World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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3.4 Oilcrops, vegetable oils and products 3.4.1 Past and present PROOF COPY Fastest growth of all sub-sectors of global agriculture. The oilcrops sector has been one of the most dynamic parts of world agriculture in recent decades. In the three decades to 2007 it grew at 4.3 percent p.a. (Table 3.6) 55 , compared with an average of 2.1 percent p.a. for all agriculture, including livestock (Table 3.1). A major driving force on the demand side for vegetable oils has been their use for non-food purposes. As noted (Chapter 2, Table 2.5), food demand in the developing countries has also been a fast growing item (4.1 percent p.a. since 1970). The strong growth of demand for protein products for animal feed was also a major supporting factor in the buoyancy of the oilcrops sector. The rapid growth of the oilcrops sector reflects, in addition to the growth of non-food industrial uses, the synergy of these fast rising components of the demand for food –food demand for oils favouring all edible oilcrops that had the potential for rapid expansion of production, e.g. the oil palm, and that for livestock products favouring oilcrops with high protein content oilmeals for feed, e.g. soybeans (see below). Growing contribution to food supplies and food security. World production, consumption and trade in this sector have been increasingly dominated by a small number of crops (Table 3.6) and countries. The oilpalm, soybeans and rapeseed provided 82 percent of the total increment in world oilcrop production since 1990 (in oil equivalent), with the former gaining share. However, the more traditional and less glamorous oilcrops continue to be very important as major elements in the food supply and food security situation in many countries as they account for a major part of their total oilcrop production, e.g. sesame seed in the Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia and Myanmar; groundnuts in the Sudan, Ghana, Myanmar, Viet Nam, Senegal, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the United Republic of Tanzania and Benin; coconuts in the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Viet Nam and Mexico; olive oil in the Mediterranean countries; and cottonseed oil in the countries of Central Asia and those in the Sahel, Pakistan, Turkey and the Syrian Arab Republic. The rapid growth of food consumption in the developing countries, in conjunction with the high calorie content of oil products, has been a major component of the increases achieved in their total food consumption (national averages kcal/person/day, see Chapter 2). This trend is set to continue, although at slower rates than in the past, as vegetable oils still have significant scope for consumption increases in most developing countries. Non-food uses. As noted, the major driving force on the demand side in recent years has been the non-food use of vegetable oils, with China and the EU being major contributors to this growth. The data do not indicate what such use is, though the bulk of it should be the non-food industrial uses (“other utilizations” in FBS terminology) –paints, detergents, lubricants, oleochemicals in general and, increasingly, biodiesel 56 . In terms of actual oil produced and used (rather than of oil equivalent of oilcrops) the world is apparently using some 51 million tonnes for these “other utilizations”, 41 percent a total use of some 125 million tonnes. The increase was particularly rapid in the last ten years or so: in the mid-1990s such use was 21 million tonnes, 28 percent of total use of 77 million tonnes. 55 For the derivation of the growth rates of the entire oilcrops sector, the different crops are added together with weights equal to their oil content. This is what the expression ‘oil equivalent’, used in this study, means. 56 One should be careful with these numbers as statisticians often use this category of demand as the dumping ground for unexplained residuals of domestic disappearance. There is no doubt, however, that non-food industrial uses are a dynamic element of demand. 85
PROOF COPY The production of biodiesel played a primary role in boosting such use, though historical data are scarce: n the EU, mainly from rapeseed oil and to a smaller extent from soybean oil and sunflowerseed oil; in the United States of America, Argentina and Brazil from soybean oil; and in Indonesia and Malaysia for palm oil. As a basis for the projections in this “limited biofuels” scenario we use the OECD-FAO estimate of some 7 million tonnes global use for our base year 2005/07 and the projection of 29 million tonnes in 2019 (Annex 3.1). The latest EU study has an estimate of vegetable oils use for bioenergy of 9 million tonnes in 2010 and projects it to increase to 12 million tonnes by 2020 (European Commission, 2011, Table A10). The other main industrial products involved (paints, detergents, lubricants, oleochemicals in general) are commodities for which world demand can be expected to grow much faster than the demand for food. Table 3.6 Major oilcrops, world production Actual oil production Oilcrops in oil equivalent Million tonnes Growth rates (percent p.a.) 2005/ 2005/ 1970- 1980- 1990- 2005/ 2030- 2005/ Soybeans 35.3 41.6 4.1 4 4.8 1.6 1.0 1.3 Oil palm 41.2 41.7 8.1 7.7 7.6 2.5 0.7 1.7 Rapeseed 17.5 20.0 6 5.2 4.1 2.1 0.9 1.6 Sunflower seed 11.2 12.5 3.1 2.4 1.6 1.4 0.8 1.1 Groundnuts 5.3 10.0 2.4 3 2.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 Coconuts 3.5 7.5 2.2 2.4 2 1.6 0.9 1.2 Cotton seed 4.9 7.4 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.8 Sesame seed 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.2 1.5 1.9 Other oilcrops 7.0 6.6 1.6 1.9 2.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 Total 126.7 148.6 4.2 4.3 4.4 1.9 0.9 1.4 Oils from non-oilcrops (maize, rice bran) 3.3 Concentration of production growth in a small number of crops and countries. The three oilcrops mentioned above (oilpalm, soybeans and rapeseed) account for 69 percent of world production (in oil equivalent – Table 3.6). Their share was only 39 percent in the early 1970s. Moreover, a good part of these increases came from a small number of countries: for soybeans, 60 percent of the entire increase from 1999/01-2005/07 came from Brazil and Argentina, followed by the United States of America and, to a much smaller extent, India and China; for palm oil 90 percent came from Malaysia and Indonesia; and for rapeseed 90 percent came from the EU, China, Canada and India. Growing role of trade. The rapid growth of demand in the developing countries was accompanied by the emergence of several of them as major importers of oils and/or oilseeds, with net imports rising by leaps and bounds. Thus, in 2005/07 there were nine developing countries, each importing net over 1 million tonnes (Table 3.7). Together they had net imports of 28 million tonnes, of which 13 in China alone, reflecting both imports of oils and, as noted, large imports of soybeans. This represents an increase from the 6 million in the early 1990s and only 3 million tonnes ten years earlier. Numerous other developing countries are smaller net importers, but still account for another 10 million tonnes of net imports, a five-fold 86
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
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PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
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PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
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PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
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PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
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PROOF COPY by people. In particular
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PROOF COPY production potential. Th
Page 41 and 42: PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
Page 43 and 44: PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
Page 45 and 46: PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
Page 47 and 48: PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
Page 49 and 50: PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
Page 51 and 52: PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
Page 53 and 54: PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123 and 124: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
Page 133 and 134: PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
Page 135 and 136: PROOF COPY million ha at an average
Page 137 and 138: PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
Page 139 and 140: PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
Page 141 and 142: PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
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PROOF COPY under way for some time,
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PROOF COPY Livestock production is
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Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
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Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
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PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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