World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY overestimate real income growth, as evidenced by the large differences with the National Accounts, something which the authors accept in part: “the NSS is almost certainly missing some of the growth, and the NAS is almost certainly overstating it”. The authors explore several reasons why food consumption per capita is falling rather than increasing, e.g. changes in real relative prices, in household age composition, in food habits, reduction in dietary energy requirements because of reduced physical activity level and improved health environment. Such reduction is thought to be an important explanatory factor why average calorie consumption has declined. An additional often cited explanation is the shift in consumption towards more high-value foods, such as milk, vegetables, meat, etc 34 . Figure A.2.1.3 Indian data: kcal/person/day and consumption expenditure per capita (Rs/month) Kcal/person/day 2 300 2 200 2 100 2 000 1 900 1 800 1 700 1 600 1 500 Kcal Rural Kcal Urban Expenditure Rural (right axis) Expenditure Urban (right) 1983 1987–8 1993–4 1999–0 2000–1 2001–2 2002(2) 2003 2004(1) 2004-5 Source: Deaton and Dreze (2008): Tables 1 and 2. Year of National Sample Survey (NSS) Lisa Smith (2011) considers that data underestimate the improvements in food consumption in recent years. She considers that “There are many signs that the food and nutrition situation has improved during India’s rapid economic growth (minus obesity and NCDs)” and puts forward the hypothesis that “The single most important measurement issue is that data on foods consumed away from home and of prepared/processed foods consumed at home are not being adequately measured”. If this hypothesis were to prove true it would raise the problem of how to reconcile the resulting higher consumption data with the food availabilities coming from the food balance sheets. The additional food consumed must come from production or imports or by reducing the estimates for non-food uses of food 34 “… as income rises, households generally diversify their food consumption pattern by shifting towards highvalue and high-quality food items” (Kumar et al., 2007). 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Expenditure (rs/month at prices of the 93-4 NSS round) 55
PROOF COPY commodities and waste. Figure A.2.1.1 shows that at least for cereals such estimates (the gap between food use and total disappearance) offer limited scope for downward revision since the gap has not been increasing. This leaves the production data as candidate for possible upward revisions (see discussion below on the meat, particularly poultry, production data). A recent study undertaken for the United Kingdom Foresight report (The Government Office for Science, 2011, hereafter referred to as Foresight), by Gaiha et al. (2010) highlights the importance of reduced energy requirements but also emphasizes that their analyses of changes in calories show consistently robust food price and expenditure effects. Some observers (Patnaik, 2010a,b) note that the explanation why per capita food consumption has been declining is more mundane and conventional and there is no paradox to explain: using alternative deflators to calculate real per capita expenditure it is argued that it has been falling for almost all income groups; this explains why food consumption has declined. Deaton and Dreze (2010a, b) reply: “we do find it difficult to believe that 90 percent of the urban population was worse off in 2004-05 than in 1993-94, and even more so, that average real spending declined in both rural and urban areas in that period, as if the economy’s entire income growth had been stashed away in Swiss bank accounts”. In addition, the World Bank estimates of poverty rates show significant declines over the period in question 35 . Apparently, the puzzle remains. The case for the possibility that India’s experience is an example of how rapid economic fails to translate into improved nutrition should not be lightly dismissed: Dreze and Sen (2011) conclude that “We hope that the puzzle with which we began is a little clearer now. India’s recent development experience includes both spectacular success as well as massive failure. The growth record is very impressive, but there has also been a failure to ensure that rapid growth translates into better living conditions” In an attempt to survey other views on how food consumption per capita may develop in the future, we examine briefly existing recent projections of demand in India. Figure A.2.1.4 shows two 10-year projections to 2019 made in 2010 with models of world demand, supply and trade of agricultural commodities, that of the OECD-FAO (OECD-FAO, 2010) and that of FAPRI (FAPRI, 2010). However, they cover only the main commodities (e.g. they do not include roots/tubers, fruit, vegetables, pulses, etc) and do not project nutrient indicators like calories. In general, they show in various degrees increases in the per capita food consumption of all commodities covered. In particular, and contrary to trends in the national data of India, they project no declines in the per capita food consumption of cereals but rather marginal increases over the period to 2019. Meat per capita is projected to increase but India will still have very low consumption in ten years time, nothing like the increases experienced by other countries with high income growth. Substantial increases are projected for vegetable oils and sugar, both high calorie-content foods. By implication, calories per capita should also increase, given that these three commodities (cereals, sugar and vegetable oils) provide some 80 percent of total calories. In conclusion, the Indian food projections derived from world models imply that, contrary to the trends in the historical data in the Indian sources, calories per capita would be increasing. 35 http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/povcalSvy.html 56
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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050
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Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This pa
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Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 India: fo
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PROOF COPY producing countries rema
Page 11 and 12: PROOF COPY may fall from 2.3 billio
Page 13 and 14: PROOF COPY Minimum Dietary Energy R
Page 15 and 16: PROOF COPY Concerning the main prod
Page 17 and 18: PROOF COPY vegetable oil imports fo
Page 19 and 20: PROOF COPY constraints can be signi
Page 21 and 22: PROOF COPY Figure 1.8 Irrigated are
Page 23 and 24: PROOF COPY Figure 1.9 World cereals
Page 25 and 26: PROOF COPY for both food and non-fo
Page 27 and 28: PROOF COPY 2050, reaching a peak of
Page 29 and 30: PROOF COPY 436 million in the over
Page 31 and 32: PROOF COPY CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR
Page 33 and 34: PROOF COPY Figure 2.1 kcal/person/d
Page 35 and 36: PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
Page 37 and 38: PROOF COPY by people. In particular
Page 39 and 40: PROOF COPY production potential. Th
Page 41 and 42: PROOF COPY Table: Growth in Populat
Page 43 and 44: PROOF COPY (Figure2.6), at 7.4 bill
Page 45 and 46: PROOF COPY Table 2.4 GDP assumption
Page 47 and 48: PROOF COPY Modest reductions in the
Page 49 and 50: PROOF COPY Such optimism notwithsta
Page 51 and 52: PROOF COPY in North Africa have hig
Page 53 and 54: PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
Page 55 and 56: PROOF COPY The other major commodit
Page 57 and 58: PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
Page 59 and 60: PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
Page 61: PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
Page 65 and 66: PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
Page 67 and 68: PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
Page 69 and 70: PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
Page 71 and 72: PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
Page 73 and 74: PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
Page 75 and 76: PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
Page 77 and 78: PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
Page 79 and 80: PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
Page 81 and 82: PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
Page 83 and 84: PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
Page 85 and 86: PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
Page 87 and 88: PROOF COPY countries in per capita
Page 89 and 90: PROOF COPY associated with such lar
Page 91 and 92: PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
Page 93 and 94: PROOF COPY The production of biodie
Page 95 and 96: PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
Page 97 and 98: 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
Page 99 and 100: PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
Page 101 and 102: PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
Page 103 and 104: PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
Page 105 and 106: PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
Page 107 and 108: PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
Page 109 and 110: PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
Page 111 and 112: PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
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PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
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PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
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PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
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PROOF COPY products facing finite n
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PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
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PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
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PROOF COPY The developed countries
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PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
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PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
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PROOF COPY million ha at an average
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PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
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PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
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PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
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PROOF COPY under way for some time,
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PROOF COPY Livestock production is
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Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
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Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
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PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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