World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision - Fao

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PROOF COPY World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision Nikos Alexandratos and Jelle Bruinsma Global Perspective Studies Team FAO Agricultural Development Economics Division Abstract This paper is a re-make of Chapters 1-3 of the Interim Report World Agriculture: towards 2030/2050 (FAO, 2006). In addition, this new paper includes a Chapter 4 on production factors (land, water, yields, fertilizers). Revised and more recent data have been used as basis for the new projections, as follows: (a) updated historical data from the Food Balance Sheets 1961-2007 as of June 2010; (b) undernourishment estimates from The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2010 (SOFI) and related new parameters (CVs, minimum daily energy requirements) are used in the projections; (c) new population data and projections from the UN World Population Prospects - Revision of 2008; (d) new GDP data and projections from the World Bank; (e) anew base year of 2005/07 (the previous edition used the base year 1999/01); (f) updated estimates of land resources from the new evaluation of the Global Agroecological Zones (GAEZ) study of FAO and IIASA; (g) updated estimates of existing irrigation, renewable water resources and potentials for irrigation expansion; and (h) changes in the text as required by the new historical data and projections. Like the interim report, this re-make does not include projections for the Fisheries and Forestry sectors. Calories from fish are, however, included, in the food consumption projections, along with those from other commodities (e.g. spices) not analysed individually; and estimates of land under forest and in protected areas from the GAEZ are taken into account and excluded from the estimates of land areas suitable for crop production into which agriculture could expand in the future. The projections presented reflect the magnitudes and trajectories we estimate the major food and agriculture variables may assume in the future; they are not meant to reflect how these variables may be required to evolve in the future in order to achieve some normative objective, e.g. ensure food security for all, eliminate undernourishment or reduce it to any given desired level, or avoid food overconsumption leading to obesity and related Non- Communicable Diseases. Keywords: agricultural outlook, food demand, production growth, nutrition, crop production, global outlook, land use, irrigation demand, crop yields JEL classification: FO1, O13, Q11, Q17, Q18, Q21, Q24, Q25 i
Acknowledgements PROOF COPY This paper was prepared by Nikos Alexandratos (Chapters 1, 2 and 3 and the related quantifications) and Jelle Bruinsma (Chapter 4) who also performed the underlying calculations except for the calculation of water requirements in irrigation which was performed by Jippe Hoogeveen. Comments by Kostas Stamoulis, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Piero Conforti, Seth Meyer and the provision of data and projections by the team that prepared the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook are gratefully acknowledged, as are comments on Chapter 4 by Günther Fischer, Harrij van Velthuizen and Freddy Nachtergaele (on GAEZ), Jean-Marc Faurès, Jacob Burke and Jippe Hoogeveen (on irrigation), Simon Mack (on livestock), Jan Poulisse, Harold van der Zande and Patrick Heffer (on fertilizers). The authors alone are responsible for any remaining errors. The opinions expressed in this paper are the authors’ and do not necessarily reflect those of FAO. Citation Alexandratos, N. and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision. ESA Working paper No. 12-03. Rome, FAO. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. In the presentation of statistical material, countries are, where appropriate, aggregated in the following main economic groupings: “Developed countries” (including the developed market economies or ‘Industrial countries’ and the Transition countries) and “Developing countries”. The designation “developed” and “developing” economies is intended for statistical convenience and does not necessarily express a judgement about the stage of development reached by a particular country ii
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Page 5 and 6: Boxes PROOF COPY Box 1.1 Measuring
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Page 35 and 36: PROOF COPY The FAO estimates of und
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PROOF COPY (which in our data appea
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PROOF COPY The other major commodit
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PROOF COPY Table 2.6 Changes in the
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PROOF COPY • Despite this slow pa
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PROOF COPY undernourishment and the
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PROOF COPY commodities and waste. F
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PROOF COPY Where does this leave us
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PROOF COPY Figure A.2.1.6 shows the
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PROOF COPY cereals for ethanol 41 .
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PROOF COPY consumption was heavily
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.2 Net agricultu
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PROOF COPY It is noted, however, th
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.4 Per capita fo
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PROOF COPY 2005/07. 45 Not all of t
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PROOF COPY Table 3.3 Net trade bala
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PROOF COPY growth in the ruminant s
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PROOF COPY Table 3.4 Meat: aggregat
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PROOF COPY countries in per capita
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PROOF COPY associated with such lar
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.8 World feed us
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PROOF COPY The production of biodie
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PROOF COPY the exports of the two m
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3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 3.5
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PROOF COPY the two factors that mak
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PROOF COPY Net exports from develop
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PROOF COPY Figure 3.14 Sugar net tr
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PROOF COPY Climate change In evalua
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PROOF COPY Table 4.1 Increases in p
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PROOF COPY involved are considerabl
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PROOF COPY cropping intensities (6
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PROOF COPY No data exist on total h
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PROOF COPY Box 4.2 Agro-ecological
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PROOF COPY under cultivation. It is
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PROOF COPY products facing finite n
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PROOF COPY place in sub-Saharan Afr
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PROOF COPY The bulk of arable land
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.7 Area equipped
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PROOF COPY The developed countries
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PROOF COPY 4.2.5 Irrigation water r
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PROOF COPY harvested irrigated area
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PROOF COPY Figure 4.10 Annual growt
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PROOF COPY million ha at an average
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PROOF COPY producers 81 are about h
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PROOF COPY the often unfavourable a
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PROOF COPY Table 4.15 Fertilizer co
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PROOF COPY Livestock production is
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Argentina Bolivia (Plurinational St
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Wheat Rice Maize Barley Millet Sorg
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PROOF COPY and yields by irrigated
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PROOF COPY References Alexandratos,
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PROOF COPY FAO (1996), Food, Agricu
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PROOF COPY Ma, Hengyun, Jikun Huang
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PROOF COPY van der Mensbrugghe, D.,
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