World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY when discussing medium term (10-20 years) prospects. This is because in a number of countries populations are projected to be sizeable multiples of current ones: in the above mentioned case of Zambia, population in 2100 is projected to be nearly 11-fold that of 2010. Other countries with high multiples include the Niger, Malawi, Somalia, the United Republic of Tanzania, Burkina Faso and others. Such demographic futures can set the stage for persistence of food insecurity for a long time, particularly when they concern low-income countries with poor agricultural resources and high dependence on the sector for employment and income. Very high population increases are not the only aspect of demographic futures that may affect food security outcomes. The evolving demographic picture may also impact the development prospects, and perhaps also those of food security, in countries at the other end of the spectrum: those that experience drastic population declines. The accompanying changes in demographic structures in favour of aging populations can represent real brakes on the economies, mainly, but not only, via the increasing dependency rates, reduced dynamism and the growing stress on public finances. 23
PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR FOOD AND NUTRITION 2.1 The broad picture: historical developments and present situation 2.1.1 Progress made in raising food consumption per person Food consumption, in terms of kcal/person/day, is the key variable used for measuring and evaluating the evolution of the world food situation 14 . The world has made significant progress in raising food consumption per person. In the last three and a half decades it increased from an average of 2370 kcal/person/day to 2770 kcal/person/day (Table 2.1). This growth was accompanied by significant structural change. Diets shifted towards more livestock products, vegetable oils, etc. and away from staples such as roots and tubers (Tables 2.5 and 2.6). The gains in the world average reflected predominantly those of the developing countries, given that the developed ones had fairly high levels of per capita food consumption already in the past. In the latter, there was a decline in the 1990s, and subsequent recovery (Figure 2.1), which reflected the transformations in the former centrally planned economies of Europe. For the developing countries, the overall progress has been decisively influenced by the significant gains made by some of the most populous among them This can be appreciated by noting how much larger is the increase of the population-weighted average (from 2055 to 2620) compared with that of the simple average of the 98 developing countries analysed individually in this study (from 2170 to 2500). There are currently 8 developing countries with a population of 100 million or more. Four of them (Mexico, Brazil, Nigeria and China) account for one third of the population of the developing countries and have per capita food consumption in the range 2700-3240 kcal/person/day, up from 1920-2580 in 1970, and incidence of undernourishment in the range of 4-10 percent. Countries with over 100 million inhabitants that failed to make comparable progress include those in South Asia (kcal/person/day in the range 2250-2300, up from 2030-2250 in 1970). The region’s food per capita has been virtually flat at low levels over the last ten years. Countries in this region still have undernourishment in the range 21-27 percent. This has dragged down the indicators for all developing countries. If we exclude South Asia, the rest of the developing countries grew from 2050 to 2750 (Table 2.1 and Figure 2.1). The failure of India’s high economic growth to translate into significantly increased food consumption is a major factor why more progress was not made in the developing countries as a whole15. The FBS data indicate that the country has currently the same low kcal/person/day (2300) as it had 25 years ago. It accounts for 238 million of the 827 million undernourished of the developing countries. If it had made even modest progress, say to 2500 kcal/person/day, the total for the 14 The more correct term for this variable would be “national average apparent food consumption or availability”, since the data come from the national Food Balance Sheets rather than from consumption surveys. The term “food consumption” is used in this sense here and in other chapters. 15 India’s household final consumption expenditure per capita (at constant 2005$ at Purchasing Power Parities- PPP) increased from $PPP 538 in 1980 to $PPP 1457 in 2007, i.e. by 170 percent (World Bank, World Development Indicators, accessed Jan. 2011). 24
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Page 3 and 4: Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
Page 5 and 6: Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
Page 7 and 8: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
Page 9 and 10: PROOF COPY producing countries rema
Page 11 and 12: PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
Page 13 and 14: PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
Page 15 and 16: PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
Page 17 and 18: PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
Page 19 and 20: PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
Page 21 and 22: PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
Page 23 and 24: PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
Page 25 and 26: PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
Page 27 and 28: PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
Page 29: PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
Page 33 and 34: PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
Page 35 and 36: PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
Page 37 and 38: PROOF COPY by people. In particular
Page 39 and 40: PROOF COPY production potential. Th
Page 41 and 42: PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
Page 43 and 44: PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
Page 45 and 46: PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
Page 47 and 48: PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
Page 49 and 50: PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
Page 51 and 52: PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
Page 53 and 54: PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
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PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
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PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
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PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
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PROOF COPY countries in per capita
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PROOF COPY associated with such lar
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
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PROOF COPY The production of biodie
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PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
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3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
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PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
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PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
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PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
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PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
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PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
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PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
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PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
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PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
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PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
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PROOF COPY products facing finite n
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PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
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PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
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PROOF COPY The developed countries
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PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
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PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
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PROOF COPY million ha at an average
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PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
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PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
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PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
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PROOF COPY under way for some time,
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PROOF COPY Livestock production is
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Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
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Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
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PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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