World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY 2.1.2 The incidence of undernourishment 16 – past and present The latest FAO assessment (FAO, 2010), estimates the total incidence of undernourishment in the developing countries at 827 million persons in 2005/07 17 (16 percent of their population – Table 2.2), when average food consumption reached 2620 kcal/person/day. This estimate is not significantly different from that of fifteen years earlier, the 3-year average 1990/92 was 810 million, but then it represented a higher proportion of their total population (20 percent). The 3-year average 1990/92 was the base used by the 1996 WFS in setting the target of halving the numbers undernourished in the developing countries by 2015 at the latest. Thus, there has been no progress at all towards the halving target in the first fifteen years of the period to 2015. The significant declines achieved in East Asia (mainly China) were compensated by increases in the other two regions with the highest concentrations – sub- Saharan Africa and, particularly, South Asia. If these trends continued, the halving target will certainly not be achieved by 2015 and whatever further reductions take place will further accentuate the differences among regions and countries. Table 2.2 Incidence of undernourishment, developing countries 1990/ 1992 Percent of population Million 2005/ 2007 2015 2030 2050 1990/ 1992 2005/ 2007 2015 2030 2050 Comparison 1999/2001 SOFI 2010 SOFI 2010 New* Old Developing countries 19.7 15.9 11.7 7.9 4.1 810 827 687 543 318 794 811 Excluding South Asia 19.1 13.5 9.8 6.9 4.1 555 496 408 333 225 515 511 Sub-Saharan Africa 33.6 27.6 21.4 14.5 7.1 165 201 195 180 119 198 201 Near East / North Africa Latin America 6.0 7.4 6.0 4.7 3.4 15 32 30 29 25 31 39 and the Caribbean 12.2 8.5 6.3 4.1 2.5 54 47 38 28 18 51 55 South Asia 21.5 21.8 16.1 10.5 4.2 255 331 216 211 93 279 299 East Asia 19.2 11.0 6.8 4.2 2.8 321 279 143 94 62 232 216 * The estimates for the 1999/01 should have been higher than the ones of the Interim Report of 2006 because of the lower kcal/person/day (Table 2.1). They are lower because the MDER for that year has been revised downwards (developing country simple average from 1842 to 1781), more than compensating for the effect of the lower kcal/person/day. 16 The term “undernourishment” is used to refer to the status of persons whose food intake does not provide enough calories to meet their basic energy requirements. The term “undernutrition” denotes the status of persons whose anthropometric measurements indicate the outcome not only, or not necessarily, of inadequate food intake but also of poor health and sanitation – conditions that may prevent them from deriving full nutritional benefit from what they eat (FAO, 1999: 6). 17 SOFI 2010 shows 835 million, because it includes in the developing countries the Central and Western Asian ones of the former USSR. 27
PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of undernourishment measure the extent of deficiencies in dietary energy intakes. Malnourishment due to other causes, such as deficiencies in micronutrients or inadequate absorption of the energy embodied in the food actually ingested is not accounted for in these estimates. Changes in the incidence of undernourishment 18 in each country are close correlates of changes in (a) the food consumption level (kcal/person/day), (b) the difference between it and the Minimum Dietary Energy Requirements (MDER) and (c) an index of inequality (Box 2.1). The MDER varies with changes in population structure (age and sex distribution) 19 . Such structure has changed over the period in question (between 1990/92 and 2005/07) with the result that the average MDER of the developing countries increased by some 40 kcal/person/day. If it were not for this change, the undernourished in 2005/07 would have been 80 million fewer that the 827 million shown in Table 2.2 Box 2.1 Measuring the incidence of undernourishment: the key role of the estimates of food available for direct human consumption 1 The key data used for estimating the incidence of undernourishment are those of food available for direct human consumption. These data are derived in the framework of the national Food Balance Sheets (FBS). The latter are constructed on the basis of countries' reports on their production and trade of food commodities, after estimates and/or allowances are made for nonfood uses and for losses. Population data are used to express these food availabilities in per capita terms. The resulting numbers are taken as proxies for actual national average food consumption. For many countries the thus estimated per capita food consumption of the different commodities (expressed in kcal/person/day) are totally inadequate for good nutrition, hence the relatively high estimates of the incidence of undernourishment reported for them, most recently in FAO (2010). This conclusion is inferred from a comparison of the estimated kcal/person/day shown in the FBS data with what would be required for good nutrition. The parameters for the latter are well known, though not devoid of controversy. In the first place, there is the amount of dietary energy that is needed for the human body to function even without allowing for movement or activity. This is the Basal Metabolic Rate (BMR). It is in the general range 1300-1700 kcal/day for adults in different conditions (age, sex, height, bodyweight). Taking the age/sex structure and bodyweights of the adult populations of the different developing countries, their national average BMRs for adults are defined. These refer to the amount of energy as a national average per adult person that must be actually absorbed if all were in a state of rest. For children, in addition to the BMR, an allowance is made for the growth requirements. When an allowance for light activity (the Physical Activity Level – PAL, about 55 percent of the BMR, see FAO, 2008) is added, there result MDER values for the different developing countries that range between 1690 kcal and 1930 kcal/person/day (simple average: 1796), given their population structures in 2005/07. As noted, the average was lower by 40 kcal/person/day in 1990/92. Its increase explains in part why the numbers undernourished did not decline from the Base year of the WFS target. The average will rise further to 1840 kcal in 2030 and to 1860 in 2050 as the demographic structure changes with a rising proportion of adults: the Median age of the different developing countries rises from a range 15-37 years at present to 20-54 in 2050 – (UN, 2009). The rise in MDER means that ceteris paribus more food will be needed per person just to meet the population’s minimum requirements. 18 The methodology of estimation is described in FAO (2008). 19 In a specified sex and age group, the MDER is the amount of dietary energy per person that is considered adequate to meet the energy needs for minimum acceptable weight for attained-height, maintaining a healthy life and carrying out a sedentary physical activity level. In the entire population, the MDER is the weighted average of the MDERs of the different sex and age groups in the population. 28
Page 1 and 2: WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
Page 3 and 4: Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
Page 5 and 6: Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
Page 7 and 8: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
Page 9 and 10: PROOF COPY producing countries rema
Page 11 and 12: PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
Page 13 and 14: PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
Page 15 and 16: PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
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Page 23 and 24: PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
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Page 27 and 28: PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
Page 29 and 30: PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
Page 31 and 32: PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
Page 33: PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
Page 37 and 38: PROOF COPY by people. In particular
Page 39 and 40: PROOF COPY production potential. Th
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Page 45 and 46: PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
Page 47 and 48: PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
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Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
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Page 63 and 64: PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
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PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
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PROOF COPY countries in per capita
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PROOF COPY associated with such lar
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
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PROOF COPY The production of biodie
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PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
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3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
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PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
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PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
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PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
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PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
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PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
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PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
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PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
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PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
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PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
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PROOF COPY products facing finite n
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PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
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PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
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PROOF COPY The developed countries
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PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
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PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
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PROOF COPY million ha at an average
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PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
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PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
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PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
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PROOF COPY under way for some time,
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PROOF COPY Livestock production is
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Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
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Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
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PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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