World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY developing countries would have declined to 740 million and some progress would have been made towards the target of halving the numbers by 2015. We shall have occasion to revisit the issue of India’s sluggish response of food consumption per capita to the high growth of per capita incomes (Annex 2.1). Whether this pattern of response continues or not, India’s food demand outcomes will have a profound impact on the assessment of long-term prospects of world agriculture and nutrition. Table 2.1 Per capita food consumption (kcal/person/day) 1969/ 1971 New historical data Projections 1979/ 1981 1989/ 1991 1990/ 1992 2005/ 2007 Comparison 1999/2001 2015 2030 2050 New Old World 2 373 2 497 2 634 2 627 2 772 2 860 2 960 3 070 2 719 2 789 Developing countries 2 055 2 236 2 429 2 433 2 619 2 740 2 860 3 000 2 572 2 654 -excluding South Asia 2 049 2 316 2 497 2 504 2 754 2 870 2 970 3 070 2 680 2 758 Sub-Saharan Africa 2 031 2 021 2 051 2 068 2 238 2 360 2 530 2 740 2 136 2 194 Near East / North Africa 2 355 2 804 3 003 2 983 3 007 3 070 3 130 3 200 2 975 2 974 Latin America and the Caribbean 2 442 2 674 2 664 2 672 2 898 2 990 3 090 3 200 2 802 2 836 South Asia 2 072 2 024 2 254 2 250 2 293 2 420 2 590 2 820 2 303 2 392 East Asia 1 907 2 216 2 487 2 497 2 850 3 000 3 130 3 220 2 770 2 872 Developed countries 3 138 3 223 3 288 3 257 3 360 3 390 3 430 3 490 3 251 3 257 While developments in South Asia, with 30 percent of the total population of the developing countries, explain a large part of the failure to make more progress, there are also numerous other less populous countries that failed to make much progress. There are still 20 countries with over 30 percent of their population classified as undernourished (see below). Their average food/capita was 1910 kcal/person/day in 1990/92 (the base year of the halving target): it is about the same (1940 kcal) 15 years later (Figure 2.7). Sixteen of them are in sub- Saharan Africa, no matter that the region as a whole has shown some timid signs of accelerated rate of improvement of per capita food in the current decade, following some acceleration in economic growth and declines in poverty rates (Figure 2.8). 25
PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/day, by region and country groups, 1990-2007 Kcal/person/day 3500 3300 3100 2900 2700 2500 2300 2100 1900 1700 1500 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 Figure 2.2 Developing countries: population living in countries with given kcal/ person/day Million 9 000 8 000 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 - Developed Developing China E. Asia excl. China South Asia Developing excl. S. Asia s. Sah. Africa N.East/N.Africa Lat.America 281 4 099 1 559 5 218 2 233 1986 In 1990/92, 2.3 billion or 55 percent of the population of the developing countries were living in countries with food/capita under 2500 kcal; the percentage has fallen to 45 percent but, with the growth in population, there are still 2.3 billion in 2005/07 (Figure 2.2). 1988 5 879 711 2 261 1 166 1 850 2 047 2 349 683 408 227 104 240 36 1990/1992 2005/2007 2015 2030 2050 1990 1992 1994 1996 Under 2000 Kcal/person/day 2000-2500 2500-3000 >3000 Total Popultion 6 839 2 631 3 489 1998 2000 2002 2004 7 671 3 362 4 069 2006 26
Page 1 and 2: WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
Page 3 and 4: Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
Page 5 and 6: Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
Page 7 and 8: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
Page 9 and 10: PROOF COPY producing countries rema
Page 11 and 12: PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
Page 13 and 14: PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
Page 15 and 16: PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
Page 17 and 18: PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
Page 19 and 20: PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
Page 21 and 22: PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
Page 23 and 24: PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
Page 25 and 26: PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
Page 27 and 28: PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
Page 29 and 30: PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
Page 31: PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
Page 35 and 36: PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
Page 37 and 38: PROOF COPY by people. In particular
Page 39 and 40: PROOF COPY production potential. Th
Page 41 and 42: PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
Page 43 and 44: PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
Page 45 and 46: PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
Page 47 and 48: PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
Page 49 and 50: PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
Page 51 and 52: PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
Page 53 and 54: PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61 and 62: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
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PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
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PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
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PROOF COPY countries in per capita
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PROOF COPY associated with such lar
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
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PROOF COPY The production of biodie
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PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
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3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
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PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
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PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
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PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
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PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
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PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
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PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
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PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
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PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
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PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
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PROOF COPY products facing finite n
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PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
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PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
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PROOF COPY The developed countries
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PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
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PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
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PROOF COPY million ha at an average
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PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
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PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
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PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
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PROOF COPY under way for some time,
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PROOF COPY Livestock production is
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Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
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Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
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PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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