World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

More documents

Recommendations

Info

PROOF COPY Figure 2.9 Developing countries: population (million) in countries with x% undernourished Million 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 >20 % 10-20 % 5-10 %
PROOF COPY in North Africa have high shares of direct consumption of cereals and very small ones of root crops. The opposite is true for several countries in sub-Saharan Africa, like those mentioned above. However, sub-Saharan Africa also has countries at the other extreme (e.g. Mali, Niger, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Lesotho, etc): over 60 percent of calories coming from cereals and only 2-3 percent from root crops. The role of the prevailing agro-ecological characteristics conditioning the production patterns is overwhelming as a key determinant of what people eat, particularly when incomes per capita and food consumption levels are low and high shares of the population depend on agriculture for a living. Per capita food use of cereals 28 seems to have peaked in the mid-1990s and declined slowly thereafter. This is true for the world as a whole as well as for the aggregate of the developing countries. This of course raises the question why should the average of the developing countries be levelling off when so many of them are far from having reached adequate levels of food consumption. In practice, the peak and subsequent decline reflects primarily developments in China and, to a smaller extent, India. China’s consumption of cereals declined while total calories and those derived from other foods were increasing. India’s decline was accompanied by falls in total kcal/person/year which remained very low, a phenomenon often referred to in the literature as a “paradox” or “puzzle” (see Annex 2.1 for more details). These two countries account for 37 percent of world population and for 47 percent of that of the developing countries. Therefore trends in their values influence decisively the global totals. Excluding these two large countries, the average for the developing countries has continued to grow, albeit very slowly. Figure 2.10 illustrates. Figure 2.10 Cereals consumption (direct food only) in kg/person/year 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 148 146 1969/71 1979/81 162 158 151 1989/91 1999/01 2005/07 127 1969/71 158 1979/81 176 175 1989/91 1999/01 161 2005/07 28 Food use of cereals includes the grain equivalent of all cereals-based food products, including products like beer produced from barley and sugar-substitute sweeteners produced from maize, e.g. corn syrups. 140 1969/71 152 160 160 155 144 152 151 153 154 India China Developing Developing excl. India and China 1979/81 1989/91 1999/01 2005/07 1969/71 1979/81 1989/91 1999/01 2005/07 44
Page 1 and 2: WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
Page 3 and 4: Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
Page 5 and 6: Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
Page 7 and 8: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
Page 9 and 10: PROOF COPY producing countries rema
Page 11 and 12: PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
Page 13 and 14: PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
Page 15 and 16: PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
Page 17 and 18: PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
Page 19 and 20: PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
Page 21 and 22: PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
Page 23 and 24: PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
Page 25 and 26: PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
Page 27 and 28: PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
Page 29 and 30: PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
Page 31 and 32: PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
Page 33 and 34: PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
Page 35 and 36: PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
Page 37 and 38: PROOF COPY by people. In particular
Page 39 and 40: PROOF COPY production potential. Th
Page 41 and 42: PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
Page 43 and 44: PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
Page 45 and 46: PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
Page 47 and 48: PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
Page 49: PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
Page 53 and 54: PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102:
PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104:
PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106:
PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108:
PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110:
PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112:
PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114:
PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116:
PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118:
PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120:
PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122:
PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123 and 124:
PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125 and 126:
PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128:
PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130:
PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132:
PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
Page 133 and 134:
PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
Page 135 and 136:
PROOF COPY million ha at an average
Page 137 and 138:
PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
Page 139 and 140:
PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
Page 141 and 142:
PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
Page 143 and 144:
PROOF COPY under way for some time,
Page 145 and 146:
PROOF COPY Livestock production is
Page 147 and 148:
Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
Page 149 and 150:
Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
Page 151 and 152:
PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
Page 153 and 154:
PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
Page 155 and 156:
PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
Page 157 and 158:
PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
Page 159 and 160:
PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
show all

World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?