World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY increase since the early 1980s. This group includes a number of countries that turned from net exporters to net importers over this period, e.g. Senegal and Sri Lanka. Table 3.7 Net trade balances for oilseeds, oils and products (in oil equivalent) 1 Million tonnes (oil equivalent) 1969/ 1979/ 1989/ 2005/ 2030 2050 Developing countries 2.3 1.5 4.1 10.3 15.9 14.2 Malaysia 0.5 2.6 6.4 16.1 Indonesia 0.3 0.4 1.2 13.3 Argentina 0.3 1.1 3.0 8.8 Brazil 0.3 1.2 1.4 7.0 Paraguay 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 Sub-total, 5 major exporters 1.4 5.4 12.4 46.1 74.2 85.5 Other developing exporters 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.8 China 0.1 -0.1 -1.3 -12.9 India -0.1 -1.3 -0.2 -4.5 Mexico 0.0 -0.3 -0.9 -2.1 Pakistan -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -2.0 Bangladesh -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -1.4 Turkey 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -1.3 Iran -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -1.3 Republic of Korea 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1 Egypt -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -1.0 Sub-total, 9 major importers -0.4 -3.1 -6.1 -27.7 -44.9 -54.2 Other developing Importers 0.5 -1.9 -3.3 -9.7 -15.6 -19.9 Developed countries -2.3 -1.3 -3.8 -6.7 -12.3 -10.6 United States of America 2.3 5.4 2.9 5.1 Canada 0.3 0.9 1.0 3.3 Japan -1.0 -1.7 -2.3 -2.8 EU-27 -4.0 -4.7 -3.8 -11.3 Other Developed 0.1 -1.2 -1.6 -1.0 World balance (stat. discrep.) 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.6 3.6 3.6 1 Trade numbers (in oil equivalent) are derived from trade data in oils, derived products and oilseeds; trade in oilmeals not included in order to avoid double counting in the equation: production + net trade = consumption expressed in oil equivalent. With these rates of increase of imports, the traditional net trade surplus in oils/oilseeds of the developing countries would have turned negative if it were not for the spectacular growth of exports of a few developing countries that came to dominate the world export scene, viz. Malaysia and Indonesia for palm oil and Brazil and Argentina for soybeans. This has led to the net exports of the developing countries as a whole being now twice as high as in the early 1990s, despite the rising imports of most of them. The mirror image is the growth of the net deficit of the developed countries increasing 3-fold over the same period, mostly because of increases of the net imports of the EU, partly compensated by modest increases in 87
PROOF COPY the exports of the two major net exporters, the United States of America and Canada, and the more substantial, but still relatively small, increase in those of the non-EU Eastern Europe. Oilcrops responsible foremost agricultural land expansion. On the production side, oilcrops expanded mainly in land-abundant countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, Malaysia, the United States of America, Canada, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The oil palm and the two fast growing annual oilcrops, soybeans and rapeseed account for most of the expansion of cultivated land under all crops in the developing countries and the world as a whole. Globally, the harvested area 57 in oilcrops expanded by 65 million ha (mha) between 1989/91 and 2005/07, of which 48 mha in the developing countries and 17 mha in the developed ones. The area in other main crops (cereals, roots and tubers, pulses, fibres and sugar crops) declined by 8 mha (56 mha decline in the developed countries and 48 mha increase in the developing ones). These numbers clearly demonstrate that land expansion continues to play an important role in the growth of crop production. The near doubling of oilcrop production in oil equivalent between 1989/91 and 2005/07 in developing countries was brought about by a 47 percent or 48 million ha expansion of land under these crops, at the same time as land under the above mentioned other main crops also increased by an equal amount. 3.4.2 Prospects for the oilcrops sector Food demand. As noted, the growth of food demand in the developing countries was a major driving force behind the rapid growth of the oilcrops sector in the historical period. The most populous countries, China and India, played a major role in these developments. Will these trends continue in the future? In the first place, slower population growth, particularly in the developing countries, will be reflected in slower growth rates of their aggregate demand for food, ceteris paribus. But other things will not be equal: in particular, the per capita consumption of vegetable oils in the developing countries was only 4.9 kg in the early 1970s. This afforded great scope for the increases in consumption which took place. However, in the process per capita consumption grew to 10.1 kg in 2005/07 (Table 2.5). Within this average, India increased its per capita consumption 76 percent and China 3.3-fold. The growth of food demand in these two countries accounted for 43 percent of the increment in the food demand of the developing countries. While oils will remain a food item with high income elasticity in most developing countries in the short and medium term-future, the higher levels that will be achieved gradually will lead to slower growth in the longer term future. Thus, per capita consumption will likely rise at much slower rates compared with the past (Tables 2.5-2.6). This slowdown must be seen in the context of rising food demand for all commodities and the implied levels of per capita kcal. We noted in Chapter 2 (Figure 2.2) that 44 percent of the population of the developing countries will be in countries with over 3000 kcal/person/day in 2050. Inevitably, consumption of these calorie-rich foods (oils and products) cannot continue growing at the fast rates of the past. This prospect notwithstanding, there will still be many low income countries which in 2050 will have per capita consumption of fats and oils totally inadequate for good nutrition, the result of persistent low incomes and poverty. 57 The increase of harvested area implies not only expansion of the cultivated land in a physical sense (elsewhere in this report referred to as arable area) but also expansion of the land under multiple cropping (in the harvested or sown area definition, a hectare of arable land is counted as two if it is cropped twice in a year). Therefore, the harvested area expansion under the different crops discussed here could overstate the extent to which physical area in cultivation has increased. This overstatement is likely to be more pronounced for cereals and other annuals than for oilcrops, as the latter include also tree crops (oil and coconut palms, olive trees). 88
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
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PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
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PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
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PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
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PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
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PROOF COPY by people. In particular
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PROOF COPY production potential. Th
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PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
Page 43 and 44: PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
Page 45 and 46: PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
Page 47 and 48: PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
Page 49 and 50: PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
Page 51 and 52: PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
Page 53 and 54: PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123 and 124: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
Page 133 and 134: PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
Page 135 and 136: PROOF COPY million ha at an average
Page 137 and 138: PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
Page 139 and 140: PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
Page 141 and 142: PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
Page 143 and 144: PROOF COPY under way for some time,
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PROOF COPY Livestock production is
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Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
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Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
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PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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