World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY countries may be supplied by other developing countries and this will eventually reduce the weight of the industrial country exporters as the main export suppliers. Trade in dairy products will also likely recover, with the net imports of the developing countries resuming moderate growth after a period of stagnation from the mid-80s onwards (Table 3.5). This would reflect continuation of the growth of imports of East Asia and sub- Saharan Africa, as well as some resumption of import growth in the Near East/North Africa region partly compensated by growing net exports from Latin America. Livestock Production and the Use of Cereals and Oilseed Cakes for Animal Feed. Estimates put the world feed use of cereals at 742 million tonnes, or 36 percent of world total cereal use. The bottom part of Table 3.4 compares the growth rates of total livestock production with those of cereals feed use. The latter have been generally lower than the former, suggesting a prima facie case of productivity gains in livestock production in the limited sense of more meat per kg of cereals feed. No doubt, there have been such productivity gains reflecting in part the above mentioned growing share of the poultry sector in total meat production (poultry requires much smaller quantities of cereals feed per kg of meat than beef). However other forces have also been at work leading to the reduced grain/meat ratios. Principal among them is the relative shift of world livestock production out of the regions that use grain-intensive feeding systems to the developing countries that have lower grain/meat ratios on average. The relative shift in the geographical distribution of world livestock production and cereals feed use towards the developing countries reflected not only their faster growth of consumption but also the drastic decline in the 1990s in the livestock production and feed use of the formerly centrally planned economies of Europe, which had high and often inefficient use of cereals feed per unit of output. An additional factor that contributed to the slowdown in the use of cereals as feed has been the shift towards more balanced feed rations which favoured the use of protein-rich oilcakes. Indeed, such use has grown four times as fast as that of cereals from 1980-2007 or from 1990-2007 (Figure 3.8). The process was very pronounced in China, fuelled by rapid expansion of its imports of soybeans: the country now accounts for some 50 percent of world imports of soybeans, up from 10 percent in the mid-1990s. The growth rate of cereals feed use (Figure 3.8) will likely continue to be lower than that of livestock production (Figure 3.5) 53 . Differences, however, will not be as pronounced as in the past: the depressing effect of the reforms in the formerly centrally planned economies of Europe has been exhausted and the increase of the share of poultry in total meat production will be less pronounced than in the past. The increase in developing countries’ share of world livestock production will also contribute, as developing countries show lower cereals feed/livestock ratios 54 . All these factors will reduce the gap in growth rates of cereals feed use and livestock production. 53 Our world cereals feed use projection of 1.1 percent p.a. from 2005/07-2030 (Table 3.4) compares with the just released FAPRI projection of 1.2 percent p.a. from 2005/07-2025. FAPRI, however, shows world feed use of wheat and coarse grains, but not world production of livestock products, only major producers (FAPRI, 2011). 54 Their share may increase to 68 percent in 2050, up from 55 percent at present and the 26 percent of 1970. 83
PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed use of cereals and oilcakes (million tonnes) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Oilcakes Cereals 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Historical data 1980-2007 from FAOSTAT; Projections: World feed use of Cereals: sum of the country feed projections; World projections of oilcakes feed use: world oilcakes production derived as joint products from the summation of the country production projection of oilcrops. An additional factor working in the same direction will be the gradual shift of livestock production in the developing countries from grazing and ‘backyard’ systems to industrial units and stall-fed systems using concentrate feedstuffs. Such structural change in production systems will raise the average grain-meat ratios in developing countries and perhaps compensate partly for opposite trends resulting from the other factors mentioned above. A strong case for this prospect is made in an analysis by the Dutch Centre for World Food Studies (Keyzer et al., 2001). At the same time, a significant increase of cereals-based biofuels may produce byproducts that can substitute for cereals in feed rations; this, together with the rise in cereal prices caused by an eventual substantial diversion of supplies to biofuels, will tend to depress the growth rate of cereals use for feed. As explained elsewhere (Annex 3.1), in the present projections the biofuels factor plays a role, albeit a minor one. In the opposite direction, i.e. continuing to depress the growth of cereals feed use, will be the further increase of the share of protein-rich oilcakes in feed rations, a process that will be supported by the continued expansion of the oilseeds sector faster than that of cereals –see next section. This effect may be reinforced if vegetable oils uses for biofuels were to continue expanding, as oil cakes are produced as joint products with oils, particularly in the case of soybean oil. Figure 3.8 shows the world production of oilcakes (assumed to be used for feed) derived as joint products with the vegetable oils. It rises by 80 percent to 2050, i.e. faster the 50 percent increase in the cereals feed use. 84
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
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PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
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PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
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PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
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PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
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PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
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PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
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PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
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PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
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PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
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PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
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PROOF COPY by people. In particular
Page 39 and 40: PROOF COPY production potential. Th
Page 41 and 42: PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
Page 43 and 44: PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
Page 45 and 46: PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
Page 47 and 48: PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
Page 49 and 50: PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
Page 51 and 52: PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
Page 53 and 54: PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
Page 113 and 114: PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
Page 115 and 116: PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
Page 117 and 118: PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
Page 119 and 120: PROOF COPY products facing finite n
Page 121 and 122: PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
Page 123 and 124: PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
Page 125 and 126: PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
Page 127 and 128: PROOF COPY The developed countries
Page 129 and 130: PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
Page 131 and 132: PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
Page 133 and 134: PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
Page 135 and 136: PROOF COPY million ha at an average
Page 137 and 138: PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
Page 139 and 140: PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
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PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
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PROOF COPY under way for some time,
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PROOF COPY Livestock production is
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Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
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Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
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PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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