World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

More documents

Recommendations

Info

PROOF COPY Total 100 100 166 231 263 1.4 0.7 Figure 4.12 World fertilizer consumption: past and projected 300 250 200 150 100 50 World fertilizer use (N+P+K in nutrient content) million tons kg/ha 0 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Since the early 1960s, the use of mineral fertilizers has been growing rapidly in developing countries admittedly starting from a very low base (Table 4.15). This has been particularly so in East and South Asia following the introduction of high-yielding varieties. By now high application rates have been reached in East Asia and growth of fertilizer consumption in East Asia is expected to slowdown drastically and eventually fertilizer consumption is expected to decline. For sub-Saharan Africa, above average growth rates are foreseen, starting from a very low base, but fertilizer consumption per hectare is expected to remain at a relatively low level. The latter probably reflects large areas with no fertilizer use at all, combined with small areas of commercial farming with high levels of fertilizer use, and could be seen as a sign of nutrient mining (see also Henao and Baanante, 1999). Average fertilizer productivity, as measured by kg of product obtained per kg of nutrient, shows considerable variation across countries. This reflects a host of factors such as differences in agro-ecological resources (soil, terrain and climate), in management practices and skills and in economic incentives. Fertilizer productivity is also strongly related to soil moisture availability. Furthermore, a high yield/fertilizer ratio may also indicate that fertilizer use is not widespread among farmers (e.g. wheat in Russia, Ethiopia and Algeria), or that high yields are obtained with nutrients other than mineral fertilizer (e.g. manure is estimated to provide almost half of all external nutrient inputs in the EU). Notwithstanding this variability, in many cases the scope for raising fertilizer productivity is substantial, but more so for Nfertilizer than for P- and K-fertilizers (Syers et al., 2008). The degree to which such productivity gains will be pursued depends to a great extent on economic incentives. The projected slowdown in the growth of fertilizer consumption is in the first place due to the expected slowdown in crop production growth (Table 4.3). The reasons for this have been explained in Chapter 3. Again, this is not a sudden change but a gradual process already 172 139 total per ha 231 172 263 191 250 200 150 100 50 135
PROOF COPY under way for some time, as illustrated by the annual growth rates for the last ten years (1997 - 2007) shown in Table 4.15. In some cases it would even represent a “recovery” as compared with recent developments (e.g. the decline of fertilizer consumption in transition countries during the 1990s). As mentioned, fertilizer is most productive in the absence of moisture constraints, i.e. when applied to irrigated crops. For this reason, the expected slowdown in irrigation expansion (section 4.2.4) will also slow the growth of fertilizer consumption. Another factor is the continuing improvement in fertilizer use efficiency, partly driven by new techniques such as biotechnology and precision agriculture, which will continue to reduce mineral fertilizer needs per unit of crop output (at a steady but uncertain pace). For example, in this analysis the average application of N-fertilizer per tonne of cereal production declines slightly from 31.6 kg in 2005/07 to 30.4 kg in 2050. This is an average at world level with little further improvement foreseen in most developed countries. Then there is an increasing concern about the negative environmental impact of high rates of mineral fertilizer use. Finally there is the spread of organic agriculture, and the increasing availability of non-mineral nutrient sources such as manure, recycled human, industrial and agricultural waste and crop by-products. All these factors will tend to reduce growth in fertilizer consumption. Addendum Comparison with previous AT20XX projections for fertilizer consumption in developing countries excluding China. million tonnes 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 FAOSTAT data (May 2011) AT2000 (1988) AT2010 (1995) AT2030 (2003) AT2050 (2012) 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 136
Page 1 and 2:
WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
Page 3 and 4:
Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
Page 5 and 6:
Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
Page 7 and 8:
PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
Page 9 and 10:
PROOF COPY producing countries rema
Page 11 and 12:
PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
Page 13 and 14:
PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
Page 15 and 16:
PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
Page 17 and 18:
PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
Page 19 and 20:
PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
Page 21 and 22:
PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
Page 23 and 24:
PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
Page 25 and 26:
PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
Page 27 and 28:
PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
Page 29 and 30:
PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
Page 31 and 32:
PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
Page 33 and 34:
PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
Page 35 and 36:
PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
Page 37 and 38:
PROOF COPY by people. In particular
Page 39 and 40:
PROOF COPY production potential. Th
Page 41 and 42:
PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
Page 43 and 44:
PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
Page 45 and 46:
PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
Page 47 and 48:
PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
Page 49 and 50:
PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
Page 51 and 52:
PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
Page 53 and 54:
PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56:
PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58:
PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60:
PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62:
PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64:
PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66:
PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68:
PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70:
PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72:
PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74:
PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76:
PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78:
PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80:
PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82:
PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84:
PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86:
PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88:
PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90:
PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123 and 124: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
Page 133 and 134: PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
Page 135 and 136: PROOF COPY million ha at an average
Page 137 and 138: PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
Page 139 and 140: PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
Page 141: PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
Page 145 and 146: PROOF COPY Livestock production is
Page 147 and 148: Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
Page 149 and 150: Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
Page 151 and 152: PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
Page 153 and 154: PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
Page 155 and 156: PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
Page 157 and 158: PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
Page 159 and 160: PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
show all

World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?