World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY period. These projected developments in per capita food consumption in combination with the lower population growth, suggest a further deceleration in the aggregate world food demand for sugar: from 1.9 percent p.a. in the past (1961-2007, or 1.3 percent from 1980-2007) to 1.1 percent in 2005/07-2050. Figure 3.13 Brazil: sugar cane, sugar and ethanol Th. tons Sugar - Million Litres Ethanol 45 000 40 000 35 000 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 Cane used for Sugar (right) Cane used for Ethanol (right) Prod. Sugar (left Axis) Prod. Ethanol (left) Sugar-Net Exports (left) Prod. Sugar Cane (right Axis) Marketing Years, starting May Sources: Production ethanol and sugar cane to 08/09: http://www.unica.com.br; Cane Production last two years and uses for Sugar/Ethanol: USDA/FAS/Sugar Annuals for Brazil; Sugar Production and Exports: USDA/PSD. As a result, developing exporters that benefited from the surge in demand of the importing developing countries and policy reforms in the developed ones may face more limited growth prospects in the long term. The growth of their net exports will increasingly depend on the growth of consumption in the importing developing countries which will be less buoyant than in the past, hence also the potential for export growth from the exporting countries (Figure 3.14). The impact of the lower food demand growth on the world sugar crops sector may be compensated by growing use for biofuel production. Under our “limited biofuels” scenario use of sugar crops in sugar equivalent will increase from 15 percent of world sugar output to 27 percent in 2030 and to 24 percent in 2050. As a consequence, world production should increase faster than world food demand, at 1.3 percent p.a. from 2005/07-2050 vs.1.1 percent. A glimpse on prospects beyond 2019 can be obtained from the recently released projections to 2025 of FAPRI (2011) for ethanol production in Brazil (almost all the sugar cane-based ethanol of the world in the FAPRI projections): it has an increase from 2007/09- 2019 of 122 percent, almost equal to that of OECD-FAO (2010: Table A.33) we use here, and projects a further 27 percent increase from 2019-2025. By implication, the boost to the sugar crops sector coming from biofuels may be weakening over time. 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Million tons Cane 95
PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net trade positions, 1970-2007 and projections Million tons (raw sugar equivalent) 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 1970 Developed Developing Exporters Developing Importers All Developing 1975 1980 1985 1990 Net exporter/importer status of the developing countries as of average 2005/07. 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 96
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
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PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
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PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
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PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
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PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
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PROOF COPY by people. In particular
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PROOF COPY production potential. Th
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PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
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PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
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PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
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PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
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PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
Page 51 and 52: PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
Page 53 and 54: PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123 and 124: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
Page 133 and 134: PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
Page 135 and 136: PROOF COPY million ha at an average
Page 137 and 138: PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
Page 139 and 140: PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
Page 141 and 142: PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
Page 143 and 144: PROOF COPY under way for some time,
Page 145 and 146: PROOF COPY Livestock production is
Page 147 and 148: Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
Page 149 and 150: Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
Page 151 and 152: PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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