing cropspecific environmental requirements and adaptability characteristics, including input level and management; • Mathematical procedures for matching crop LUT requirements with agro-ecological zones data and estimating potentially attainable crop yields, by land unit and grid-cell (AEZ global assessment includes 2.2 million land grid cells at 5′ by 5′ latitude/longitude); • Assessments of crop suitability and quantification of land productivity. Source: excerpt from Fischer et al. (2010). Box 4. 3 Assumed levels of inputs and management Low-level inputs/traditional management Under the low input, traditional management assumption, the farming system is largely subsistence based and not necessarily market oriented. Production is based on the use of traditional cultivars (if improved cultivars are used, they are treated in the same way as local cultivars), labour intensive techniques, and no application of nutrients, no use of chemicals for pest and disease control and minimum conservation measures. Intermediate-level inputs/improved management Under the intermediate input, improved management assumption, the farming system is partly market oriented. Production for subsistence plus commercial sale is a management objective. Production is based on improved varieties, on manual labour with hand tools and/or animal traction and some mechanization. It is medium labour intensive, uses some fertilizer application and chemical pest, disease and weed control, adequate fallows and some conservation measures. High-level inputs/advanced management Under the high input, advanced management assumption, the farming system is mainly market oriented. Commercial production is a management objective. Production is based on improved high yielding varieties, is fully mechanized with low labour intensity and uses optimum applications of nutrients and chemical pest, disease and weed control. 108
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
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PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
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PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
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PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
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PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
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PROOF COPY by people. In particular
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PROOF COPY production potential. Th
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PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
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PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
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PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
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PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
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PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
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PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
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PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
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PROOF COPY The other major commodit
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PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
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PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
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PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123 and 124: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
Page 133 and 134: PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
Page 135 and 136: PROOF COPY million ha at an average
Page 137 and 138: PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
Page 139 and 140: PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
Page 141 and 142: PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
Page 143 and 144: PROOF COPY under way for some time,
Page 145 and 146: PROOF COPY Livestock production is
Page 147 and 148: Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
Page 149 and 150: Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
Page 151 and 152: PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
Page 153 and 154: PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
Page 155 and 156: PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
Page 157 and 158: PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
Page 159 and 160: PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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