World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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4.2.1 Sources of growth PROOF COPY Growth in crop production comes on account of growth in crop yields and expansion in the physical area (arable land) allocated to crops which, together with increases in cropping intensities (i.e. by increasing multiple cropping and/or shortening of fallow periods), leads to an expansion in the actually harvested area. For the purposes of this study, a detailed investigation was made of present and future land/yield combinations for 34 crops under rainfed and irrigated cultivation conditions, for 105 countries and country groups. The informal method applied takes into account whatever information was available but is in the main based on expert-judgment (see Box 4.1 for a brief description of the approach followed). The summary results shown in Table 4.4 should be taken as rough indications only. For example, yields here are weighted yields (international price weights) for 34 crops 68 , historical data for arable land are often unreliable for many countries, data on cropping intensities for most countries are non-existent and were derived by comparing data on harvested land, aggregated over all crops, with data on arable land, and so on. Table 4.4 Sources of growth in crop production (percent) Arable land expansion 1961- 2007 2005/ 2007- 2050 Increases in cropping intensity 1961- 2007 2005/ 2007- 2050 Yield increases 1961- 2007 2005/ 2007- 2050 All developing countries 23 21 8 6 70 73 Sub-Saharan Africa 31 20 31 6 38 74 Near East/North Africa 17 0 22 20 62 80 Latin America and the Caribbean 40 40 7 7 53 53 South Asia 6 6 12 2 82 92 East Asia 28 0 -6 15 77 85 World memo items Developing countries with less than 20 14 10 9 10 77 80 percent of their potentially arable land in use in 2005/2007* Developing countries with over 60 percent of 35 6 59 their potentially arable land in use in 2005/2007** 4 6 90 * 24 countries with a gross land balance exceeding 80 percent of total suitable land in 2005/2007. ** 19 countries with a gross land balance less than 40 percent of total suitable land in 2005/2007. Source historical estimates: Bruinsma (2011). Some 80 percent of the projected growth in crop production in developing countries would come from intensification in the form of yield increases (73 percent) and higher 68 Yields for the aggregate crop sector are gross values of production per harvested ha of all crops (comprising grains, vegetable oils, fruit, coffee, cotton, etc.). As such they are not very appropriate metrics for discussing yield growth issues, which is best done in terms of physical units (see Box 1.1 in Chapter 1). 103
PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6 percent; Table 4.4). The share due to intensification goes up to 94 percent in the land-scarce region South Asia and to 100 percent in Near East/North Africa and East Asia where increases in yield in some countries would also have to compensate for the foreseen decline in their arable land area. Arable land expansion will remain however an important factor in the growth of crop production in many countries of Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa although less so than in the past. These summary results mask, of course, a wide variation among countries. The actual combination of the factors used in crop production (such as land, labour and capital) in the different countries will be determined by their relative prices. Taking the physical availability of land as a proxy for its relative scarcity and hence price, one would expect land to play a greater role in crop production the less scarce it is. For the 24 developing countries, which at present use less than 20 percent of their land estimated to have rainfed crop production potential (the gross balance of prime and good land – see below), arable land expansion is projected to account for over one-third of their crop production growth. At the other end of the spectrum, in the group of 19 land-scarce countries (defined here as countries with more than 60 percent of their prime and good land already in use), the contribution of further land expansion to crop production growth is estimated to be very small (4 percent – see Table 4.4). In the developed countries, the area of arable land in crop production peaked in the late 1960s, then remained stagnant for some time and has been declining since the mid-1980s. Hence growth in crop yields accounted for all of their growth in crop production and in addition compensated for declines in their arable land area. This trend is foreseen to continue also for the period to 2050 (see below). As a result, intensification (higher yields and more intensive use of land) is at the world level seen to contribute 90 percent to the growth in crop production over the projection period. It is interesting to note that growth in wheat and rice production in more and more developing countries will have to come (at least on average) entirely from gains in yield (Table 4.5), with yield increases in many countries also compensating for a decline in the harvested land allocated to these crops. This reflects the fact that food consumption of these commodities reaches saturation levels in an increasing number of countries by 2050 (see also Chapter 3). In the developing countries, the bulk of wheat and rice is produced in the land-scarce regions of Asia and the Near East/North Africa while maize is the major cereal crop in sub- Saharan Africa and Latin America, regions where many countries still have room for area expansion. Expansion of harvested land therefore will continue to be a major contributor to production growth of maize. Table 4.5 Sources of growth for major cereals in developing countries Annual growth (percent p.a.) Production Harvested land Yield Contribution to growth (percent) Harvested Yield land Wheat 1961-2007 3.62 0.68 2.92 19 81 2005/2007-2050 0.87 0.01 0.86 1 99 Rice, paddy 1961-2007 2.46 0.54 1.91 22 78 2005/2007-2050 0.58 -0.05 0.63 -9 109 Maize 1961-2007 3.55 1.05 2.47 30 70 2005/2007-2050 1.43 0.59 0.83 41 59 104
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
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PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
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PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
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PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
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PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
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PROOF COPY by people. In particular
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PROOF COPY production potential. Th
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PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
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PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
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PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
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PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
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PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
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PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
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PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
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PROOF COPY The other major commodit
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PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
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Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
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Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123 and 124: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
Page 133 and 134: PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
Page 135 and 136: PROOF COPY million ha at an average
Page 137 and 138: PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
Page 139 and 140: PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
Page 141 and 142: PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
Page 143 and 144: PROOF COPY under way for some time,
Page 145 and 146: PROOF COPY Livestock production is
Page 147 and 148: Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
Page 149 and 150: Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
Page 151 and 152: PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
Page 153 and 154: PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
Page 155 and 156: PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
Page 157 and 158: PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
Page 159 and 160: PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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