World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

PROOF COPY
Livestock production is the world’s largest user of land, either directly through grazing
or indirectly through consumption of fodder and feed grains. Globally, livestock production
currently accounts for some 36 percent of the gross value of agricultural production. In the
developed countries this share amounts to half of total production and in developing countries
for almost one-third. As mentioned above (section 4.1), developing countries are expected to
continue to increase their share in world production so that by 2050 they could account for 70
percent of world meat production (up from 58 percent in 2005/07) and for 61 percent of world
milk production (46 percent in 2005/07).
Increased production can be achieved by a combination of expansion in animal numbers
and increased productivity. Higher productivity is a compound of higher off-take rates
(shorter production cycles by, for example, faster fattening), and higher carcass weight and
milk or egg yields. The projections (Table 4.19) show that the increase in livestock numbers
will remain significant, but less so than in the past. Higher carcass weights will play a more
important role in beef and mutton production, while higher off-take rates (shorter production
cycles) will be more important in pig and poultry meat production.
There are considerable problems in getting reliable data for off-take rates and carcass
weights. To circumvent these, meat production can be compared directly with herd sizes. For
example, over the last decade (1997-2007), world beef production increased by 1.2 percent
p.a., while cattle numbers increased by only 0.5 percent, implying an annual productivity
improvement of 0.7 percent. Small ruminant production increased by 2.1 percent p.a. while
flock size increased by only 1.1 percent, suggesting a 1.0 percent annual increase in meat
production per animal in stock.
There are substantial differences between regions and countries, however. In sub-
Saharan Africa the increase in pig numbers was greater than the growth in production,
indicating a decline in meat productivity. In Asia, where land is scarce, growth in herd size for
cattle and buffaloes was much lower than the growth in output, indicating that intensification
and increased productivity were relatively more important. Considerable increases in
productivity were seen for poultry production with an annual increase (over 1997-2007) of 2.5
percent in Latin America and a very high 5.5 percent in South Asia.
Meat or milk output per animal remains higher in developed countries than in
developing ones. For example, in 2005/07 the yield of beef per animal (carcass weight) in
developing countries was 166 kg compared with 271 kg in developed countries (Table 4.19),
while annual average milk yields were 1.3 and 5.0 tonnes per milking cow respectively. Pork
and poultry productivity levels are more similar across regions, reflecting the greater ease of
transfer and adoption of production techniques. With only slow growth foreseen in the yields
levels in developed countries, these ‘yield gaps’ could slowly decline over the projection
period.
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