World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY Figure 4.5 Arable land and land under permanent crops: past and future Million ha Figure 4.6 Developing countries with over 10 million ha of arable land in use 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 world developing countries developed countries Note: These 18 countries account in 2005/07 for 75 percent of the total arable land in use in developing countries. 1548 928 1589 975 1645 1036 1661 1075 619 614 608 586 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2005/2007 2050 115
PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land in use is concentrated in a small number of developing countries (Figure 4.6). An increasing number of developing countries would witness a decline in the arable land area towards the end of the projection period and embark on a pattern already seen for most developed countries (with production only increasing very slowly and increases in yield permitting a reduction in harvested crop areas). Although the developing countries' arable area is projected to expand by 107 million ha over the projection period, the harvested area would increase by 130 million ha or some 14 percent, due to increases in cropping intensities (Table 4.9). The overall cropping intensity for developing countries could rise by about 3 percentage points over the projection period (from 95 to 98 percent). Cropping intensities continue to rise through shorter fallow periods and more multiple cropping. An increasing share of irrigated land in total agricultural land also contributes to more multiple cropping. Over one-third of the arable land in South and East Asia is irrigated (land in use), a share which is projected to rise to over 36 percent in 2050. This high share of irrigation in total arable land is one of the reasons why the average cropping intensities in these regions are considerably higher than in other regions. Average cropping intensities in developing countries, excluding China and India (which together account for well over half of the irrigated area in the developing countries) are and will continue to be much lower. Table 4.9 Arable land in use, cropping intensities and harvested land Total land in use Rainfed land Irrigated land* ARL# CI HL ARL CI HL ARL CI HL World 2005/2007 1 592 88 1 393 1 335 80 1 067 257 127 326 2050 1 661 92 1 527 1 385 84 1 162 277 132 365 Developed countries 2005/07 624 75 470 569 74 419 56 91 50 2050 586 81 474 530 79 420 56 97 55 Developing countries 2005/07 968 95 923 767 84 648 201 137 276 2050 1 075 98 1 053 855 87 742 220 141 310 excl. China and India 2005/07 668 82 551 581 77 445 88 121 106 2050 775 87 674 676 81 549 99 125 125 # ARL = arable land (million ha); CI = (HL/ARL) = cropping intensity in percent; HL = harvested land (million ha). * Irrigated area actually in use as distinguished from ‘area equipped for irrigation’ (Table 4.10). Rising cropping intensities could be one of the factors responsible for increasing the risk of land degradation and thus threatening sustainability, in particular when not accompanied by land conservation measures, including adequate and balanced use of fertilizers to compensate for the removal of soil nutrient by crops. It is expected that this risk will continue to exist because in many cases the socio-economic conditions do not favour the implementation of the technological changes required to ensure the sustainable intensification of land use. 116
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
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PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
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PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
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PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
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PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
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PROOF COPY by people. In particular
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PROOF COPY production potential. Th
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PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
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PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
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PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
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PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
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PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
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PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
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PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
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PROOF COPY The other major commodit
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PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
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PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
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PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
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PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
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PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
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PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
Page 133 and 134: PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
Page 135 and 136: PROOF COPY million ha at an average
Page 137 and 138: PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
Page 139 and 140: PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
Page 141 and 142: PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
Page 143 and 144: PROOF COPY under way for some time,
Page 145 and 146: PROOF COPY Livestock production is
Page 147 and 148: Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
Page 149 and 150: Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
Page 151 and 152: PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
Page 153 and 154: PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
Page 155 and 156: PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
Page 157 and 158: PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
Page 159 and 160: PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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