World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao
World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao
World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao
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PROOF COPY<br />
<strong>World</strong> <strong>agriculture</strong> <strong>towards</strong> <strong>2030</strong>/<strong>2050</strong>: <strong>the</strong> <strong>2012</strong> <strong>revision</strong><br />
Nikos Alexandratos and Jelle Bruinsma<br />
Global Perspective Studies Team<br />
FAO Agricultural Development Economics Division<br />
Abstract<br />
This paper is a re-make of Chapters 1-3 of <strong>the</strong> Interim Report <strong>World</strong> Agriculture: <strong>towards</strong><br />
<strong>2030</strong>/<strong>2050</strong> (FAO, 2006). In addition, this new paper includes a Chapter 4 on production<br />
factors (land, water, yields, fertilizers). Revised and more recent data have been used as basis<br />
for <strong>the</strong> new projections, as follows: (a) updated historical data from <strong>the</strong> Food Balance Sheets<br />
1961-2007 as of June 2010; (b) undernourishment estimates from The State of Food<br />
Insecurity in <strong>the</strong> <strong>World</strong> 2010 (SOFI) and related new parameters (CVs, minimum daily energy<br />
requirements) are used in <strong>the</strong> projections; (c) new population data and projections from <strong>the</strong><br />
UN <strong>World</strong> Population Prospects - Revision of 2008; (d) new GDP data and projections from<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>World</strong> Bank; (e) anew base year of 2005/07 (<strong>the</strong> previous edition used <strong>the</strong> base year<br />
1999/01); (f) updated estimates of land resources from <strong>the</strong> new evaluation of <strong>the</strong> Global Agroecological<br />
Zones (GAEZ) study of FAO and IIASA; (g) updated estimates of existing<br />
irrigation, renewable water resources and potentials for irrigation expansion; and (h) changes<br />
in <strong>the</strong> text as required by <strong>the</strong> new historical data and projections.<br />
Like <strong>the</strong> interim report, this re-make does not include projections for <strong>the</strong> Fisheries and<br />
Forestry sectors. Calories from fish are, however, included, in <strong>the</strong> food consumption<br />
projections, along with those from o<strong>the</strong>r commodities (e.g. spices) not analysed individually;<br />
and estimates of land under forest and in protected areas from <strong>the</strong> GAEZ are taken into<br />
account and excluded from <strong>the</strong> estimates of land areas suitable for crop production into which<br />
<strong>agriculture</strong> could expand in <strong>the</strong> future.<br />
The projections presented reflect <strong>the</strong> magnitudes and trajectories we estimate <strong>the</strong> major food<br />
and <strong>agriculture</strong> variables may assume in <strong>the</strong> future; <strong>the</strong>y are not meant to reflect how <strong>the</strong>se<br />
variables may be required to evolve in <strong>the</strong> future in order to achieve some normative<br />
objective, e.g. ensure food security for all, eliminate undernourishment or reduce it to any<br />
given desired level, or avoid food overconsumption leading to obesity and related Non-<br />
Communicable Diseases.<br />
Keywords: agricultural outlook, food demand, production growth, nutrition, crop production,<br />
global outlook, land use, irrigation demand, crop yields<br />
JEL classification: FO1, O13, Q11, Q17, Q18, Q21, Q24, Q25<br />
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