World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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Non-food industrial uses. We noted earlier the inadequacy of the statistics on vegetable
oils used for non-food industrial purposes. We also noted that some of the industrial products
resulting from such use have high income elasticities of demand. In addition, vegetable oils
are increasingly used as feedstocks for production of biofuels. There is, therefore, a prima
facie case to believe that the share of total vegetable oil production going to non-food
industrial uses will continue to grow fairly rapidly. In this “limited biofuels” scenario (Annex
3.1), the above mentioned 7 million tonnes estimated to be used for biofuels in the base year
are increased to 29 million tonnes in 2020 and remain constant for the remaining projection
years.
Overall, the demand for industrial non-food uses of vegetable oils is projected to grow
at rates above those of the demand for food (1.7 percent p.a., versus 1.4 percent p.a. over the
projection period to 2050). A glimpse on prospects beyond 2019 can be obtained from the
recently released biofuels projections of FAPRI (2011) going to 2025: it has an increase of
world vegetable oils use for biodiesel for 2019 lower than that of OECD-FAO (2010: Figure
4.8) used here and it projects a slowdown for the remaining period to 2025 (14 percent
increase from 2019-2025). According to these projections, the boost to the oilseeds sector
coming from biofuels may be weakening over time. However, the uncertainty surrounding
these projections must be emphasized, as much depends on energy sector developments and
policies.
Trade. The projected fairly buoyant growth in demand and the still considerable
potential for expansion of production in some of the major exporters, suggest that past trade
patterns will continue for some time. That is, imports in most developing countries will
continue to grow at a fast pace, matched by continued export growth of the main exporters
(Table 3.7). The potential for further production and export increases of several developing
countries and the continued growth of demand for non-food uses in developed countries
together imply that the net export surplus of the developing countries will keep growing over
the medium term. However, this trend may be halted in the longer term under our scenario
assumptions of biofuels use levelling off after 2020. The developing net exporter countries
may come to depend increasingly for their exports on the growth of imports into the importing
developing countries (Table 3.7).
Production. Production issues are discussed in Chapter 4in terms of individual crops
listed in Table 3.6. Cotton is included among these crops because it contributes some 4
percent of world oil production, though projected production is determined in the context of
world demand-supply balance of cotton fibre rather than oil. Production growth rates for the
major oilcrops are shown in Table 3.6. As noted, oilcrop production has been responsible for
a good part of the area expansion under crops in the developing countries. This will continue
in the future: some 50 percent of the harvested area expansion in the developing countries
under the main crops listed above will be due to the expansion of the oilcrops between
2005/07 and 2050. Such expansion denotes the relatively land-intensive nature of oilcrop
production. Oilcrops are in fact predominantly rainfed, with only 12 percent of the land
irrigated, compared to about 40 percent for cereals in developing countries.
Given such land-intensive nature of oilcrops, the question whether there is enough land
for such expansion without seriously threatening forest or other ecologically valuable areas
must be posed. Expansion of soybeans in Brazil and the oilpalm in Southeast Asia are often
cited as major contributors to deforestation and habitat disturbance. Land use issues are
discussed in Chapter 4 Suffice to say here that early enthusiasm with the environmental or
energy security benefits of biofuels are increasingly being questioned. The latest evaluation is
vividly set out in the 2011 report of the Nuffield Council on Bioethics (2011).
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